Ivan Advisories

[gkrangers]

795
URNT12 KNHC 120547
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0547Z
B. 18 DEG 26 MIN N
80 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2344 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 053 DEG 133 KT
G. 323 DEG 11 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 11 C/ 3084 M
J. 21 C/ 3079 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. WEAK SOUTH
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 2209A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 0544Z. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION.
SECONDARY WIND MAX 324 DEG AT 33NM.

[Possum Trot]

the difference in pressure isnt really enough to lift the ocean..if so we would be shot like darts through the eye of the storm when the eye passed

Huh?

Thanks for the answer. I'm not sure I understand your example. In my scenario the ocean would simply bulge into an area of lower pressure much like an old fasion barometer. If you're saying a 100 or so millibars difference is not enough to cause the surge effect, I think can accept that.

So, during Frances, when the storm was off the west coast of Florida, reports of storm surge off the East coast continued for hours. That was due to continued winds pushing the water or was it a mistaken media?

Next question. When storm surge is occuring, are waves cresting and breaking over and above the height of the storm surge?

[Stormcenter]

I know SE FL is not in the cone anymore but can we rest easy or do we still have to watch it.

By all means WATCH IT. In my opinion you guys are not out the woods.

[Hurrilurker]

Recon is in: 915mb, that sounds more like it.

[ericinmia]

storm surge height is if water was flat and placcid...
the waves and their crests are well above that.

So if there was a 10 foot storm surge and 5 foot waves you would have water hitting... (fill in the blank) at 15 feet above normal tide levels based on whether it was high or low tide.
-Eric

[glopst7162]

Sign Off?!? Jamaica radio MON!

What do you mean?

[dennis1x1]

yes..thats my point......the pressure difference isnt enough to lift the ocean..

and yes...secondary surge or at least high water levels can continue as long as onshore winds are there to pool up the water.....but the initial surge is by far the worst as the winds directly around the center are by far the worst in a strong hurricane (dont buy the "hurricanes are not a poiint they are broad area....thats bs....the EXTREME devastation caused by hurricanes are located in a very very localized area) and leads to the surge that you hear forecasted.

and yes...waves are on top and in addition to the forecast surge.....

the initial and possibly deadly surge is a "quick" event though and comes in fast and is over fast......which is what makes it so dangerous.

[Possum Trot]

Thanks Eric. My question wasn't very clear, but you figured out what I was asking.

[Agua]

Also for all that are interested it has moved .1 N and .4 W since the last advisory according to this.

Maybe the damned thing will just crash and burn in the Yucatan.

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/01Cienfuego ... uegosa.gif

[dennis1x1]

flat and placcid or plaid and flaccid?

[TSmith274]

Yeah, John Gumm is really a great meteorologist. He explains himself well.
A side note... I noticed the question about the rigs evacuating off the coast of Louisiana. I was actually in Venice, La. (which is at the mouth of the Missisippi River) today. I noticed A LOT of activity at Petroleum Helicopters. They taxi oil workers to and from the rigs by helicopter, and I've never seen it that busy. My only assumption is that they are busy bringing workers back from the rigs.

[Chilly_Water]

About fifteen minutes ago the DJ said he was going to somewhere safe, but they would "keep the music coming." I don't think we will hear as much news from this station as we did from the Jamaica station we all listened to last night. I DID heard that right? Can someone else confirm?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I was just looking at that...Ivan is wayyy down there, but, visible.

[GNWeather]

About fifteen minutes ago the DJ said he was going to somewhere safe, but they would "keep the music coming." I don't think we will hear as much news from this station as we did from the Jamaica station we all listened to last night. I DID heard that right? Can someone else confirm?

I heard the same thing, but then they said some girl was going to stay around. Who knows, nothing but music now. I think I am going to go to sleep and leave the station on at a low volume, see how long it lasts. Go figure the Jamaicans are not chicken!

Scratch that, the DJ is speaking, we got a voice! THEY LIVE!! HAHA!

[Canehater]

We are out of the woods as far as catastropic winds go. Tropical Storm winds we could see. My shutters are coming down tomorrow PM!

[ericinmia]

interesting.... i wonder if that is a radar glitch or what, but the eye moves some north, then around 1:30 or so, it just back south...
-Eric

[Chilly_Water]

Nevermind, you are right, GNW. I hope these reports continue. Waves from 12 to 15 ft? Whoa.

[Praxus]

Hmm where she get that 175 mph winds from. Guess a mistake...

[Sean in New Orleans]

interesting.... i wonder if that is a radar glitch or what, but the eye moves some north, then around 1:30 or so, it just back south...
-Eric

I think it's still wobbling around as it moves W/NW. It's easy to see wobbles on radar. I'm glad we have this link.