Frances Advisories

[Lowpressure]

It will go north of you, you will get some outer effects but it looks alot better for you today than it did yesterday.

[Wallcloud]

Pressure the same, winds up. Fix to Fix WWNW

http://weather.net-waves.com/td06.php

[TLHR]

I hate to get political, but it's times like these where the National Guard needs to be guarding our nation, not someone else's..

[jinftl]

thanks for the info...i guess even tropical storm force winds and water-soaked soil could lead to some trees down and power outages down here..

[dennis1x1]

link broke....what was the time of new recon......120mph flight level?

[Sanibel]

Here we go. That spiral looks ready to power-up again to me. Perhaps she is regrouping after sorting out the transition under the High. Dry air still feeding in, but she could be starting to feed off the Gulf Stream...

[MWatkins]

So far we just took our first squall...not too bad...but the satellite imagery clearly suggests that there is additional convective development on the western side of the circulation.

I have a friend who will be staying with me...I promised to give them 2 hours notice if I though they should pick up and head over. There are going to be 2 calls.

Call one is load up the car...call two is get over here. I just gave them notice that they should go ahead and prepare to load up the car (pre call 1). Right now they are probably going to need to make a decision by 2PM. Looks like the eye may have wobbled west a little...and with the outer squalls picking up...I think we probably only have a couple of good hours left to get things done.

MW

[kck70]

I saw plenty of National Gaurd after Charley hit...

[Innotech]

Anotherp ossibility is she just ran full force into a high pressure wall, disrupting her at the same time she was doing eyewall replacement and entraining dry air, which added together to weaken her significantly. She may regroup mostly, but I think the area between eyewall and land is diinishing too fast to give her a chance to strengthen much. Cat 3 at landfall, 115-120 mph.

[dennis1x1]

or it was westerly shear.

just a thought..

[SeaBrz_FL]

This is EXACTLY why the Governor and other emergency management have stated at least 10,000 times over the past 4 days: "Evacuate to designated safe areas, but do not leave your county."

[SeaBrz_FL]

Panic is never pretty.

[scogor]

Keep updating, Mike!! Just called our friends here in Sarasota (who were married here during the infamous Elena weekend in 1985) to tell them we'll be able to attend their daughter's Bat Mitzvah this weekend after all. Yes, they were aware that they were tempting fate.

How long before we start feeling the first effects of Frances here in Sarasota?

[Hurricane Cheese]

NHC will likely be slow to raise the winds...just like with Charley....they're much more stubborn and conservative when it comes to raising the winds.

[kevin]

The net waves observation was at 10 o clock.

[x-y-no]

Another thing I noticed ... it barely initializes Ivan. Has him at 850, but not above. Keeps him as a closed circulation at the surface, weak wave above, until 96 hours then loses him.

I don't think that'll verify though - just illustrates the difficulties the GFS has in the tropics.

[Aimless]

(I've been toppingoff my tank daily since last week.... pays to plan )

The gas station's tanks only hold so much gas... it's not like they have some reserve underground tanks to storm more...the POrt of Tampa is closed so that source is out. I heard on the news the gas companies ARE sending more tankers, but only through today as we really do not want a full tanker stuck on I95 through the storm. Too many people who do not need to evacuate are leaving ( people who are already inland).

Everything that can be don is being done.. what else can they ( governement) do?

[ColinD]

Flight level 120 mph is apprx. 108 at the surface. 110 mph then. Just as it has been.

000
URNT12 KNHC 031417
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1417Z
B. 25 DEG 33 MIN N
76 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2733 M
D. 70 KT
E. 316 DEG 078 NM
F. 057 DEG 105 KT
G. 318 DEG 034 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 10 C/ 3087 M
J. 17 C/ 3088 M
K. 012 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. C35
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF861 2106A FRANCES OB 22
MAX FL WIND 105 KT NW QUAD 1407Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 306/007NM
FROM FL CNTR.

[Innotech]

The company I work for is a transport company. to give you an idea of the gas situation,. we dont serve Florida at all usually, but we have dispatched several trucks to Orlando to pull extra loads, and despite htis, they are still runnig out! We get calls every few hourss from Orlando dispatch requesting for more fuel deliveries. During Lili it was about hte same here. Its an interesting perspective to see from the inside how hurricanes affect fuel delivery.

[jdt]

I think that was a flight level wind which would mean about 110 surface.
Not sure on that so someone may want to check. If I am correct she is basically holding her own ATT.