Ivan Advisories

[Jetman]

06z sat analysis: 923mb 135 kt
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

dvorak is 6.0/6.5

at least a borderline cat 4/5

Jetman

[Jetman]

will be interesting to see what happens here, land interaction with jamaica shouldn't weaken this...ULL between Jamaica/Caymans...weak shear...warm waters

[senorpepr]

135kt is still cat 4.

[mobilebay]

on the latest ETA ( I know, its the ETA) However, it is a huge southwest jump through 30 hours from the 00Z run.

[PurdueWx80]

Not really...it has kept the storm moving WNW for several runs...sometimes w/ jogs to the WNW and some to the WSW...it isn't really all that different from 00Z.

[mobilebay]

Not really...it has kept the storm moving WNW for several runs...sometimes w/ jogs to the WNW and some to the WSW...it isn't really all that different from 00Z.

It's about 250 miles southwest of the 00Z positoin. You have to look at 48H on the 00Z run, to correlate with 42 hours on the 0600 run. Subtract the hours.

[Wnghs2007]

Actually PurdueWx80 mobile bay is very correct it is much farther take for instance this below.

The 00Z 48 hr ETA Postition.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

Then

The 06Z 42 hr ETA Position.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif

Look at the diffrence the 00Z had it near cuba. While the 06z has it much farther to the SW. As you can see.


**Mod editted to remove graphics but leave link

[mobilebay]

Actually PurdueWx80 mobile bay is very correct it is much farther take for instance this below.

The 00Z 48 hr ETA Postition.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif

Then

The 06Z 42 hr ETA Position.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif

Look at the diffrence the 00Z had it near cuba. While the 06z has it much farther to the SW. As you can see.

Thanks. I would have posted the link, but everytime I do it never works.

[Hurrilurker]

Sorry, I had to leave for a few hours and lost track of everything. Did Ivan ever officially get back to Cat-5 status recently? It sure looked like it was getting close earlier and I saw something about a 920mb pressure report.

[PurdueWx80]

I know I know. I was talking about the general motion. I was using my memory from the past few runs instead of looking at the actual maps. You win! Anyway, the storm is still south of where the model actually starts (20N). I'm not sure what to make of this.

Also of note, in 60 hours this model has the storm moving slowly through the Yucatan channel w/ LESS shear than it has now, a ridge on top of the low-level center, and, consequently, a VERY well developed outflow pattern at 200 & 250 mb. Those are the perfect ingredients for rapid strengthening given the warm waters in that location.

[mobilebay]

You really have to take the ETA with a grain of salt. I'm just wondering will it effect the other models this much? Guess we will find out when the GFS runs.

[senorpepr]

920mb... yes, but recon now has 924mb.

Cat 5... no, it never regained that category.

[Hurricane Cheese]

It's 1 mph below Cat 5 right now...


Currently 155 mph, 924 mb pressure via recon...

[PurdueWx80]

I know...I can't wait!

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html (5 DAY FORECAST MAP)

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... arine.html (MARINE ADVISORY)

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html (DISCUSSION)

[mobilebay]

I've never ripped the NHC but my GOD! WNW :roll: Then in the discussion "short term west wobble"> Give me a break. If this thing has been moving WNW I'm Donald Trump. Call a spade a spade. It has been moving almost due west for about 10 hours now. MAYBE just a touch north of that. I'm an idiot and I can see this is no wobble. Unless of course you call 150 miles a wobble.

[senorpepr]

923mb, 150mph according to the latest advisory

[ericinmia]

The nhc had predicted this...
The ULL in the atlantic has greatly effected the bermuda high, especially its former western expanse.
The high to Ivan's north is diminishing, and the trough is digging.

Ivan had been moving westerly for quiet some time with very little north componant at all. I believe that with the current synoptic setup building... Ivan should begin to move much more northerly late this morning and afternoon. Since he is moving just north of west now, i am thinking a NW movement would be occuring later on tonight (315-320 degrees)


-Eric

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

Could you please post again about this with the same map. I did not read the first 7 topics you started about the exact same thing.

[Stormwinds]

DOUBTFUL ON HIM BEING FIRED!
His NORMAL Shift Was Up! Sharon Resultan Took The 2am Shift , I Believe She Mentioned The New 2am Update, But The Graphics Were NOT Up Yet!
I Recorded All This, So I'll See If Sharon Does Mention New Update, And Re-Go Over The Dave Schwartz Paper Statement!
If It Was Not A Mistake, He Might Have Been Refering To The Upper Levels?
Also, Warren Madden Is Working For 2 Weeks, On Hurricane Patrol, And Has Been Going Up In The Aircrafts For Readings...As Part Of His Reserve Duty.
*YES I WATCH TWC ALL THE TIME* LOL
~Stormwinds~