Frances Advisories

Website · #3521 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:13 am

New 5-day track.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Tuesday Morning position is about 50 miles NW of here.

caneman · #3522 Postby **caneman** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:13 am

Brent wrote:I'm not on the Carolinas bandwagon Caneman. I still believe this is going to Florida. All I was doing was answering her question about the motion.

Brent, I wasn't talking about you. The 11:00 discussion I believe has it at the same location in 48 hours as the 5:00 discussion does. Seems like it just more of a matter of does it come in at West palm, Vero or that type of thing.

chadtm80 · #3523 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:13 am

Track a lil more North east as a matter of fact

However I am NOT saying its going to SC

#3524 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:13 am

I am only posting what I hear....ask TWC or whoever issued the watch?? I dunno??

krisj · #3525 Postby **krisj** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:14 am

NO way! WHere did you hear/Read this? (Not doubting you, just surprised). I thought by now that the landfall general area was set in stone. Nothing I can find has been updated.

krisj · #3526 Postby **krisj** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:14 am

Okay, thanks, I missed the above pic.

Guest · #3527 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:15 am

Brent wrote:What's the big deal? The track isn't any farther north. How many times do I have to say this is not going to the Carolinas!!!!

CONCERNS ABOUT A NON-HIT TO FLORIDA GROWING....

I maybe wrong this morning by saying this, but I'm very concerned that Frances glances Florida and heads towards South Carolina. Here's why...

1. The storm has slowed down and is about even with the southern tip of Florida, so nay dramatic turn to the west will not happen until later in the game if it does at all.

2. Radar now shows the eye of the storm passing over the north shore of Eleuthera Island on a more north-northwest course.

3. The trough over Arkansas is lifting northeast and is actually blocking any westward advance of the storm. Check the cloud and moisture movement on the Water Vapor imagery.

4. Once the Arkansas trough lifts northeast, the ridge will re-build across the East in the advance of the western trough. The ridge axis in 48 hours will be from the eastern Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle. The storm will sense the axis and try to head towards the center point which will bring the storm towards South Carolina.

Look folks, this has been a concern all along. I know I have been bullish on a Florida hit, but as I have watched things evolve this morning, I'm growing more concerned that we have another Floyd type track. That's not to say that folks in Florida should head back home. They should continue prepare and follow local FEMA and EMA's directions.

The 12z model runs are about to come in

#3528 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:15 am

At 11:00 the watch was issued on TWC!

quickychick · #3529 Postby **quickychick** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:16 am

Wunderground.com usually kicks the projected path map out a lot quicker than the NHC, odd.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Website · #3530 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:18 am

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:YEAH...SURE ARE...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

THAT IS IT!!!

#3531 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:18 am

O.K..what wrong? that map is saying 5 am for me ...also wundergrounds too! I have deleted cookies, refreshed, closed my browser, anything else to do? help!

rjp · #3532 Postby **rjp** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:22 am

That map is wrong.

[/img]

Lindaloo · #3533 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:23 am

How is it wrong?

#3534 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:23 am

thanks! i thought it was me... :wink:

rjp · #3535 Postby **rjp** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:24 am

Lindaloo wrote:How is it wrong?

Because it was from 5AM, not 11AM.

Website · #3536 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:24 am

NO!

That is the updated map. :roll:

INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.5N 76.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.3N 77.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.5N 85.9W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND

Plot the points.

Lebowsky · #3537 Postby **Lebowsky** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:24 am

NHC track looks the same to me:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 0253W5.gif

Maybe a tad right?

EverythingIsEverything · #3538 Postby **EverythingIsEverything** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:25 am

And gas stations are empty..no gas. The evacuation process is just disasterous. If gas stations are running out of gas, and cars are stranded on the interstate because of it, i wonder what the Governor of Fl. plans to do to remedy this situation or is everyone basically on there own?

Lindaloo · #3539 Postby **Lindaloo** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:25 am

That is what I thought. Thanks Brent.

#3540 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:27 am

Well, I doubt that Jeb will be out hauling gas cans to stranded cars. Seems like this is just one of the awful hazards of mass evacuation. :roll:

Frances Advisories

Vehicles Are Running Out of Gas on I-95 in Fl.

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