Alex Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

WXman could you do me a favor and overlay the LLC position over an IR/SAT shot please?

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 020025 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM ALEX (ONE)
B. 01/2331Z (50)
C. 30.9N/2
D. 79.5E/1
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HR -01/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PRTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC 44NM INTO CNVCTN YIELDS DT
OF 3.5. FT BASED ON PT. MET AGREES. COR SENT FOR AODT. COR SENT AT
0120Z

AODT: T2.5 (IRREG CDO)

PERSINGER

[wxman57]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

wxman- yes its still on the northern side, however on IR it does look like the convection is coming over the LLC

agreed - shear does seem to be dropping off. Could be a real TS in the morning, with TS winds actually around the center.

[Stormchaser16]

Can you do me a favor and overlay the LLC position over an IR shot?

You gotta admit, much improvement throughout the day though, no more LLC's shooting out out teh convection, one main one looks to have taken over

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmmm..... Muy interesting......

[The Dark Knight]

Definately interesting...

[soonertwister]

yeah, and it was dark.

Everyone in the field knows that the estimates are just that and are subject to large error

but 40kT is still quite possible

The 50 KT surface wind observation was made at 2331Z, which was about 7:30 local time. It WAS dark in the next two vortex messages, which is why they didn't include a surface wind in the vortex message report.

[HouTXmetro]

Let me start by saying I'm no weather expert. With that said, can a meteorologist explain why 90L rarely showed the slightest signs of organizing? Being that 90L had a low level circulation, ideal conditions, and plenty of warm gulf waters to work with, I thought it was a sure thing. What do you think was the biggest contributing factor to it's demise? Last but not least, didn't 90L have more favorable conditions then Alex when they both got going? An educated analysis would be greatly appreciated.

[SacrydDreamz]

Well that discussion IS pretty good, however i have not seen anymore LLC's pop out of the convection, one main one now sits underneath the northern edge of the convection......

Also derecho- I think its a little more then guessing, however i can see why they would not upgrade based upon it, however it would probably have been a good idea to have split the difference

Trying to save face is unbecoming


I completely agree with the assessment from the NHC. Sooner, did you know they did this for a living too? hehe. Don't worry guys, Alex will likely be stronger come 2am, if not then surely by 5am. As northeasterly sheer weakens more then I would expect the mid and low level centers to colocate, giving Alex the opportunity to strengthen. UNTIL that happens don't expect much change in intensity. The satelitte image is much better looking because the the northeasterlt sheer has already abated to a degree. We could be looking at a minimal hurricane come Tuesday morning, but the longer it sits stationary the more likely it will go to sea while skirting the Carolina coast. Southwesterly sheer should end any strenghtening in 36-48 hours.

[SacrydDreamz]

The 11 P.M. discussion also states this

Some significant strengthening could occur Monday and Monday
night as alex begins to move northeastward and passes over the
gulfstream under decreasing vertical shear

The next 24 hours should be interesting:):)

They are conservative with their forecast though... 50kt at 36hrs.

[SacrydDreamz]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

wxman- yes its still on the northern side, however on IR it does look like the convection is coming over the LLC

agreed - shear does seem to be dropping off. Could be a real TS in the morning, with TS winds actually around the center.

Yeah, it would be nice to have TS force winds in all four quadrants instead of two, lol.

[MGC]

Just checked out the long range radar loop out of Charlston SC. Except for a blob of convection displaced to the south of the circulation center, Alex is a very dry storm. Almost no convection near the LLCC. Alex appears to be drifting slowly westard. WV loop reveals an UL ridge starting to build over Alex. Being so close to land I doubt significant convection will develope near the LLCC. As such, I expect Alex to remain a miminal TS in the short term. Once Alex clears the coast and moves over the Gulf Stream will convection have the oppertunity to fire near the LLCC...............MGC

[Stormsfury]

Just checked out the long range radar loop out of Charlston SC. Except for a blob of convection displaced to the south of the circulation center, Alex is a very dry storm. Almost no convection near the LLCC. Alex appears to be drifting slowly westard. WV loop reveals an UL ridge starting to build over Alex. Being so close to land I doubt significant convection will develope near the LLCC. As such, I expect Alex to remain a miminal TS in the short term. Once Alex clears the coast and moves over the Gulf Stream will convection have the oppertunity to fire near the LLCC...............MGC

Around the parent LLCC (if there is one right now), it's fairly devoid of convection, with that huge blowup south of it ... the MLC is fairly well organized now ...

The slow westward drift, I do agree with, and simply may be another vorticy winding around another LLCC (or possibly the more dominant of the ones out there)

Pretty much agreed on the needing the convection and the LLCC and MLC to orientate themselves a little more vertically, but the SST's aren't a problem, even right along the South Carolina coast ... Charleston Harbor SST's are sitting at 86º right now ...

Two things to note, while the LLCC is not really taking hold, the environment is weakly forced (steering wise) ... the mid-level flow is also thusly fairly weak, but IF Alex was more vertically stacked system ATT, the trajectory would have taken it NNW to N right now ... albeit still very slowly ...

A very iffy environment steering wise ... a gradually improving environment for storm structure reconfiguration ...

SF

[The Dark Knight]

Sounds good.....

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Gathering strength it seems.

[The Dark Knight]

Good, good, good......

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[The Dark Knight]

Wow!!!!!....... Nice reds..LOL Those reds NW of Cuba should be closely monitered......

[lilbump3000]

Alex continues to look better and better as each hour pass and how he looks now i wont be surprise if winds are 60MPH really soon. I mean look at the system its really got its act together in the past few hours.

[ColdFront77]

Other systems that approach the southeast coast from the east, stall like this one and with a (in this case the) weakening southern portion of the front... it can't go out to sea too easily.