Ivan Advisories

[AL Chili Pepper]

my impression is that they truely belive this thing
is going to go further West... and that they are not
going to change the official forcast for fear that
another "Charlie" happens... and the thing slams
east. They don't want to let West coast of Florida
to put there guard down untill they are MUCH more
certain of the track. they are covering there a$$
and i can't blame them... In reality the cone is
supposed to cover this type of fudge for them.

BTW Orrt... you are the MAN! you saw this 2 days ago...

I'm not going to pretend to read the mind of the NHC, but it sure sounds like that. It makes perfect since, being that only a slight error to the east at this angle (a la Charley) could send Ivan storming ashore many miles from the forecast landfall. I'd keep them in the red zone as long as possible.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

aww...a battle of the minds!!

[~SirCane]

I know what ya mean dean. I'm only 1 or 2 counties over from you-in Santa Rosa.

[Stormcenter]

You guys need to read the 5pm discussion and not focus on these model runs. The NHC is already hinting at westward trend. They decided to hold off on any changes this advisory.

Now why would we "need" to do that? If the only purpose of this board were to get the official forecasts and thinking of the NHC, then none of us would "need" to be here at all, and in fact this board wouldn't "need" to be here at all.


If, OTOH one's purpose in being here is to learn something about meteorology, then I'd say we do indeed "need" to focus on model runs.

PS. I have no significant disagreement with the NHC forecast and discussion. It's (as usual) very sensible and appropriate to its purpose. It just so happens not to fulfill my "needs" to look at things in greater depth.


Sorry if that bothers you.

My post was not intended to sound like you were bothering me. I was
just pointing out the NHC discussion in reference to the possibility
of the track shifting westward some.

[calidoug]

Winds are probably in a different location. Also, they tend to follow the pressure down, so to speak.

And yes, I meant "bombing" in the casual "strengthening rapidly" sense.

[greeng13]

a follow up question then...and thanks for the quick reply from all..

if ivan drops 24 (i think was the #)MB in 24 hours (or something like that) isn't that indicative of a major strike about to come?

i'm sorry i'm not getting the numbers right but this was on a thread a few days ago about pressure drops over a 24 hour period...i remember i asked what ivan's drop was on sep 5 when he went from TS to CAT4 i think it was...(if that helps anyone remember what thread the info was on)

thanks again

[CFL]

Looks like a direct hit on Appalachicola there. Let's see what the NHC says at 11pm. I tried to convince myself all day long that the panhandle (with exception of the big bend area) was safe, but previous experience has taught me that forecasts more than 3 days in advance are almost certain to change.

[Stormchaser16]

Well that is in the NW quad...... generally the weakest and most battered of all the quads currently

[calidoug]

A jog back W at 21:15Z

This is gonna be close for the capital...

[cloud_galaxy]

"at 2:50pm EST Montego Bay is heavily overcast with mild to moderate wind gusting and sporadic but frequent rain squalls and medium intensity showers. "

That is what Richard May, Director Environmental Affairs, ofSandals Resorts International, writes on the stormcarib board.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

[Stormsfury]

Interestingly, however, the pressure is down 4 MB (impressive) but the Max Flt level winds from the last vortex are down 6 kts.

Time lag ... one, second, the most intense convection has erupted on the SW eyewall flank ... BTW, the last vortex message is exactly one hour old, and only the beginnings at that time of the VERY deep reds ...

SF

[rainstorm]

they are doing the right thing. they cant take a chance ivan takes a right turn into fla at the last second. they can change the track later.

[JTD]

THANK GOD IT JOGGED BACK WEST.

[soonertwister]

I feel sick to my stomach. Kingston and the rest of Jamaica are starting the descent into hell.

I'm praying for them all. God help them.

[JTD]

Interestingly, however, the pressure is down 4 MB (impressive) but the Max Flt level winds from the last vortex are down 6 kts.

Time lag ... one, second, the most intense convection has erupted on the SW eyewall flank ... BTW, the last vortex message is exactly one hour old, and only the beginnings at that time of the VERY deep reds ...

SF

Got ya SF. Now I understand.

Soonertwister, yes Jamaica is in my prayers as well.

[PTrackerLA]

I've noticed jog back to the west in the past 30 mins. I'm afraid it could pass directly over Kingston. Our prayers should go out to all those in Jamaica as a terrible disaster is about to occur.

[Matthew5]

The hurricane is looking better. Over the last hour the reds have wraped around the eye. With a eye tighting up from 18 to 15 nmi. Pressure is down 7 millibars since this morning with a 4 millibar drop with in the last 2 hours. This thing with out quastion is getting better oreganized. We will just have to see if the recon finds the stronger winds? You made a good call on this looking better!

[Innotech]

winds will pick up soon. 150-155 mph borderline Cat 5 on Jamaica landfall looks likely

[Fodie77]

winds will pick up soon. 150-155 mph borderline Cat 5 on Jamaica landfall looks likely

I pray to God you're wrong, but it does seem more and more likely at this point.

[c5Camille]

they are doing the right thing. they cant take a chance ivan takes a right turn into fla at the last second. they can change the track later.

i hear you... BUT... if they really think this thing is going closer to
Pensacola... they are doing them and people west a disservice...
damned if they do and damned if they dont.

they are telling us in the discussion that they think it's headed more west...

the reality is that less than 1 in 100 people that see the forcast track
will ever read the discussion...