Ivan Advisories

[donsutherland1]

SwampDawg,

Given the amount of water vapor in a hurricane and the limited amount of absorbent material available--assuming no environmental harm from the dumping of such material--I doubt that this experiment would have a significant impact on the hurricane. It might be more akin to dumping a few hundred rolls of paper towel into an Olympic-sized swimming pool.

[nicdeedoop]

alicia, thats what I'd assume.. they were all lined up on the right side of the building under that canopy......

[baygirl_1]

Derek--
I have been paying very close attention to your forecasts and you seem to be right on target... unfortunately! I'm getting more and more concerned with every advisory. Even with my limited meteorological knowledge, it sure is looking worse for us in the North Gulf Coast area.
We're watching and waiting up here... and getting our plans in order. The family phone lines have been busy yesterday and this morning! Thanks for sharing your forecasts.

[PurdueWx80]

and it has trended to the WEST! I'm inclined to ignore this shift for now, but it has even higher implications for LA (and TX?). Here is the fcst at 72 hrs.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_50.gif

[AL Chili Pepper]

I havnt been checking the eta, so I wouldnt know either way

I do intend to shift even farther left at 11 unless some world changing data comes in between now and then to convince me otherwise

Don't do it Derek!

Seriously though, how do you see that little vortex rotating around Memphis and NE Arkansas playing out. Will this help dig the trough?

[Rainband]

I am still sticking to cedar key. I think the trof will weaken the high.

[anjou]

Darwin Award......................Nobel Prize
x-----------------------------------------x
1...........2............3............4...........5

[donsutherland1]

Mattie,

Nowhere does the article at the beginning of the thread suggest that the dumping would be targeted at tropical cyclones in their embryonic stages. Moreover, its suggestion that "Peter Cordani of Jupiter plans to try to knock the storm down by one or two categories" suggests the targeting of a mature storm.

Overall, given the ratio of water vapor in a hurricane, much less the physics involved in tapping new water vapor to replace that lost in rainfall, to the absorbent likely available suggests that this endeavor would likely have no meaningful impact on the strength of Ivan or any other mature major hurricane.

[LSUChamps0002]

The turn? Boy I keep waiting for any sign of this turn. It went south of Jamaice, not turn. It went soth of Cayman, no turn. No we are going to the center of the gom, then a turn.

From here in New Orleans, where I am about to see the Saints play ...

My kingdom for the turn.

[Greg]

I've got an idea! Everyone break out their leaf blower. Mine goes 200 MPH.

[glopst7162]

http://www.caymannetnews.com/2004/09/738/damage.shtml

[raynpa]

anything is possible with this MONSTER.....

[weatherFrEaK]

Not from the radio, but firsthand cell phone Grand Cayman account on another forum...

SUV washed away.
Water coming in to second story in condo.
Boats coming in and smashing everywhere.
Cars floating everywhere.
Everything is water now.
People next door screaming as water comes in to second floor.
Roofs off everywhere.
Cell phone communications now lost.

[LowMug]

Ivan has wobbled off of the NHC track once more to the west again...has somebody told Ivan he is going the wrong way...oh yeah maybe it is the predicted shortwave...or perhaps the trough...or perhaps the weakening ridge.

Looks to me like he isn't listening!

[Ivanova]

Quote from article:

Most of the U.S. oil and gas production platforms
in the Gulf are off the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
That area would be threatened if the storm veered
farther west than the path it's currently expected to take."


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... o&refer=us

[Stormsfury]

Concentric eyewalls 15 NM and 50 NM ... and less of a temperature differential on lines I and J ... pressure up to 921 mb ...

410
URNT12 KNHC 121439
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1439Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
81 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2411 M
D. 080 KT
E. 323 DEG 045 NM
F. 069 DEG 131 KT
G. 326 DEG 025 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3031 M
J. 17 C/ 3032 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15-50
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 1428Z

[KWT]

I agree,anything is possible...ANYTHING.

[canegrl04]

Time to throw out models.They have been so su**y thru Ivan.I would rather rely on my own opinions about where a hurricane is headed than any of those models

[Aquawind]

Wow..
I haven't even attempted reading a supplemental..not today either..football break after 4 days of conelife..

[mobilebay]

Don't Ignore. The new GFS is coming in much further left through 72H. caution though it is not made landfall through 72 and a right hook may occur like on other runs.