Ivan Advisories
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I couldnt agree more. Yea! Thanks for stepping up on this. I know there are folks in Florida who are hurting too, but there are so many resources available in this country. Like I said in the other post, tell me where to send the check? Or can we set up a Paypal thing. Just need to know who to send it to.
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Brent
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11am Ivan-140 mph winds, Moving WNW at 16
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU
PRINCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU
PRINCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
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Brent
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004
LAST FIX FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED
THAT THE PRESSURE INCREASED TO 955 MB BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE
STILL 133 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THEN...HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NOT AS
DISTINCT AS EARLIER BUT STILL VISIBLE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
120 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SOME SHEAR AND
WILL BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
HURRICANE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THERE
IS HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER SHEAR. SO...IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING CUBA. NEVERTHERELESS...THESE ARE
BASICALLY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
SATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 12.7N 66.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 13.3N 68.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 14.5N 71.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 16.0N 73.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 125 KT NEAR JAMAICA
72HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 79.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 82.0W 125 KT OVER WESTERN CUBA
120HR VT 13/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 115 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004
LAST FIX FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED
THAT THE PRESSURE INCREASED TO 955 MB BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE
STILL 133 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THEN...HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NOT AS
DISTINCT AS EARLIER BUT STILL VISIBLE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
120 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SOME SHEAR AND
WILL BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
HURRICANE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THERE
IS HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER SHEAR. SO...IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING CUBA. NEVERTHERELESS...THESE ARE
BASICALLY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
SATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 12.7N 66.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 13.3N 68.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 14.5N 71.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 16.0N 73.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 125 KT NEAR JAMAICA
72HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 79.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 82.0W 125 KT OVER WESTERN CUBA
120HR VT 13/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 115 KT
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#neversummer
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quickychick
Interesting 11AM Discussion comment
IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
FORECASTER AVILA
---Avila goes for noncommittal this time---
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
FORECASTER AVILA
---Avila goes for noncommittal this time---
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WeatherEmperor
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CaptinCrunch
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WeatherEmperor
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opera ghost
- Category 4
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- Location: Houston, Texas
IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
It seems that they're admitting that it could go either way. Florida may yet manage to dodge!
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
It seems that they're admitting that it could go either way. Florida may yet manage to dodge!
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Anonymous
Think about what people in the Pacific feel who get hit time and time again - year after year with powerful Typhoons and many more weaker tropical systems. Places where homes are much weaker and the Countries economies much less than the USA's.
You really don't have to go that far.
Think about people in central America , Mexico, or even Haiti which get hit time and time again with powerful Hurricanes or weaker tropical storms and the same chaos descends on them with less, much less media coverage than a tropical storm with wind gust to 60 mph and minor flooding gets in Tampa.
Didn't Charley cross western Cuba? I have heard nothing about the effects of that storm there. Zip, but the suffering may be greater than the suffering in Arcadia Florida. Its all pretty bad isn't it?
Then think about why anyone would count out the chance of a hurricane threatening multiple times a yr a thin flat peninsula (Florida) that butts into tropical waters during late summer. Our knowledge is slim, about 100 yrs and really observations as well as tracking wasn't much until the last 40 yrs ago. No fancy radars, primitive hurricane hunters, no satellites, or techno-buoys in 1945.
Perhaps its been a rare event that Hurricanes have not threatened Florida more in the past 100 yrs?
As wouldn't be rare if few snowstorms hit Buffalo NY & when the lake effect kicked in people were freaked to get such dangerous amounts of snow in a short time.
I do agree it is extremely stressful, & burns one out. Its a bit much, but maybe Ivan will stay far south. To me it looks like a bouncing ball north along the South American coast moving towards Central America now. If thats the case then after a week very little will be heard once it makes landfall in one of those third world Central America places which will be a living hell I would guess, no FEMA, no home owners insurance, No FP&L, No local goverments restoring sanitary plumbing, no temp shelters, you get the idea. Much less available resources than what we are lucky to have here. Its not much to say that when a disater occurs and wipes out your life.
Its not any good and it will make you cry when you lose everything including things that can't be replaced but it can always be worse, thats all I am saying.
Take Care,
Mike
You really don't have to go that far.
Think about people in central America , Mexico, or even Haiti which get hit time and time again with powerful Hurricanes or weaker tropical storms and the same chaos descends on them with less, much less media coverage than a tropical storm with wind gust to 60 mph and minor flooding gets in Tampa.
Didn't Charley cross western Cuba? I have heard nothing about the effects of that storm there. Zip, but the suffering may be greater than the suffering in Arcadia Florida. Its all pretty bad isn't it?
Then think about why anyone would count out the chance of a hurricane threatening multiple times a yr a thin flat peninsula (Florida) that butts into tropical waters during late summer. Our knowledge is slim, about 100 yrs and really observations as well as tracking wasn't much until the last 40 yrs ago. No fancy radars, primitive hurricane hunters, no satellites, or techno-buoys in 1945.
Perhaps its been a rare event that Hurricanes have not threatened Florida more in the past 100 yrs?
As wouldn't be rare if few snowstorms hit Buffalo NY & when the lake effect kicked in people were freaked to get such dangerous amounts of snow in a short time.
I do agree it is extremely stressful, & burns one out. Its a bit much, but maybe Ivan will stay far south. To me it looks like a bouncing ball north along the South American coast moving towards Central America now. If thats the case then after a week very little will be heard once it makes landfall in one of those third world Central America places which will be a living hell I would guess, no FEMA, no home owners insurance, No FP&L, No local goverments restoring sanitary plumbing, no temp shelters, you get the idea. Much less available resources than what we are lucky to have here. Its not much to say that when a disater occurs and wipes out your life.
Its not any good and it will make you cry when you lose everything including things that can't be replaced but it can always be worse, thats all I am saying.
Take Care,
Mike
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golter
-
Stormcenter
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Something tells me this is the beginning of a left trend
in the forecast track? It looks like they keep Ivan on a NNW track toward the Florida (yes again Florida!) panhandle or AL. coastline. I think the area of concern MAY be shifting somewhat to the NE and N.Central GOM away for S.Florida. IMO
in the forecast track? It looks like they keep Ivan on a NNW track toward the Florida (yes again Florida!) panhandle or AL. coastline. I think the area of concern MAY be shifting somewhat to the NE and N.Central GOM away for S.Florida. IMO
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