Earl Advisories

[OtherHD]

kevin, I believe Recon takes off at 8pm. It should be headed down there now.

[snowflake]

Earlier I thought Earl was going to Texas. Now I think it may be going to Mexico.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2031.shtml?

[CoyoteUglyGurl]

Is earl coming into the gulf and where is he going? HOw strong would earl be?

[Anonymous]

Why does Earl look so big? Does he want to be a giant? I don't see Earl dissipating.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[Guest]

close up pic???????? .ummmm

[Brent]

Too early to tell. It's still 4 days away(at least)

[Thunder44]

This morning's.

[snowflake]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

[MWatkins]

I was just getting ready to jump in when I saw your rather comprehensive post, SF...it sure does look like Earl has slowed considerably this evening. Even still it may have outrun the western side of the circulation all together...and if no new bursting occurs in the next 4-5 hours then we have our answer.

There still looks like there is a good twist there but it is hard to discern whether that is a MLC or a surface low...if there is a surface low left it may have jumped a little to the north and could be detached from the MLC to the south of where the relatively deepest convection is.

The outflow and main convective band to the north looks more ragged than it had earlier today...like perhaps the system is unwinding a bit.

Charley went through the same thing but it happened during the diurnal minimum...not the convective max that is already starting...although sometimes systems don't always follow that rule. Also...when charley pulled this the band to the north was still tighter...and we had visible imagery to see clouds moving into the circ from the south. Without visible...hard to say for sure.

Anyone wanting to encounter Earl has a long nervous night ahead. Maybe the GFS is onto something.

MW

[Guest]

I believe earl will come into to the gulf and it will be a CAT 4. I know it is 4 or more day away, but they way these canes have been going all professional opinions are out. Looks like this year is different, unless all the years have been this way. Any opinions on this anyone? I understand the cone theory, but why not put a cone in all of GOM?

[OtherHD]

Maybe it IS a wave..

996
URNT11 KNHC 160034
97779 00344 20166 6450/ 56300 09032 5560/ /4591
RMK AF985 0205A EARL OB 05. LAST REPORT

[MWatkins]

The refiring convection is right next to another outflow boundary. Probably will be yanked away from the true center.

C H A R L E Y......D I D.....T H E.....S A M E......T H I N G!!!!!!

Yes he did...however...the surface pressure right around the time this happened with Charles was 999MB. Last recon reported 1011MB...a 12MB difference. Charles had the pressure to pull this off...it doesnt take nearly as much to weaken an 1011MB low.

MW

[kevin]

Thanks for the information MW. I'm trying to learn this science of meteorology, and you all are very valuable to me.

[Brent]

If there's no vortex, there's no LLC.

[mf_dolphin]

The trend lately has been for Earl to stay pretty far south. there doesn't seem to be any reason to doubt the current official forecast. IMO

[tdess02]

Earl is far from Dead!
As long as he has that spin action, he's in good shape. The convection will probably fire up again, it is already showing signs of that. Also, it appears to me that he is now moving on a more wnw direction which will alter the next advisory's projected path, probably a little further north from the previous. If the convection starts firing again around the center, along with the more northerly track, then we will need to watch him more closely here in the U.S.!

[alicia-w]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
Can you have a Vortex Data Message without a vortex? I'm not sure, but I will go out on a limb and say no.

[MWatkins]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
Can you have a Vortex Data Message without a vortex? I'm not sure, but I will go out on a limb and say no.

Usually...you cant...but that one is 12 hours old.

TPC initialized the models at 40 knots...but with a couple of key changes:

The initial motion has slowed to 17 knots...a big slowdown.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0408160056

This fact...along with initializing the center at 12.4N alone is causing the models to hook to the right late in the period.

Recon may have gone back due to mechanical problems...even if it were an open wave they would spend time confirming that...those guys out there are the last ones who want to go home early...I can assure you.

MW

[alicia-w]

We certainly dont need another Opal here. The rate of new construction along the beaches has been nothing short of phenomenal and the infrastructure to evac all of those folks (well as residents on the bay side) hasnt changed at all. There are still only two roads outta here. As soon as we have any idea that this thing is two days out, so are we.

[Derecho]

They never, ever, ever, ever leave a recon early because something is too crappy.

It was assuredly some sort of mechanical failure.