Ivan Advisories

Possum Trot · #5081 Postby **Possum Trot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:56 pm

Reports on stormcarib.com of wind gusts of 60 to 70mph at south end of Cayman Brac. 15-20 foot seas have stewn sea weed and coral on the South Coast Road which is impassable due to flooding in three places. Little Cayman experiencing hurricane force winds. Hurricane force winds expected to begin in Grand Cayman about 2AM. Unconfirmed report that all the docks at the south west end of Cayman Brac are gone. Power out in many places on the islands due to fallen trees. Some of the outages have bee restored for now.

#5082 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:56 pm

Wnghs2007 · #5083 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:57 pm

893 mb

Anonymous · #5084 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:57 pm

Looks pretty well organized so I think it has a chance of below 888mb :wink:

Jetman · #5085 Postby **Jetman** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:58 pm

Grand Cayman airport is reporting winds of 36 knots (45 mph), no gust report (estimated 55 knots, 68 mph)

#5086 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:58 pm

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

The BAMM,BAMD and LBAR take this thru the Channel.So all interests in the gulf coast from Louisiana to the west Florida coast should monitor the progress because nobody is out of the woods.

huricanwatcher · #5087 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:59 pm

keep trying......

calidoug · #5088 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:00 pm

Let's see what the globals say-- the ones started after Ivan's slow crawl today... The 0Zs should incorporate that.

#5089 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:01 pm

It's interesting that in the first periods they are further west, but later they end up the same as the previous run...or nearly so.

lilbump3000 · #5090 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:01 pm

Im very surprised how far west the GFDL run is tonight taking it into the mississippi gulf coast.

canegrl04 · #5091 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:01 pm

888-899 range .Ivan looks like a hurricane for the ages right now.And if he enters the YC with weakened shear,he will make it.

lilbump3000 · #5092 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:02 pm

Heres the link

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2004091112-thirteen13e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

#5093 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:02 pm

We're getting close to that 72 hour window of confidence for projected landfall, just east of Pensacola around noon on Wednesday.
Ivan may be bearing winds of 115knots!
I urge all gulf coast residents from Gulfport down to Fort Myers, Please be prepared!
I'm still going to keep my eyes open, here in Central Florida, too.

marc21688 · #5094 Postby **marc21688** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:03 pm

When do the other models come out?

Guest · #5095 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:03 pm

There are caves for them to hide but I have not heard them say nothing on the station. Rock on.

lilbump3000 · #5096 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:04 pm

Well disreguard that, i think thats the 12Z run i posted up.

Stormsfury · #5097 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:04 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:2 eyewalls that close together?? That is weird...can anyone explain why and what effects it could have on strengthening/weakening??

And how rapidly they appeared after the other concentric eyewall had completed ... the satellite representation of the eye on IR, VIS (before nightfall), and WV imagery is absolutely stunning ... the best it's looked so far in its entire life cycle ...

Based on observations only, and since this is basically the first time I've seen concentric eyewalls this close together myself ... the earlier ERC didn't seem to have any weakening processes, in fact, during the last ERC, Ivan reached CAT 5 status for a second time. We saw the pressures respond by falling off and the winds coming back up with the 161 KT NE quad at FL.

Here we have a CAT 5 TC feeding in the area of the highest TCHP in the ENTIRE ATL BASIN and basically we're watching Ivan literally go ape ...

SF

#5098 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:05 pm

tronbunny wrote:We're getting close to that 72 hour window of confidence for projected landfall, just east of Pensacola around noon on Wednesday.
Ivan may be bearing winds of 115knots!
I urge all gulf coast residents from Gulfport down to Fort Myers, Please be prepared!
I'm still going to keep my eyes open, here in Central Florida, too.

Well, I'm 20 miles West of Gulfport, so I'm safe, right? :lol:

huricanwatcher · #5099 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:05 pm

i got a bunch of fuzzzz before from the station, my heart sank.... but then it came back up...

ROCK ON CAYMANS!!!

Janie34 · #5100 Postby **Janie34** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:05 pm

I keep thinking that Ivan is now very close to Camille's lowest pressure of 905 mb.

Ivan Advisories

00:00 Models=Thru Yucatan Channel and then up to Panhandle

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