Ivan Advisories

[HollynLA]

I don't believe it is going to turn northwest tonight. It's skirting along the bottom of the high pressure ridge. It might begin a more NW turn during the day tomorrow, but who knows at this point.

[Guest]

is the Yucatan Peninsula in any danger?

[PurdueWx80]

Still N'awlins-ish, eh? I am falling in love w/ this model right now. I don't mean this in the sense that I love seeing a hit over or just east of New Orleans, but it has been steadfast in it's further west track. This track is almost identical to the 12Z. I can't WAIT to see the rest of the 00Z guidance!!

Also, look what else it develops to the E of the west-Atlantic upper low...another surface system. I definitely think this is possible as the ULL weakens and shear relaxes...particularly in the SE quadrant of the mid/upper system where divergence is most favorable for surface development.

[B-Bear]

Well, that was one hell of a northern jog.

[miamijaaz]

The only "split" in the ridge is to the NE of the storm. It has already missed this weakness. The ridge remains strong just to the NW of Ivan, which is why he has been moving so slowly. This (clockwise rotation) is evident in both the 00z upper air data, and any satellite loop. As the ridge breaks down, Ivan should begin moving a little more quickly to the WNW and NW. I still think he will just clip the western tip of Cuba, w/ very little land interaction.

I think we're talking about the same "split", although I see it to the North and Northeast of Ivan. You're saying Ivan is too far to the west to respond to it and should break up the ridge ahead of it, moving WNW and eventually NW. Makes sense to me (although anything away from the Florida peninsula makes sense to me now!).

[HurricaneBill]

10 PM update just read on the station.

Hurricane Ivan is expected to come near or go over the Cayman Islands sometime Sunday.

Current position is 18.3 N by 80.3 W. Moving WNW at 8 MPH. It is 105 miles SE of Grand Cayman island. Winds at 165 MPH.

Not according to "doubtful Dennis". j/k

[PTrackerLA]

Holy smokes, that basically shows a landfall on the LA/MS border! The trends are not our friend .

[Deana Cuevas]

Can someone please tell me if Tampa is still in any danger? I'm new and I really don't know what to make of the models. I thought there was something about a low/high pressure coming into the GOM which would push IVAN to the east. AM I JUST REALLY CONFUSED.... PLEASE HELP EXPLAIN THIS TO ME..

[calidoug]

NHC track map shows a NW turn beginning right at 11pm:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 20248W.gif

[stormwatcher]

one or two frames does not make a trend towards a particular direction. We have been seeing the bouncing Ivan all day. Only time will tell.

[Stormcenter]

Motion from 2115Z through 0315Z appears to be about 300.

Bad news for Grand Cayman.

Eye appears to be contracting in the last couple frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also might be entraining a little bit of drier air from the NW... convection not as intense on that side....

They call it a wobble which is what it's been doing all day.
Though it really does need to start turning NW now otherwise some of you guys in Florida are going to have a nervous breakdown.

[otowntiger]

How can that be the eyewall?? Isn't it still too far out? And those bands should be way more intense.

When the storm is that far away the intensity appears much less than actual. Since the radar beam has so far to go, it only picks up what is closest to it or what is strongest. So, for it to be picking up the rain and eyewall that far away indicates to me that it is in fact a very, very strong storm, as we all know.

[calidoug]

Stormwatcher, why do you think I used a 6 hour period consisting of 12 frames to estimate 300?

[CFL]

Well one thing is for certain: if we don't see a NW movement in the next 4 hours that NHC track is going to have to shift westward again.

[Clint_TX]

oh well...mine was deleted

[PurdueWx80]

Deana - it is still a little too early to tell. Sure, the trend has been for a panhandle or west hit as of the last 24 hours, but that doesn't mean it couldn't shift back east towards Tampa. These things are never clear this far out, which is unfortunate for citizens up and down the FL coastline. I would suggest you not worry quite as much at the moment though - you will have plenty of notice as to whether or not Tampa will feel the harshest impacts of Ivan. I personally think Tampa will be spared this time.

[gkrangers]

Well, anytime a frame goes W, its considered a turn and movement.

But anytime a frame goes NW, its considered a wobble.

But, this does appear to just be a wobble. Too bad the sattellite will go bye bye soon.

[NateFLA]

Cuban radar prob. isn't the quality that we have here in the states either.

That is one scary storm!

[calidoug]

While it still may be wobbling, it no longer appears (based on the past 12 frames) to be wobbling W.

Rather, it appears to be wobbling WNW, around 300.

This isn't really a surprise, given the NHC forecast track, which shows nearly NW motion commencing at the 11pm advisory time.

[stormwatcher]

Take it easy big boy... never said if hasn't turned. Just like to watch for a while before I am convienced. Sorry if I offended you. You guys take things way to personal on this site.