Earl Advisories

goodlife · #561 Postby **goodlife** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:08 am

sure wish I knew what all those numbers mean....

GalvestonDuck · #562 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:10 am

goodlife wrote:sure wish I knew what all those numbers mean....

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm#basics

#563 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:10 am

still a SE wind on the SW side of convection = evidence for open wave - Also, winds on islands south of system indicate an open wave, or if there is a low level center, it hasn't pulled them into the storm from that far away

#564 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:19 am

289
URNT11 KNHC 161405
97779 14054 20132 69200 03400 13030 25239 /0012 41235
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 16

Making passes thru system looking for something that may resemble a LLC but nothing so far.

GNWeather · #565 Postby **GNWeather** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:24 am

Open wave as it appeared last night, but wasn't allowed to be confirmed!

955
WTNT35 KNHC 161420
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 16 2004

...EARL DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EARL UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

$$

goodlife · #566 Postby **goodlife** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:28 am

WOOHOO!!
Good news...

#567 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:29 am

That is the BEST looking wave I've ever seen.
But as I stated in a previous post it will only
be a temporary thing. I think most of us on this board
believe that Earl will eventually regenerate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Website · #568 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:35 am

I give it about a 70% chance of regeneration.

Thunder44 · #569 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:36 am

URNT11 KNHC 161420
97779 14204 20132 68500 03500 10032 23239 /0014 41140
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 17

;

URNT11 KNHC 161424
97779 14244 20133 68400 03500 10037 24239 /0014 41235
RMK AF977 0305A EARL OB 18
LAST REPORT

Looks like they've given up.

~SirCane · #570 Postby **~SirCane** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:37 am

It looks close to becomming a TD again. I give it till 7AM Tuesday morning and it will be Earl once again.

#571 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 9:38 am

Yep until tommorow morning again.

snowflake · #572 Postby **snowflake** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 10:18 am

Earl is now a Tropical Wave. Hopefully if it regenerates it will be slow to do so. Maybe just a Tropical Storm.

Rainband · #573 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 10:32 am

Hope he is dead and gone :wink:

for good

snowflake · #574 Postby **snowflake** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 10:45 am

KatDaddy wrote:Expect a TW later today rather than a TS or TD. Earl is having a very very tough time organizing. Also means models will shift left into Central America

Do you really think that it may go into Central America?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

hurricanefreak1988 · #575 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 10:46 am

The east Caribbean does it again. Unbelievable. :grr:

No worries, though. Like most storms that pass through the "graveyard of tropical storms" and die, he'll probably just re-form once he gets to the west Caribbean :lol:

Anonymous · #576 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:05 am

it was moving way too fast !

AccuWx perpective:

Meanwhile, "Earl" is now an open wave and is located near 13.2 north and 71 west. Movement was to the west-northwest at 25 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm was still too close to the South American coast to strengthen much, and little change will occur through Monday. Once the storm moves into the more open parts of the Caribbean, it will probably pick up steam and perhaps become a hurricane before making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday. A reconnaissance mission is scheduled for Tuesday.

rbaker · #577 Postby **rbaker** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:23 am

5am advisory had it at 21 mph, and way to much convection to say this system is dead. Have we not learned from previous experiences in last two wks, let alone last few years, that dead means no clouds, no showers, nothing. Bonnie prime example in nw caribbean was down to about 3 showers, but apparently still was on life support and came through. So lets not jump the gun, and say that a system is done, because it has lost its llc. It may not get back a llc, then again maybe it will, we will know soon enough.

snowflake · #578 Postby **snowflake** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:24 am

The weatherman here said that the best guess right now would be for Earl to move over the Yucatan, back out over the water and landfall in Mexico.

rbaker · #579 Postby **rbaker** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:34 am

its unreal what some say, because it doesn't look like a cat 2 storm, it looks bad. Granted it doesn't look a well formed as yesterday, but this could this be just a temporary wave situation. Every storm has its ups and downs, this one is no exception.
Let's just wait until time goes by, to see what happens with the system. By far the system has more deep convection than yesterday, even though the outflow was decent in most directions. So today we find out there is no llc, so what then we write it off. As I said before, we have some short memories on this board, just like last month when people were freaking out because we hadn't had a td up to July 31. Then boom, we all know the rest of the story. Moral of the story it ain't over till its over.

CaluWxBill · #580 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 11:37 am

Yes, there is an awful lot of convection, if it holds together, this thing will redevelop for sure. but no, not an eye, not even much rotation.

Earl Advisories

11 AM advisory=Earl is dead

Best wave.....

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