Ivan Advisories

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soonertwister
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#3701 Postby soonertwister » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:14 pm

Because the lay of Jamaica's tallest mountains will be parallel to the direction the hurricane is moving, the disruption to the hurricane will be less than if the winds were always blowing against the slopes.

Also although Jamaica's highest mountain is about 7400 feet, the highest mountains of Jamaica are not large AND expansive, so the effect is much smaller than what you would see with a cane crossing the high mountains of hispaniola.

It's quite possible that those living several hundred meters above sea level and higher could see wind gusts at or above 170 KTS (<300 kph!)
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ladydkr
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#3702 Postby ladydkr » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:17 pm

Category 5 is 919 or lower. Over 155 mph, and 18 foot waves and is considered catastrophic in causing damage

Category 4 is 920/144, 131-155 mph, and 13-18 foot waves and is considered "extreme" in causing damage.

Any way you look at it anything 3+ is going to hurt, big time!
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Typhoon_Willie
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Nice shot of Ivan making its approach...

#3703 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:21 pm

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wxman57
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#3704 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:23 pm

I believe there's a simple explanation here.

That discussion had me puzzled for a bit as well. However, what I think that the NHC didn't say was that they were talking about the part of the track SOUTH of Cuba being shifted farther west to be in line with the models. These models take Ivan a bit farther west down the coast of Cuba then turn Ivan sharply NNE-NE toward the western to southwestern FL peninsula. It's the initial 48 hours of the forecast where the NHC track is east of guidance.

So the NHC isn't talking about shifting the last 3 days of the forecast track left, just the first 48 hours. See the model map below for reference:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Note how far WEST the models are compared to the NHC track initially, but then note how far EAST the models are past Cuba. The NHC could have been more clear and said that the track south of Cuba may need to be adjusted farther east to be more in line with model data. North of Cuba, the NHC track is already west of almost all guidance.
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Praxus
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#3705 Postby Praxus » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:23 pm

Thats an awesome and mean looking storm :eek:
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Storminole
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#3706 Postby Storminole » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:24 pm

Can someone inform me as to what the NHC means by "not prudent" to fully adjust the forecast track to reflect what the model guidance is telling them? Does that mean they have compromised the maximum degree of accuracy due to other considerations?

I can only surmise that they now believe that the storm will steer clear of peninsular Florida. But, so that those areas (i.e. Tampa Bay) don't seize upon an "all clear" which might later prove to be premature, they are keeping the track a bit east of their best calculation of where they truly now believe the storm will go.

That might be good for helping Tampa Bay to stay vigilant....maybe not so good for Apalachicola and the Panhandle generally, whose level of risk is now being understated. Any thoughts?
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stormchaserCP
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Weather Underground forecast for Kingston

#3707 Postby stormchaserCP » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:28 pm

Friday Night

Rain. Low: 82° F / 28° C Wind SSW 40 mph / 64 km/h

Saturday

Chance of a Thunderstorm. High: 84° F / 29° C Wind South 31 mph / 50 km/h


I hope there aren't many Jamaicans who frequent wunderground.com....
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Typhoon_Willie
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#3708 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:28 pm

Yep it sure is! I do pray that things will go all right with them!
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FloridaHawk82
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Very Sad

#3709 Postby FloridaHawk82 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:29 pm

Yes, say your prayers for all Jamaicans...

Hit "Animate Image" in the below link... quite frightening..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
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THead
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#3710 Postby THead » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:31 pm

I like the visible pic better though, man that looks scary. I hope everyone is ready for this beast down there.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html
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btsgmdad
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#3711 Postby btsgmdad » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:31 pm

That comma shape is always BAD news no matter where you see it.
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das8929

#3712 Postby das8929 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:32 pm

Imagine how powerful this would be without the shear to the north???
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Hou~TX~Mama
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#3713 Postby Hou~TX~Mama » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:33 pm

The eye looks almost like a triangle!? Is that normal?
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B-Bear
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#3714 Postby B-Bear » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:34 pm

What shear? I don't see any shear.
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das8929

#3715 Postby das8929 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:34 pm

Lol you're right that looks really cool! Never seen a hurricane with such a distinctive eye!
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Vortex
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18z GFS Direct Hit on South Florida

#3716 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:35 pm

The GFS continues to indicate a landfall over S Fl. We will have to watch this carefully to see if this trend continues as its been locked in on south florida the last few runs.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif
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MWatkins
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And the Beat Goes on...Ivan Strengthening Again

#3717 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:35 pm

I'van's satellite presentation is impressive tonight...after undergoing a bit of reorganization (oh no...dry air? upsloping? dynomat?) earlier today...most of the reorganizing occured during the westward wobble. This is normal for hurricanes to go through this process...and the hurricane is now looking as impressive as ever...at the worst possbile time.

The northern eyewall may skim the coast of Jamaica or it may go right on in. Only one wobble more and it could crash into the coast as a borderline Category 5 hurricane...and given the present structure it is possible that Ivan will become one again tonight.

So far I have no real changes on track...the models have shifted some to the west (UKMET...GFDL) over their previous runs...the GFS is more or less holding it's ground....and the NOGAPS suite has come right some.

All this really means is that we have better model agreement. But as usual...agreement does not equal accuracy. The upper low spinning in the central Atlantic is advancing on the ridge at twice the rate of the forward motion of thie hurricane. This become a key player IMHO over the next 24 hour period.

Still...though...last night I thought the hurricane would not pass on the west side of 85 west. Now...I do not believe it will pass on the other side of 83W. I was about to narrow that down further...but not ready yet. May do that tomorrow. Will wait to see if the flop-flipping on the minor details of the track continue tonight.

PS...I will be big time busy tonight and tomorrow afternoon. After that...it's all tropics all the time until Ivan passes through.

MW
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btsgmdad
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#3718 Postby btsgmdad » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:37 pm

Always great to get your insight Mike! What do you think of the Flight Winds not reflecting the pressure drop. There has been a rather heated discussion of this on another post.
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Pebbles
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CAT 5 again later tonight?

#3719 Postby Pebbles » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:37 pm

NHC said on Jamaica radio they are upping the winds on the 8pm 150mph.
Last edited by Pebbles on Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matthew5

#3720 Postby Matthew5 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:38 pm

Its not a cat5 intill its 156 mph!
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