Gaston Advisories

[Matthew5]

If so Frances is a cat4!

[simplykristi]

If I were living along the Sc/NC coastline, I would treat it like the worst case scenario.... possible hurricane.

[seahawkjd]

Can someone link a t-number explanation again or explain them?

[seahawkjd]

t numbers 3.5 now for Gaston

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281737
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...GASTON DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD...RECON APPROACHING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH GASTON WITHIN
THE HOUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Guest]

Wow, I expected that from Frances, but Gaston now to is getting stronger. Maybe he will become a minimal hurricane. Frances, I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach strong cat 4/ cat 5 strength soon. Note its beginning to have the stadium look, and its becoming more donut like (Just like Isabel).

[Guest]

Interesting. I wouldn't think it unlikely for Gaston to attain hurricane, but probably not stronger than 75/80 mph.

[cycloneye]

Can someone link a t-number explanation again or explain them?

The T number system is doing sattellite estimates of the wind profile of a system.At the chart I posted above you can see every T number from low to high numbers and the winds that every of them represent.

[James]

I've heard that so called 'donut' hurricanes can maintain great strength for a longer amount of time. Is that true?

[wx247]

Holy cow. I didn't expect Gaston to be that strong.

[Pebbles]

Hum..no hurricane watch? Was expecting one with the T numbers. Maybe after recon if they find what the T numbers hint at?

[seahawkjd]

Oh

I am so used to seeing recon reports on this site that I just automatically thought that was one and didn't see it was a chart lol.

[Benlanka]

Frances (more T-numbers expected soon):
08-28-2004 1715z KGWC T5.5/T5.5

TS Gaston:

08-28-2004 1715z KGWC T3.5/T3.5
08-28-2004 1745z SAB T3.5/T3.5
08-28-2004 1745z TAFB T3/T3

Source: Current hurricane intensities page.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM GASTON (AL072004) ON 20040828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040828 1800 040829 0600 040829 1800 040830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.3N 78.7W 31.8N 79.6W 32.8N 80.2W 34.2N 80.4W
BAMM 31.3N 78.7W 31.8N 79.5W 32.9N 80.1W 34.2N 80.2W
A98E 31.3N 78.7W 31.4N 79.1W 31.6N 79.0W 33.5N 78.8W
LBAR 31.3N 78.7W 31.6N 79.4W 32.6N 79.9W 33.8N 80.2W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 66KTS 74KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 66KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040830 1800 040831 1800 040901 1800 040902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.0N 79.9W 40.0N 73.1W 44.4N 56.8W 47.7N 31.0W
BAMM 35.7N 79.7W 38.0N 76.2W 39.4N 68.9W 39.6N 58.8W
A98E 34.9N 77.8W 37.1N 75.0W 38.7N 67.9W 42.6N 53.4W
LBAR 35.2N 79.8W 38.7N 76.2W 43.9N 66.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 81KTS 85KTS 74KTS 63KTS
DSHP 34KTS 32KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.3N LONCUR = 78.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 31.3N LONM12 = 78.2W DIRM12 = 254DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 31.6N LONM24 = 78.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 25NM

50 mph at 5 PM advisory.

[Rieyeuxs]

I was surprised at not upgrading to a hurricane watch/warning as well. I agree that Gaston is too close to land to build up any great wind speeds, but the flooding seems to be the bigger threat. We've had monsoon type rains here on the coast almost every afternoon and the lakes are getting full. In fact the local news just ran a segment on the flooding problems of downtown Charleston a couple of days ago.

If this happens, and God forbid (and it does look unlikely) that Frances heads this way, well... I really don't want to think about it.

[Matthew5]

Gaston is 994 millibars if I'm reading that right

[Guest]

wow ships takes it to 85kts eventually... we may have a little situation developing here.

[Benlanka]

55kts winds and 994hPa, yes.

[Pebbles]

Which leads me to wonder even more why they didn't at least put hurricane watches up. Watches just mean it's possible..... and sure looks possible now.

[frankthetank]

What is the actual size of Frances (miles across) and how does this compare to AVG (whatever that is) hurricanes...i'm just wondering if it hits homestead, fl (FOR EXAMPLE) does it effect miami-key west...?????

Do hurricanes get bigger as they age/smaller??

thanks....