Frances Advisories

#3501 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:57 am

seahawkjd wrote:hit refresh on your browser, its archiving on you.

i did several times ...still 8 am

JQ Public · #3502 Postby **JQ Public** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:57 am

actually it says NW for 11am?

caneman · #3503 Postby **caneman** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:58 am

Brent wrote:
Deenac813 wrote:I am a little confused on this one. What else is new

Anyway, why does the advisory say NW and the discussion say WNW. Is her motion somewhere in between?

Yes. Between WNW and NW.

Here we go with all the Northern folks again. PLot the coordinates and you will see they expect it to be back on a WNW course in 12 hours.

c5Camille · #3504 Postby **c5Camille** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:58 am

it said 11am when i posted... here it is again...
let me know if that works.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

#3505 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:59 am

Thanks again Brent, you have been very helpful to me today!

#3506 Postby **Lowpressure** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:00 am

Latest recon mentioning an open eyewall. Before it did not list an eye at all.

#3507 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:00 am

c5Camille wrote:it said 11am when i posted... here it is again...
let me know if that works.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

gezzz no...i have refreshed, closed opened browser......oh well...

PanAmMIA · #3508 Postby **PanAmMIA** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:02 am

Wouldn't the possible track from Weather Underground be a bit far to the west considering a front expected to move through the midwest at the same time. That should push the rain and slight wind event more to the mid-Atlantic region than the Ohio River area.
Mike

caneman · #3509 Postby **caneman** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:02 am

000
WTNT41 KNHC 031446
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL
OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO
RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

FRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FORCING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT BECAUSE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THE HURRICANE
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN ON ITS WAY TO FLORIDA. THIS COULD DELAY THE
LANDFALL A FEW MORE HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.5N 76.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.3N 77.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.5N 85.9W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$

#3510 Postby **seahawkjd** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:02 am

My theory, not only is Frances slowing down and driving everyone crazy, its starting to bend time in Charleston so that it will be 8am indefinetely

Anonymous · #3511 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:03 am

That's my point...even the so-called weather experts are clueless on storms like this one...even novice weather watchers can track and interpert data as well if not better in some cases.

Website · #3512 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:03 am

I'm not on the Carolinas bandwagon Caneman. I still believe this is going to Florida. All I was doing was answering her question about the motion.

#3513 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:03 am

seahawkjd wrote:My theory, not only is Frances slowing down and driving everyone crazy, its starting to bend time in Charleston so that it will be 8am indefinetely

that was too funny.. thanks I needed the humor! :wink:

Lebowsky · #3514 Postby **Lebowsky** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:06 am

NHC site is slow inupdating the projected path map.

#3515 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:07 am

YEAH...SURE ARE...

#3516 Postby **seaswing** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:08 am

[/quote]Yes TWC refers to official NHC forecasts. There is very little tolerance for the OCMs to deviate fromthe offical forecast. The station pretty much required them to tow the party line.[/quote]

I never met S. Lyons but before his time was John Hope and he was a fantastic met IMO. I thought I heard somewhere that Steve Lyons used to work for NHC?

#3517 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:08 am

Hyperstorm wrote:
Great metaphor!

Now there's a meteor heading for Florida?!:!:!

ROFL

krisj · #3518 Postby **krisj** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:10 am

Huh, seahawkjd?

#3519 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:10 am

FLAGLER TO FERNANDINA BEACH

Website · #3520 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:12 am

What's the big deal? :roll:

The track isn't any farther north. How many times do I have to say this is not going to the Carolinas!!!!

Frances Advisories

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HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED TO THE GA. BORDER

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