Ivan Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
vortex100
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 10:10 am
Location: Fayetteville, GA
Contact:

#5121 Postby vortex100 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:15 pm

News reports indicate that Kingston reported winds as high as 130 mph, despite its distance from the eyewall. Looking at Ivan now and the current trajectory, Grand Cayman should suffer a direct hit. Building codes on the island are fairly strict and it made it through Gilbert with only moderate damage. However, this monster could very well devastate the entire island. I would be surprised to see more than half the trees and homes survive if Ivan makes a direct hit.
0 likes   

User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1046
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#5122 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:15 pm

Great discussion, it's threads like this that make this board worth the time! Thanks . I have trying to describe what I saw happening. I have been learning here the "basics" of the synoptic patterns. Just so you don't think I'm blowing smoke

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44076

Keep it up :)
0 likes   

stormwatcher
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:39 am

#5123 Postby stormwatcher » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:16 pm

Looks like a boucing ball to the west.
0 likes   

User avatar
Houstonia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 829
Age: 60
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 9:45 am
Location: Sharpstown, Houston, Harris County, Southeast Texas.

I'll take y'alls word for it...

#5124 Postby Houstonia » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:17 pm

I can't listen... I had to turn it off. The music was too much crap (sorry if I offended any rap fans - I just happen to not be able to stand it).

So, please summerize here if you get a chance!
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#5125 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:19 pm

You could see shear cutting the tops of the highest convection here in the Gulf this evening...
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Evening Ivan Forecast... 155KT at Grand Cayman

#5126 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:19 pm

I am expecting this island to suffer the same fate as did Swan Island in 1998 from Mitch

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

graphics will soon be available
0 likes   

jude
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 109
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:53 am

#5127 Postby jude » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:20 pm

i've lost them- 9:15 in NJ
anybody else?

This is an utterly amazing thing, this broadcast over the last two days..
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#5128 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:21 pm

Theres about 10 kts of shear in the gulf and its actually decreasing in the Caribbean.
0 likes   

WindyWx
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:48 pm
Location: Florida

#5129 Postby WindyWx » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:21 pm

If Ivan were to follow the projected path and cross Cuba but with higher than forecast max winds, what does this mean for a stronger US hit at landfall? I'm guessing it could mean a stronger storm at landfall than currently projected? Yes? No?

Getting mighty nervous up here in the Panhandle :crazyeyes:
0 likes   

Matthew5

#5130 Postby Matthew5 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:21 pm

I think its stronger at this time in the 145 knots?
0 likes   

das8929

#5131 Postby das8929 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:22 pm

Omg. Hopefully it wont hit them head on.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#5132 Postby Ixolib » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:22 pm

jude wrote:i've lost them- 9:15 in NJ
anybody else?

This is an utterly amazing thing, this broadcast over the last two days..


me too... WINAMP says "service unavailable"?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2040
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#5133 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:23 pm

Wow... :( I really hope this doesn't happen...
0 likes   

ilmc172pilot
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 208
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 12:28 pm

#5134 Postby ilmc172pilot » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:23 pm

man, what a monster :grr:
0 likes   

User avatar
USAwx1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 936
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Marineland, FL

#5135 Postby USAwx1 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:23 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Great discussion, it's threads like this that make this board worth the time! Thanks . I have trying to describe what I saw happening. I have been learning here the "basics" of the synoptic patterns. Just so you don't think I'm blowing smoke

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44076

Keep it up :)


Benson, I would like to hear what it is your seeing, you may have some very good points, and im sure everyone else would like to also. please post your ideas.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38101
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#5136 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:25 pm

155 kt is 175-180 mph!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :cry: :(
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
SacrydDreamz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 311
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 9:00 pm
Location: Durham, NC
Contact:

#5137 Postby SacrydDreamz » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:34 pm

Camille's lowest pressure was likely lower than 905mb..... likely in the vicinity of Gilbert's 888mb.
0 likes   

dennis1x1

#5138 Postby dennis1x1 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:37 pm

going to take an abrupt turn for that to happen.....from due west to true nw.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145679
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

A hurricane watch may be needed for the Yucatan Penninsula

#5139 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:37 pm

Today Ivan didn't moved NW 310 degrees but instead it moved between 285-290 more west than north and if this motion continues my opinion is that the Yucatan Penninsula may have to have at least a hurricane watch.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

chakalakasp

Re: I'll take y'alls word for it...

#5140 Postby chakalakasp » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:37 pm

Houstonia wrote:I can't listen... I had to turn it off. The music was too much crap (sorry if I offended any rap fans - I just happen to not be able to stand it).

So, please summerize here if you get a chance!


Man, you missed the part where the wind gust took the roof off the building and sucked the DJ into the sky!

And the amazing thing is, he managed to keep playing rap music the entire time!
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests