Ivan Advisories

dennis1x1 · #4921 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:55 pm

well...but its not wobbling back NW is the only difference.

#4922 Postby **USAwx1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:55 pm

here is a look at the SYNOPTIC set-up over the Northern hemisphere as Gilbert made landfall in Mexico.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/040911225258.gif

And gilberts track

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.dat

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

Notice how it followed along the periphery of the Sub-tropical ridge.

marc21688 · #4923 Postby **marc21688** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:55 pm

canegrl04 · #4924 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:55 pm

It looks like he is peeking to see if everything is okay to enter the Gulf

Sure seem that way :eek:

#4925 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:55 pm

It has not jogged NW. It has slowed...but there is no NW movement. That would be 315.

Cape Verde · #4926 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:56 pm

It does look like 5 out of the last 6 frames show western movement. It's going to have to move almost due northwest to stay on the forecast track at Grand Cayman island.

#4927 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:56 pm

It does! He seems even closer to Florida in this image. Scary.

#4928 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:56 pm

If you zoom in so that the eye takes up almost the entire window... the last two frames show the wetard movement stopping... and the last frame shows the eye recentering a little tiny midgit smidge to the north. That is mabye what was being seen. It appears to be slowing even more now!
-Eric

mobilebay · #4929 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:56 pm

Recon fixes over the last 3 or 4 hours proves Due west. Recon does not lie.

#4930 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:57 pm

That certainly emphasis the threat to the GOM.

#4931 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:57 pm

das8929 wrote:Now its wobbling to the NW, just like it was wobbling W. Hence, WNW!!

I'm sorry I know it's not what you want hear but he is not moving northward maybe wnw but not northward.

ohiostorm · #4932 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:58 pm

That or Im stupid!

#4933 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:58 pm

Good discussion.
You made some interesting points.
I need some meteorological guidance.
I've got too much of my attention focused on the tropics and forgot about that front overthe Appalachians.
The BIG question in my mind is..
What is that Anti-Cyclonic "bubble" over central FL gonna do?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

205 PM EDT SAT 11 SEP 2004...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 31N82W 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N82W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 79W-86W.
<snip>
CARIBBEAN...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE IVAN WHICH IS JUST W OF JAMAICA. ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS AFFECT W HAITI...SE
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPERLEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER IVAN WITH AN E/W RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N88W 18N79W 15N60W.

LowMug · #4934 Postby **LowMug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:58 pm

ohiostorm wrote:I just reloaded the IR floater and the last 2 frames show Ivan possibly starting his turn more NW. Looks like he was having a little W wobble. Let's see if this is an actual turn or a wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Maybe you smoking some of that stuff that got of of Jamaica before Ivan came... :lol:

Sean in New Orleans · #4935 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:58 pm

It's slowing down, wobbling west, and entering an area where steering currents are rather weak. Hopefully, the trough from the Midwest will come down far enough to influence this system in some way.

canegrl04 · #4936 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:59 pm

Someon posted how similar Camille and Ivans tracks are. Ivan at 20N,82W Camille was at 19.4N,82W

Thunder44 · #4937 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:59 pm

People seem to be posting on a every little move iit takes based on one or two sat images, and declaring that it will or will not hit there or there. But nobody seems to suggest that it could be just a wobble anymore.

Website · #4938 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:59 pm

Ivan is not a girlie man! :lol:

ohiostorm · #4939 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:02 pm

I clearly stated wobble in my statement.

gkrangers · #4940 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:02 pm

Thunder44 wrote:People seem to be posting on a every little move iit takes based on one or two sat images, and declaring that it will or will not hit there or there. But nobody seems to suggest that it could be just a wobble anymore.

An hour from now, after a NW jog, there will be a thread entitled "Ivan to hit Grand Cayman directly, Cuba next".

Ivan Advisories

Re: Ivan starting more Northerly turn

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