Ivan Advisories

Sean in New Orleans · #5201 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:49 pm

Brent wrote:Public Advisory http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT34.KNHC

Discussion http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT44.KNHC

Landfall near Panama City Wednesday Afternoon

I'm finally seeing a city on my projection---granted it's the eastern most city...I'm Mobile to Panama City, but, we're getting warmer!! :lol:

#5202 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:49 pm

That's because the 00Z runs of the tropical suite have Ivan doing a wide right curve into the big bend wednesday/thrursday.
check the thread
"just about all models"
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44120

frankthetank · #5203 Postby **frankthetank** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:49 pm

I really doubt locals would listen on there computers....if they *have* power they would listen radio or tv...makes much more sense...

mobilebay · #5204 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:50 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It sounds to me like the NHC is downplaying the leftward trend of the models for the moment. I think if it wasn't for the past landfalls on Florida they would have shifted the projected track even further west. I think they DON'T want to give Florida residents a false sense of security this far out. I totaly agree with that thinking if that's the case.
We ALL know with hurricanes that just because they say it's suppose to go there doesn't mean it will. Everyone along the NE GOM S.Fl, & C.GOM NEED to beware of Ivan.

See quote below from 11pm EDT discussion to see what I mean.

The current NHC track forecast has been
adjusted very slightly to the left of the previous one...but it is
on the eastern side of the latest model guidance suite.

So the people in the western Florida Panhandle don,t need to be concerned even though the models are trending there way? :roll:

The storm has actually tracked left of the models the entire track of Ivan.

#5205 Postby **TSmith274** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:50 pm

I wouldn't rule out the Yucatan at all. The high pressure ridge has baffled everyone and moved all the way to the Yucatan. IMO, this will insure a more W to WNW motion for perhaps as much as the next 2 days. Now, is that enough time for Ivan to actually make landfall on the peninsula? Probably not, but Ivan should pass through the channel at least.

calidoug · #5206 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:50 pm

Ah, NHC 11PM discussion confirms the direction:
285 / 7

#5207 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:51 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:well the model consensus is still in florida...just further over in the panhandle....so i dont thing the florida conspiracy angle is valid.

when they say they are on the right edge of the consensus...they are only talking about 30-40 miles it appears.

They said it is based on the Eastern side and not the middle of the model
guidance suite.

Tri-State_1925 · #5208 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:52 pm

Like 2 days ago, I still don't think this will drop below 900...because it just doesn't happen in the Atlantic every 15 years, no matter how freakish a storm it may be. Still think the winds will get up to Mitch range though.

I'll go with 900

Raebie · #5209 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:52 pm

Damn. I listened to them talk for 5 hours. I feel like I just hung out with them and got to know them abit.

I feel like crying right now.

Sean in New Orleans · #5210 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:53 pm

I believe this system will move west of 90 degrees and then move north and then northeast back to an area from Mobile to Panama City, FL

dennis1x1 · #5211 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:53 pm

yes i know...right and east means the same thing...they are on the right (east) of the consensus...but only by a few miles...the models are a few miles west of the official track...but not outside florida as the original poster seems to be alluding too..

as to "who should be concerned"....according to the nhc..anyone from new orleans to fort meyers should be concerned at this time.

Raebie · #5212 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:54 pm

Andrea just emailed me from the station. They're back up!!

LSUChamps0002 · #5213 Postby **LSUChamps0002** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:57 pm

Derek -

I am a novice, so I am just asking this question.

All these models and forecasts have been too far right, for awhile now. They keep adjusting west as Ivan keeps moving west.

I guess my question is, why should someone such as myself (novice, by New Orleans, LA) take these continually revised forecasts as something to go by?

I do not want to disregard yours or the NHC or anyone else's, as you know 500 times as much as I do about these things. It just seems to me no one has a good grasp on where this thing is going, and I am getting concerned b/c they keep shifting west.

A little more west and I will be a little more concerned.

As I said, not trying to be ignorant or 'flame' anybody, but I am just not sure if I should trust any forecasts, as they do not seem accurate.

Any guidance would be appreciated.

chakalakasp · #5214 Postby **chakalakasp** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:57 pm

LOL, they've gone from Ludacris straight to gospel reggae. What a strange station!

mobilebay · #5215 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:57 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:yes i know...right and east means the same thing...they are on the right (east) of the consensus...but only by a few miles...the models are a few miles west of the official track...but not outside florida as the original poster seems to be alluding too..

as to "who should be concerned"....according to the nhc..anyone from new orleans to fort meyers should be concerned at this time.

"Interists in the EASTERN gulf of MExico should monitor" what about the northern gulf coast where the models are trending.

Derek Ortt · #5216 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:57 pm

I'm having a hard time seeing the shear increasing. I currently dont see what feature will bring about the shear. Plus, these models have been producing some very lousy shear forecasts lately (dont even get me started with the GFS initial conditions for Isabel, thats for a paper I'm working on)

#5217 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:58 pm

calidoug wrote:It hasn't been moving due W for the past 6 hours...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

WNW. About 285, from 2015Z through 0215Z.

The GOM loop makes the N component even more clear:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Ivan will be making landfall into Mexico and you will still be looking for the
northern component, just kidding with ya
I hope you see that Ivan has not been playing by the rules so far.

crice · #5218 Postby **crice** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:58 pm

We were going to do staff training in Tallahassee next Wed. I'm thinking about the two of us going to Orlando and having the field people meet us there instead. Does anyone here think this is a good or bad idea?

lilbump3000 · #5219 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:59 pm

Any agreements or disagreements?

dennis1x1 · #5220 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:59 pm

ships did a fantastic job with frances' shear......and this shear is forecast to be much stronger....

just an fyi.

Ivan Advisories

Re: 11pm Ivan-165 mph winds, 910 mb pressure

Re: NHC Downplaying models leftward trend for now.

Tallahassee to Orlando

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