Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 102037
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2037Z
B. 16 DEG 59 MIN N
76 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2502 M
D. 100 KT
E. 296 DEG 008 NM
F. 021 DEG 118 KT
G. 296 DEG 008 NM
H. 933 MB
I. 09 C/ 3056 M
J. 18 C/ 3065 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 2034Z.

[calidoug]

Last recon was 1913Z

The trouble is, in the meantime, the presentation REALLY improved.

Watch the visible and IR loops through 20:45Z

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

i knew it!

[Stormsfury]

The eyewall has shrunk down from 18 NM earlier down to a circular 15 NM diameter ... also, the pressure of note has come down 4 mb ... it will be interesting to note if frequent lightning is occurring in the eyewall (if so, it usually coincides with a rapid intensification phase) ...

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 102037
      VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
      A. 10/2037Z
      B. 16 DEG 59 MIN N
         76 DEG 00 MIN W
      C. 700 MB 2502 M
      D. 100 KT
      E. 296 DEG 008 NM
      F. 021 DEG 118 KT
      G. 296 DEG 008 NM
      H. 933 MB
      I. 09 C/ 3056 M
      J. 18 C/ 3065 M
      K. 11 C/ NA
      L. CLOSED WALL
      M. C15
      N. 12345/07
      O. .1/1 NM
      P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 19
         MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 2034Z.

[Mattie]

THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER
THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST [b]COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE
TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE[/b]...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.


FORECASTER AVILA

Interesting.

Ok, seriously confused:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE
TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...
(which in my eyes mean further "WEST"

]THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE[/b

which means too far "EAST"

So with all due respect, after reading and looking at several tracking maps in the last few hours, that have said Panhandle . . .

Does it mean move it FARTHER west than that?

[feederband]

[Indystorm]

But if the track is shifted more westward and Ivan proceeds north after Cuba that would mean more time over the Gulf waters to regain strength. I don't think there was that significant a disruption in SST after Charley in that general area.....I also think IR images indicate a deepening hurricane at the moment and would want more recon....I think it's 937mb and falling at this time.

[calidoug]

YUP. Bombing. Like I said.

[Stephanie]

I'm sorry to see that Dean!

It seems Ma Nature wants to make sure she hits Florida at every possible angle!

[greeng13]

calidoug...if you don't mind...what exactly is "bombing"? i've heard it mentioned a few times in the past couple of days

[Brent]

calidoug...if you don't mind...what exactly is "bombing"? i've heard it mentioned a few times in the past couple of days

Strengthening rapidly.

[x-y-no]

That temperature profile looks mighty strong too. This guy is definitely intensifying again.

[chris_fit]

Not suprised at all.

[NorthGaWeather]

Also note the C line about 509m under the standard height of 3011. Also The core temp and surrounding environment temp are about 9 degrees apart. The wall cloud is closed and the C15 shows the eye is contracting. Core relative humidity is lower.

[Scott_inVA]

calidoug...if you don't mind...what exactly is "bombing"? i've heard it mentioned a few times in the past couple of days

Generally speaking, low pressure "bombs out" when the low drops 24mb in 24 hours. Unscientific but generally accepted.

Scott

[ColdFront77]

Scott, I was just ready to respond to "bombing out."

[cycloneye]

Now the presure is dropping like a rock there although the winds are not strong yet but it is a matter of time to see them increase dramatcly.

[Fodie77]

Exactly when is Ivan forecasted to hit Jamaica? Ivan is so close to Jamaica now, don't you think the NHC would issue an update of the storm's intensity if it begins to bomb now?

[PurdueWx80]

calidoug...if you don't mind...what exactly is "bombing"? i've heard it mentioned a few times in the past couple of days

Actually, in meteorological terms, a "bomb" typically refers to an extratropical cyclone that deepens at the rate of approximately 12 mb/12 hours (depends on latitude but that is average). A bomb has nothing to do w/ tropical systems, although the slang term can be used to describe rapid development (bombing out...bombing, etc.).

[JTD]

Interestingly, however, the pressure is down 4 MB (impressive) but the Max Flt level winds from the last vortex are down 6 kts.