Ivan Advisories

[Sanibel]

I don't see a stall. It's moving right along. Because the eye is covered it isn't showing true motion...

[Derek Ortt]

the eye wall went across the southern portions of the island. Jamaica was not spared at all. They still got the strongest winds and a tidal surge that has been reported to have been as high as a 2 or 3 story building

[huricanwatcher]

OMY!!

[vbhoutex]

Dean, could you please explain your reasoning on this landfall? I am starting to come into agreement with this scenario after looking at the WV this am and talking with some others. Just wondering what is giving you the confidence to call this this far out. Not agruing at all, just curious.

[Stormcenter]

Ivan is already facing light steering currents. i think the models have underestimated the ULL. MAYBE NOT....WE'LL SEE.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Hmmmmmm I don't think so.

[Brent]

I woke up this morning to see TWC local forecast for Pensacola says rain and wind on Wednesday. Must be some major west shifts going on!

Showers here Tuesday on the AL/GA border.

Great... we don't need any rain, much less wind.

I'm hoping this either goes to our east a good ways and we just get some clouds, or it goes way west. East is the best bet right now unless the models keep shifting.

[bwstg]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 11, 2004 9:55 a.m.


Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Ivan was centered at 17.7 north and 78.4 west, or 60 miles south of Montego Bay, Jamaica. Ivan is moving west-northwestward at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 150 mph. The central pressure in Ivan is 923 millibars or 27.26 inches. Hurricane-strength winds extend up to 45 miles from the center of Ivan; tropical-storm force winds are up to 175 miles from the center.

Ivan is a very strong Category 4 storm and as the hurricane continues to go through internal changes that will cause it to go through cycles of strengthening and weakening. This process is called eye-wall replacement and is common with all very strong hurricanes. During this process, the hurricane's eye contracts, causing a second eye wall to form around the smaller eye wall nearer the center. Once the second and larger eye wall forms, the inner eye wall falls apart and pressures within the hurricane rise. The larger second eye wall then slowly contracts and, once again, the pressure falls. Each time the pressure rises, the wind field around the hurricane decreases somewhat. Each time the pressure falls, the wind field around the hurricane tightens and usually increases. This process can take anywhere from 12 to 24 hours.

Ivan continues to look like a textbook hurricane this morning with a well defined eyewall and a fairly circular structure this morning. Ivan took a westward jog last night and kept the center of Ivan just off of the southern coast of Jamaica. This may have spared parts of the island from the full force of the hurricane but hurricane force winds certainly occurred over a large part of the island; especially on the southern coast and in the higher elevations. The storm is now heading toward the Grand Cayman Islands later tonight. Unlike Jamaica which has fairly substantial mountains; the Caymans are fairly flat and won't weaken the storm very much. Also with the flat nature of the Islands storm surge will be a bigger problem with 5 to 8 and possibly as high as 10 foot surge possible. Also rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible. The storm will then head toward the Isle of Youth and the western part of Cuba later tomorrow into tomorrow night.

The track of the storm then becomes a little more uncertain as the storm emerges off of Cuba. With the progression of the trough digging in from the west appearing to have stalled a bit and the westward movement of the storm over the past several hours the window of movement as been shifted a little further to the west with the center of the track now heading toward Apalachee Bay and the eastern Panhandle of Florida. However, given the weak nature of the steering winds there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to the exact track of the storm and all interests throughout the eastern Gulf Coast and the entire length of Florida should continue to closely monitor the progress of Ivan through Accuweather.com.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, there is a tropical wave along 44 west, south of 17 north; fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms, are associated with this wave. A tropical wave is along 59 west, south of 20 north. This will bring some showers and thundershowers to the windward islands over the next day but development is not expected at this time. An old frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico will be monitored for possible development.

[PerfectStorm]

looks like we will see a turn to the NW or N soon! just watching the morphology of Ivan seems to be giving hints during this ERC that he might be getting ready! SW FL onward to the North. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see this storm hug the coast of W FL.

THOUGHTS???

[chris_fit]

more north than west in 24 hours.

[LilNoles2004]

Derek, you guys have been pretty consistent with your track... FINALLY, everyone else is catching up to you... Your track still is unwelcome, though. Can't y'all draw that line a couple hundred miles to the west instead of right near my house (actually very slightly west of my house = bad side)... lol...

Darn 'Canes (Ivan and UM).

[inotherwords]

Thanks, but the mods have asked us not to post advisories or pictures, just links to them in order to keep the forum from crashing so often.

Not picking on you and don't shoot the messenger, I always appreciate good info, but it's just what they have asked us to do, for a good reason.

[Zadok]

We are out of the cone!

[Innotech]

slight weakening due to eyewall replacement. Watch this storm carefully because Cat 5 is again very possible.

[bwstg]

Thanks, but the mods have asked us not to post advisories or pictures, just links to them in order to keep the forum from crashing so often.

Not picking on you and don't shoot the messenger, I always appreciate good info, but it's just what they have asked us to do, for a good reason.

I thought they might have relaxed that because I still see graphs and disucssion being posted.

[Brent]

slight weakening due to eyewall replacement. Watch this storm carefully because Cat 5 is again very possible.

Actually they say it's because of interaction with Jamaica. It's all estimated. Next recon is 2pm EDT.

[Brent]

Thanks, but the mods have asked us not to post advisories or pictures, just links to them in order to keep the forum from crashing so often.

Not picking on you and don't shoot the messenger, I always appreciate good info, but it's just what they have asked us to do, for a good reason.

I thought they might have relaxed that because I still see graphs and disucssion being posted.

Your supposed to just post links like

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

and

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[inotherwords]

bwstg, read this:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43229

[Derek Ortt]

heard about the OT victory by UM last night. Didnt see a down though (I am an ND fan who is irritated about them losing to BYU!, time they fire Willingham, but thats for the sports section, lol)

wish I could make some changes in the track. Myabe the ridge will be stronger than we expect and this will go farther west, or farther east of the ridge weakens.

also, as a reminder to everyone, storm updates are available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004.html

[SwampDawg]

just don't see that happening real soon. It will in time however