Ivan Advisories

[mobilebay]

That "front will have nothing to do with the path when ivan reaches the central GOM. THE TROUGH coming down the CONUS is what will steer Ivan on days three and four. One run the GFS is strong with it, he next much weaker. The GFS IMO is the worst performer on IVAN.

[tailgater]

HUH

[Anonymous]

missed to the south, when he was just off the s/western edge of Jamaica.

People, Ivan is taking a bead on the NE Yucatan. It's just that simple.

When Gilbert was moving in this general area. Forecasters kept saying; "Gilbert is expected to make a NW turn and get into the GOM."

Guess what? Gilbert kept chugging WNW and moved right across the Yucatan and then into the upper Mexican coast, never enetring the central GOM.

Sometimes, hurricanes are simply over analyzed.

I have ananalogy I like to use. It's related to a bowling ball.

Throw a really heavy bowling ball down the lane. It is supposed to curve in a way, into a certain pocket, within the pins. Guess what? Sometimes it doesn't happen, because 1) it wasn't thrown correct to begin with (release point) 2) it didn't hit the right marks on it's way down the lane and 3) it didn't have the right momentum (speed) when it was to be at those points (marks).

Hurricanes are much more complicated, for obvious reasons. BUT, when something is happening to a hurricane, that cannot be analyzed or understood, you just need to go with the flow and quit bucking the trend. Ivan, is one of those rare situations.

The bowling ball is headed toward the NE Yucatan.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

The eyewall is open to the South......What does this mean? If anything??

[Derek Ortt]

georgetown is now going underwater accoring to another caller

also, sats show the eye wall is now over cayman. north wobble. can even hear the wind on the phone interview

[caneman]

That "front will have nothing to do with the path when ivan reaches the central GOM. THE TROUGH coming down the CONUS is what will steer Ivan on days three and four. One run the GFS is strong with it, he next much weaker. The GFS IMO is the worst performer on IVAN.

Westerlies aren't going anywhere any time soon it doesn't look like. By the time it is all said and done it will be hard for any model to claim a victory, unless it follows the Canadian track which I don't see happening.

[jlauderdal]

a caller on wfor tv from Cayman is reporting that buildings and a shelter has lost its roof and water is coming into a shelter

yeah she just put the phone outside and it was roaring..she claims 5 ft of water on the street and few trees left.

[caneman]

The eyewall is open to the South......What does this mean? If anything??

Prob going thru another ERC

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Caneman, that is exactly why I just haven't been able to buy into the whole panhandle scenario! Everything I have ever seen, both in Florida and North Carolina has always shown that hurricanes don't "go through" those lines. They are shunted off to the northeast of them...way before their "eye" gets there....usually when their outer boundaries start bumping up against them.
So how are the models going right through the stalled front???? Do they predict that the front will simply disintegrate altogether?? Somebody please help me understand this! -I truly think this is the main reason why all of us on the west coast of florida aren't buying into the models this time around with any bit of faith!

p.s. Has anyone noticed that TWC has posted Cantore in Punta Gorda, Mike Seidel in Cedar Key and the girl (don't know name) in Redington Beach??? Do they suspect something very different to pan out here????

[Brent]

Ugh... I want landfall to hurry and get here. First it was going to be a Monday hit, then a Tuesday hit, now a Wednesday hit.

[Anonymous]

I just have to laugh, as these models have simply been so erratic.

Peopel need to stay focused on the 3 day forecast.

[Ixolib]

missed to the south, when he was just off the s/western edge of Jamaica.

People, Ivan is taking a bead on the NE Yucatan. It's just that simple.

When Gilbert was moving in this general area. Forecasters kept saying; "Gilbert is expected to make a NW turn and get into the GOM."

Guess what? Gilbert kept chugging WNW and moved right across the Yucatan and then into the upper Mexican coast, never enetring the central GOM.

Sometimes, hurricanes are simply over analyzed.

I have ananalogy I like to use. It's related to a bowling ball.

Throw a really heavy bowling ball down the lane. It is supposed to curve in a way, into a certain pocket, within the pins. Guess what? Sometimes it doesn't happen, because 1) it wasn't thrown correct to begin with (release point) 2) it didn't hit the right marks on it's way down the lane and 3) it didn't have the right momentum (speed) when it was to be at those points (marks).

Hurricanes are much more complicated, for obvious reasons. BUT, when something is happening to a hurricane, that cannot be analyzed or understood, you just need to go with the flow and quit bucking the trend. Ivan, is one of those rare situations.

The bowling ball is headed toward the NE Yucatan.

Interesting analogy... Do you believe this will be an all-Mexico event?

[HollynLA]

Everytime the projected track is updated, the storm would have to be moving NW from the current point to stay on track, it has yet to move NW but rather WNW. This NW forecast has been going on for days now. Once again, for Ivan to follow the NHC forecast, it would have to move NW as of now to follow it. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong as I'm just not understanding this.

[Ixolib]

Caneman, that is exactly why I just haven't been able to buy into the whole panhandle scenario! Everything I have ever seen, both in Florida and North Carolina has always shown that hurricanes don't "go through" those lines. They are shunted off to the northeast of them...way before their "eye" gets there....usually when their outer boundaries start bumping up against them.
So how are the models going right through the stalled front???? Do they predict that the front will simply disintegrate altogether?? Somebody please help me understand this! -I truly think this is the main reason why all of us on the west coast of florida aren't buying into the models this time around with any bit of faith!

p.s. Has anyone noticed that TWC has posted Cantore in Punta Gorda, Mike Seidel in Cedar Key and the girl (don't know name) in Redington Beach??? Do they suspect something very different to pan out here????

naa... they probably got cheap hotels and don't wanna give 'em up 'til the last minute.

[storm4u]

I hope all the people there are doing ok I dont even want to kno what it would be like to be there knowing that you have no place to go

[LCfromFL]

Wasn't the NHC track one of the more eastern tracks prior to this model run? I could have sworn that's what I saw (it was before coffee, and before the 12z run) Now it's one of the most western - except for the GFDL (in this link).

I live NW of JAX - and I'm supposed to fly to Pittsburgh at 6 am tomorrow (Monday). Thomas Creek is FINALLY out of my backyard (although still flooded in the woods behind my property). Every shift east in the models gives me heartburn...do I stay? do I go? I'm taking this update by update - model run by model run.

[Anonymous]

NOPE...I have predicted a landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Panama City, since Labor Day, I am sticking with my amateur forecast.

[Brent]

The center of the eye did "miss" them, but they are getting hammered by the northern eyewall, the worst part of the hurricane.

[jlauderdal]

I hope all the people there are doing ok I dont even want to kno what it would be like to be there knowing that you have no place to go

trust me...they arent doing ok.

[Jetman]

A private weather station on Cayman reported a maximum gust of 88 mph last hour. rain rate 36 i/hr