Earl Advisories

[Huckster]

A decrease in forward motion definitely enhances the chances of Earl becoming something more significant. There are SW winds in the western Caribbean which will result in significant relative shear if Earl does not slow down even more though. I am going to take a guess and say that Earl does not do a whole lot of re-organizing until it gets past 75-80 degrees longitude, that is, if it re-organizes at all. The structure right now, based on IR satellite imagery seems to indicate a structure more compatible with a strong tropical wave than tropical storm.

[Anonymous]

Yes, but is he Mexico bound???

[Cyclone Runner]

Found a report for Sunday morning on the Stormcarib Site for Tobago as Earl passed.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/trinidad.shtml

As at 8.30am local, Tobago is experiencing heavy rainfall for the past 2 hours. Areas from Castara to Charlotteville have no electricity. 90% of Tobago was without e4lectricity. Sky condition is very overcast but the Wind is calm. Tropical Storm warning remains in effect.

The National Emergency Management Agency is maintaining a Net on 147.800 Mhz -600. Reports are coming in from from all over Trinidad.

The weather at my location overcast, wind calm, Rel. humidity is 86% and Barometric pressure is 1015.6mb.


I would not count Earl out yet, looks much more envigorated this morning.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004


AS FOR FATE OF EARL...NHC STILL CALLING FOR A LOCATION OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ON SAT W/ WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONTROLLING
MOVEMENT. CAN'T HELP BUT NOTICE THAT BY SUN H25 TROF STARTS DIGGING
DOWN INTO TX AS WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS OVER ERN GULF. NHC ALREADY
BEGINNING TO TURN FCST TRACK TO THE RIGHT. EVEN IF TROF DOESN'T DIG
FAR ENOUGH S TO PICK THE SYSTEM UP WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND WARM SST IN
THE SWRN GULF COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD INTENSIFICATION BEFORE SOMETHING
FORCES IT IN ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER. AS MENTIONED MANY TIMES
PREVIOUSLY...STAY TUNED.

[southerngale]

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 11


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 16, 2004



the initial position is highly uncertain and is based...to a large
degree...on extrapolation and assuming that the center is somewhere
close to the easternmost burst of deep convection. This position is
at least 30 nmi ahead of the conventional satellite position
estimates. The Dvorak intensity estimates have dropped to 30 kt.
However...given the recent development of cold topped convection
near the alleged center...the intensity will be held at 40 kt until
recon gets out there later this morning to investigate the cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/18. Some earlier
SSMI and AMSU data suggest that Earl has slowed some...but I am
reluctant to bring down the forward speed too much at this time.
The NHC model guidance is more tightly clustered now on a general
track across the Yucatan Peninsula in 84-96 hours. However...the
GFDL has made a major shift to the right on this forecast cycle. It
is now the rightmost of all the model guidance...except for the GFS
10-member ensemble model. The GFS ensemble model brings Earl to
near the Yucatan Channel in 120 hours. The subtropical ridge to the
north is expected to remain intact through at least 72 hours...
after which all of the models agree on bringing a shortwave into
the Southern Plains and northern Mexico...which helps to erode the
ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. Only the UKMET and Canadian
models maintain a strong ridge across the Gulf. The rest of the
models have only 5-10 kt of wind at 500 mb in the western Gulf in
4-5 days...which could allow for Earl to slow and move more
poleward. The official track is to the right of the previous track
and is close to the speed of the NHC model consensus.

All of the global and regional models agree on keeping the
upper-level winds under 15 kt and generally out of the east across
the entire Caribbean Sea ahead of Earl. Therefore...at least steady
intensification is called for. The intensity forecast is close to
the SHIPS model...and accounts for land interaction with the
Yucatan Peninsula by 96 hours...but is not nearly as strong as the
GFDL model which brings Earl up to 91 kt in about 72 hours.

Forecaster Stewart




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 11


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 16, 2004


...Earl continues moving westward over the southern Caribbean Sea...
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 13.2 north...longitude 67.2 west or
about 410 miles... 655 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo
in the Dominican Republic.

Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph
...33 km/hr...and this motion is expected to

maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the storm later this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...13.2 N... 67.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 21 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Stewart

[Anonymous]

That doesn't sound good for us at all Southerngale!

[tailgater]

When the recon gets back out there I think they won't find a center although the convention is increasing and some low level inflow from the south. The outflow is limited to the north, and some shear from SW. If there is a center it would probably be around 13.9N-68.1W If you disagree why?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 161024
97779 10244 20168 66000 56300 11031 58604 /4591
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 01

They haved started the mission.The question is what will they find beneath the convection.

First position at ob#1 is 16.8n-66.0w.

[snowflake]

Those models are mostly old now, some of the newer runs shift back to the right a little.

I saw that on the local weather this morning. I am hoping Earl does not get to strong.

[Thunder44]

URNT11 KNHC 161117
97779 11174 20147 66600 15400 11042 18158 /2547 41125
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 05

14.7N 66.6N

Looks like they are in there now. So they've only found a ESE at 42kts at flight level

[Wallcloud]

Flight ended short becuase Venezuela denied access to thier air space

[Frank P]

Hard to tell right now, regardless, if its just a wave its a strong one right now... there is some significant convection up around 41.9n, which looks to have some rotation in it based on just a few of the early morning vis sat loops... could be a midlevel rotation, not sure, but if a LLC develops that far north things could get interesting down the road for the GOM, and I think you hear a lot less about the Mexico scenario... just premature speculation on my part while taking a quick look at the sat pixs, which sometimes do not tell the whole story... recon will let us know what's the deal with Earl

[PTPatrick]

It would appear that even though he is looking ragged, he is hanging tough. I am wondering if perhaps the center may try to reform farther north as all of the convection is north. I am wondering now if this is going to be one of those things where the models do a big 360...first it gulf via tip of cuba, then the yucatan, then it was just mexico...could the right shifts NHC speaks of be the beginning of a shift back to the yucatan channel and ultimately towards the northern GC? I sure hope not.

Watching Earl patiently from Pascagoula

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It even appears there is or was an eye trying to form under the western ball of convection.

[Frank P]

boy, that's an interesting sat loop... if that is the center it sure is a lot farther SOUTH than I would have thought it would be...I don't think its an eye per se, but it sure looks like it has a rotation to it... however, sometimes its really difficult to get an LLC off IR in a developing storm...

[Thunder44]

It takes across the Yucatan than into the BOC until it makes final Landfall between Tampico and Veracruz in Mexico after 120 hours.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04081611

Of course it's doesn't mean it will actually happen.

[HouTXmetro]

Unless the center reforms more to the North, Earl will probably strike Mexico. The latest loops show a w-wsw movement with the system as a whole.

[cycloneye]

Hmm it has been a half an hour after the last report of ob #5.Three things may haved happened for this space without any more obs.First no LLC found so it's an open wave,Second Mechanical problems and third Venezuela goverment not granting permission to use their airspace.

[wx247]

Aooarently I am not seeing what you are seeing.

[Stratosphere747]

Same here wx247....

I am also intrigued by what the NHC sees long range...Although most of the models seem to take Earl somewhere in the lower Yuctan...They mentioned quite a bit of the GFDL and the GFS which takes Earl near the Y channel...