Frances Advisories

[Lebowsky]

Thanks for giving us your thoughts. I'm feeling a lot better ... the thought of that thing coming in at 155 mph had me terrified.

Still a strong storm, but maybe not enough to destroy everything in its path.

If it weakens further I will be happy dancing for a week.

[cape_escape]

Amazing how strong and dangerous Frances was and now only to be a shell of her former storm...as this thing falls apart the Weather experts look like they cried wolf and unnecessary panic

It's responses like this thaat make it even harder for we "regular" folks to get any answers, because, the Pros wont want to take chances on telling us anything!

[BayouVenteux]

...However I can't help but feel like we really dodged a bullet with Francesin Fla..

Perhaps. Perhaps not. Still plenty of time for some reintensification. With the amount of warm gulf stream water between Frances and Florida, I would hope that the local media up and down the coast is not overplaying the weakening that has taken place. They should know better by now.

And on top of this, it's lock and load yet again in the east central Atlantic this morning.

[Air Force Met]

Steve Lyons is an idiot when it comes to tropical forecasting

Steve Lyons was one of my profs at Texas A&M. I assure you he's forgotten more about tropical meteorology than you will ever know.

[Guest]

I think Frances turns around and heads back to the Keys and then into the GOM.

[Air Force Met]

Refer to official NHC products.

doesnt TWC use the same products??

Yes TWC refers to official NHC forecasts. There is very little tolerance for the OCMs to deviate fromthe offical forecast. The station pretty much required them to tow the party line.

[Brent]

Forecast to remain at that until landfall.

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 39

Statement as of 15:00Z on September 03, 2004

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
central and northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued from north
of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.

At 11 am EDT...1500z..the Hurricane Watch for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay has been discontinued.

Hurricane center located near 25.5n 76.7w at 03/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 957 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 70ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt.......120ne 90se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt.......160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 25.5n 76.7w at 03/1500z
at 03/1200z center was located near 25.3n 76.3w

forecast valid 04/0000z 26.3n 77.6w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 27.0n 79.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 27.5n 80.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 28.5n 81.5w...inland
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt...120ne 90se 50sw 40nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 80sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 30.5n 83.5w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 07/1200z 33.5n 85.9w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Outlook valid 08/1200z 38.0n 84.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.5n 76.7w

next advisory at 03/2100z

forecaster Avila

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 39

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 03, 2004

data from an Air Force plane indicate that the inner core or eyewall
of Frances has deteriorated since yesterday and the central pressure
has risen to 959 mb. In addition...some upper-level southwesterly
winds are currently creating some shear over the hurricane
disrupting the cloud pattern. This means that the hurricane has
weakened and the initial intensity has been lowered to 100 knots.
However...Frances is still a dangerous hurricane. There is plenty
of time...about 36 hours before landfall...for changes in the inner
structure of the hurricane to occur...while the hurricane moves
over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. This could easily lead to
re-intensification. However...at this time...the initial intensity
calls for a 100-knot hurricane at landfall.

Frances is moving between the west-northwest and northwest about 8
knots. The subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place
forcing the hurricane toward the Florida East Coast...but because
steering currents are expected to weaken further...the hurricane
will likely slow down on its way to Florida. This could delay the
landfall a few more hours. Numerical guidance continues to bring
the hurricane over Florida during the next 2 to 3 days.

Because Frances is a slow moving hurricane...it could bring
torrential rains to portions of Florida.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/1500z 25.5n 76.7w 100 kt
12hr VT 04/0000z 26.3n 77.6w 100 kt
24hr VT 04/1200z 27.0n 79.0w 100 kt
36hr VT 05/0000z 27.5n 80.0w 100 kt
48hr VT 05/1200z 28.5n 81.5w 55 kt...inland
72hr VT 06/1200z 30.5n 83.5w 35 kt...inland
96hr VT 07/1200z 33.5n 85.9w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 08/1200z 38.0n 84.5w 25 kt...inland

[spaceisland]

You go, AF Met!!! Never judge somebody you do not know! Thanks for standing up for your teacher...

...I am a little sensitive, because I am a teacher...
and I hope for such good words from my students someday!!!

[Andrew92]

I'm beginning to think that Frances is bipolar. Either that or lacking brains. One or the other.

Stay safe Florida! You guys are all in my prayers!

-Andrew92

[Terry]

This came in prior to the more intense hit they are surely taking now.

Man-O-War Cay (MOW) is one of the string of cays off of the big island of Great Abaco and near to Marsh Harbor (on Great Abaco) where TWC has been broadcasting from.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10:15 AM. Just made phone contact with MOW. Highest gusts recorded in area by 8AM were ~75 but gusts well in excess of that have since been experienced. Coconuts long gone from trees. Leaves are really starting to be stripped off trees and some broken branches observed.
Barometer Bob local on VHF but hampered by lack of internet access.

[Sanibel]

It's obvious people are avoiding mentioning the possibility of a third major taking aim on Florida in Ivan...

[c5Camille]

5 day forcast shifts right a little...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[Deenac813]

I am a little confused on this one. What else is new

Anyway, why does the advisory say NW and the discussion say WNW. Is her motion somewhere in between?

[kevin]

Sanibel.. if that happens, I might go crazy.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

5 day forcast shifts right a little...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

that says 8am

[Canelaw99]

Yeah, Sanibel, folks aren't even paying attention to Ivan down here, and in my opinion, it has a good chance of heading this way. Oh well, at least we got some practice with Frances....

[seahawkjd]

hit refresh on your browser, its archiving on you.

[Brent]

That's the new 5-day projected path.

[Brent]

I am a little confused on this one. What else is new

Anyway, why does the advisory say NW and the discussion say WNW. Is her motion somewhere in between?

Yes. Between WNW and NW.