Ivan Advisories

[glopst7162]

News from the Cayman islands as of 11:30 PM.

"Hurricane Ivan, continuing its west-northwest path towards the Cayman Islands, is on a track for the eye to pass directly over Grand Cayman in the early tomorrow (Sunday) morning. Hurricane force winds are expected on Grand Cayman just after midnight with maximum winds of 165 mph expected tomorrow morning."

http://www.caymannetnews.com

[dennis1x1]

042
URNT12 KNHC 120729
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0729Z
B. 18 DEG 32 MIN N
80 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2357 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 119 DEG 140 KT
G. 036 DEG 12 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 11 C/ 3048 M
J. 19 C/ 3053 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. WEAK SE
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF977 2209A IVAN OB 13
MAX FL WIND 140 KT NE QUAD 0726Z. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION.
SECONDARY MAX WIND 120 KTS AT 041/27NM.

[Agua]

Probably correct Viper and, it's right on track. This thing is just getting wherever its going by stairsteping.

[logybogy]

so it's back to a Cat 4 145 mph winds

[cane_weary]

bigmike,
although every storm and area is different, this info about hurricane hugo might help a bit to give you and others that have asked similar questions a feel for what can occur inland with a major landfalling hurricane.

Hugo had been a tropical cyclone of such extreme intensity when hit the coast, that it roared through inland communities with unimaginable fury. Many residents of inland areas had not fled mobile and manufactured homes for more substantial shelter, expected only dangerous conditions near the coast. Hugo marched thorough the South Carolina killing scores of people, destroying property, and leaving untold sorrow. Many who had fled the coast found themselves in frighting weather conditins while they waited in motels, shelters, and schools.

In Berkeley county (80 miles inland) wind gusts up to 120 mph, destroyed twelve hundred mobile homes - killing eight residents. In Dorchester county, mobile homes, five apartment buildings, and the Galleria Shopping Center were leveled. In Clarendon county, Clarendon Memorial Hospital suffered extensive damage, and the roof of the new county courthouse was ripped off. In Florence, the Travelers Inn along I-95 lost its roof at the height of the storm, sending two hundred terrified evacuees running through the darkened buildings trying to find shelter.

Almost two hundred miles inland Hugo still had 100 mph wind gusts. The major metropolitan area of Charlotte, North Carolina suffered extensive damage. Thousands of large trees fell into homes and business around Charlotte, and glass was shattered in downtown skyscrapers. Torrential rains in Virginia flooded roads and cut power to 2 million people. By late on September 22nd, Hugo finally died over the cool forests of southern Canada.

copied from http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanehugo.htm

[AussieMark]

weakening temporarily

[LAwxrgal]

quick points: 1) 918 MB is still ridiculously low pressure, and 2) Ivan may be going thru an ERC. These fluctuations in intensity are temporary and can be expected with major canes like this.

[Chilly_Water]

Bigmike-to add to cane_weary's post-I was not in Charleston when Hugo hit. My GF was here. She stayed at home in West Ashley about 10 miles inland from the coast. Her parent's house, a brick-based with upper wood sided structure, is located right on the Stono River with marsh inbetween. Her house was not damaged much, BUT she SWEARS she would never stay for a 'cane again. Granted, the eye passed about 15 miles to the north over Sullivan's Island and Isle of Palms, her house fared very well for being only a few feet above sea level and 10 miles inland. BUT THEN AGAIN, this is only HER experience. I will NOT go so far as to make this gospel.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Looks like ERC to me...

[Matthew5]

Yes it is going through a eyewall replacement cycle. The main eye is 15 nmi wide with a weakness in the southern Quad. There is also a wind mix around 27 nmi in 41 nmi. This system is going to take about 12 hours to gets those wind maxs back together to form a new eye/eyewall. What else is for interest is the pressure is still around 918 millibars. So this system is fairly will packed. If the pressure doe's not go above what it was yesterday morning theres a chance that by tonight this system could be looking better then it looked tonight. What else needs to be said is 140 knots is 161 mph at 700 millibars. Which equals around 145 mph??? But It is still at least 150 mph hurricane. How strong should it gets by tonight we will see. Here is my guest 904 millibars it will bottom out with 170 mph winds. Lets see how I do???

[bahamaswx]

A godsend for Grand Cayman.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

a God send? what the heck are you talking about

[bahamaswx]

Damage increases exponentially in respect to windspeed. While the devastation will still be massive, Ivan undergoing an ERC as he moves across Grand Cayman is the best that could be hoped fo--as long as he doesn't complete it before he is west of the island anyway.

[Thunder44]

There really isn't much difference between 155mph and 165mph winds in damage.

[bahamaswx]

Oh but there is.

On the other hand, would you prefer to be in a 155mph cane, or a 165mph one? Given the choice of course. Yeah.

[logybogy]

Yes, there is a HUGE difference, especially the way homes on the cayman islands are constructed.

Most are built to withstand 150 mph winds, so a difference of just 10 mph could mean the difference between a home that is gutted with the roof gone and walls collapsing vs. a home with a heavily damaged but intact roof.

[wlfpack81]

Honestly there really isn't much of a difference from a normal human perspective between 145-155mph. Yea there could be a 10% diff or so but honestly either of those winds are going to pretty much flatten everything so honestly it makes no difference at this point. Now 115mph compared to 145mph, yea that's a difference but 155-165 is pretty much still total destruction and death.

[Thunder44]

Either choice, you home will still be destroyed. 165mph, may be just a little quicker.

[logybogy]

You don't understand building codes. You can construct a home to withstand winds up to about 150 mph. That's what the South Florida building code does and the homes in the Caymans are built to that standard, if not better. It's a very rich country.

The homes there will do well if this storm hits at 150 mph or lower. They will be damaged but they will not be gutted and destroyed with nothing but piles of debris left.

Now with 165 mph winds, there will probably be piles of debris.

Hurricane damage is based on an exponential scale. 10 mph difference doesn't equate to a 10% increase in damage, it's more like a 30-40% increase.

[Thunder44]

You don't understand building codes. You can construct a home to withstand winds up to about 150 mph. That's what the South Florida building code does and the homes in the Caymans are built to that standard, if not better. It's a very rich country.

The homes there will do well if this storm hits at 150 mph or lower. They will be damaged but they will not be gutted and destroyed with nothing but piles of debris left.

Now with 165 mph winds, there will probably be piles of debris.

Hurricane damage is based on an exponential scale. 10 mph difference doesn't equate to a 10% increase in damage, it's more like a 30-40% increase.

I have my doubts about buildings being able to withstand 150mph winds. Unless they're made of steel.