Ivan Advisories

[al79philly]

Read this regarding New Orleans and just hope Ivan doesnt hit head the city on.... http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

[alicia-w]

I think someone said earlier (and I apologize now for not being to give specific credit) that it's most likely because if they move the track west, then Tampa falls out of the path projection cone. A form of CYA....

[Stormsfury]

This closeup 1 km resolution kinda gives the idea of the Double Eyewall with a decent ring of convection around the inner eyewall followed by the break, more apparent in the northern and western semicircle in this image ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/IvanDoubleEyewall.jpg

[Ivanova]

Read this regarding New Orleans and just hope Ivan doesnt hit head the city on.... http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

I wonder if the "New City" in Nostradamus X-49
could be New Orleans

I know... I'm off topic... I will try to behave


*

[Sean in New Orleans]

Here is a brief morning update from David Bernard, local met from WWL-TV here in New Orleans..

Here is the link to keep things legal:

http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/bi/discuss ... apsed&sb=5

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It sure looks like tomorrow could be a critical day, as Ivan approaches the Gulf of Mexico. Everyone is looking at the models. The real question is how strong is that Atlantic ridge? The ETA and CMC bulge the ridge to the west coast of Florida. Combined with a weak steering flow over the mid Gulf by Monday and Tuesday and you get all kinds of headaches for us forecasters. I would really like to see the big NW/N turn tonight or tomorrow morning.

I will be studying the upper air charts closely, today. In addition, I will be doing some verification work. A look at the past two days, however, has shown an underestimation of the ridge by the models, when compared with reality.

One encouraging, sign, this morning is that the trof diving into the area looks pretty strong. If it sticks around through tomorrow, then shift to our east should occur.

I'll check back in with you guys, this evening. Tomorrow mornning, I will likely not be able to post until near the end of the morning show. However, if I know John, you might get an "overnight" post before he heads off to sleep.

Right, John?



David Bernard
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[GulfHills]

What does CYA mean?

[mobilebay]

I think someone said earlier (and I apologize now for not being to give specific credit) that it's most likely because if they move the track west, then Tampa falls out of the path projection cone. A form of CYA....

Unless the 12Z UKMET shifts east at 12Z (be out shortly) or the EURO, they will not have much of a choice. The threat to New orleans is clearly rising, and we know that the evacuation time their is critical.

[rdcrds]

[quote="Ivanova"][quote="al79philly"]
Read this regarding New Orleans and just hope Ivan doesnt hit head the city on.... http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html
heh same thing if it hits tampa bay area. the place would be devistated

[Cape Verde]

Their 11 am update is more detailed, and considerably more frightening.<P>Thanks for the link.

[al79philly]

I wonder if the "New City" in Nostradamus X-49
could be New Orleans

That is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS.... Go back and read the Nostradamus passage you are referring to.... At the beginning, you will clearly see the following "EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY - USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR"

[ericinmia]

That run is flawed just like the gfs... i said the same thing last night with the runs from yeterday.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

By looking at those maps you can see what is REALLY occuring over the past 24+ hours at all different levels. The global models are believing that the bermuda high is going to move in and over florida, however, it is moving east right now. The azores high is moving no-where fast either. In fact both are looking fairly weak in comparison to their levels yesterday, and the day prior. The ULL over the atlantic is still in place, and retaining the high over the eastern atlantic.

For the westward track to occur, after the breakdown in the ridge.... The azores or bermuda high would have to circumvent the ULL in the atlantic, and push far west quickly building a wall over the majority of the florida peninsula. The models have been predicting this exact thing for days now, and nothing has occured.

I think we are looking at a new situation for whicch we have yet to create a model that can accurately handle.

This is by no means a forecast. I am simply explaining that the models are incorectly portraying the progression of the two mid atlantic highs, which currently are bridged north to south, to the east of a strong ULL.

This hurricane should teach us a lot about this complex situation, (cat5 and very complex weak stearing currents).
Just relax wait and see. The NHC will have enough time no matter where this goes to give the proper accurate warning to those that need it.
-Eric

[BigO]

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

Did you see that picture at the beginning of that article? I own one of the 5 houses left that Georges didn't destroy. There used to be sixty of them out there and only 5 survived.

[Mello1]

What does CYA mean?

Cover

Your

Azz...

[rbl13]

Forget what John Gerard said this morning. Last night his co-hort ,Roland Steadham, reported at 11:00 to "go ahead and take the shutters down".
What happened to "erring on the side of caution?" This announcement did seem a tad premature and irresponsible on behalf of the news station!

[LAwxrgal]

Mitch, Gilbert, Allen -- three of the baddest of the bad in whose company Ivan now resides -- all were forecast to go north and didn't.

HMMM

[gkrangers]

The government-run Radio Cayman is currently off the air as a result of damage to the building housing its studios, with floodwater 2 feet deep in the parking lot. According to Radio Cayman’s News Director, Joel Francis, “We just didn’t see this coming.”


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Yeah, those pesky Category 5 hurricanes just sneek up on us.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's at this point that I'm going to begin to glue myself more to our local mets...I will begin to pose more cases and scenario's with these guys when the system enters the Gulf of Mexico....as much as I hate to say it, New Orleans is not out of the woods, by any means. Local met Bob Breck said yesterday that the worst case scenario for New Orleans is if Ivan goes through the Yucatan Channel. It became clear to me, yesterday, that Ivan would likely miss Cuba, altogether, and it appears just as likely, today, that Ivan will go through the Channel. Whether or not New Orleans gets Ivan remains to be seen, but, at this point, I think it is looking more and more likely that Ivan may pass 90W.

[canegrl04]

"Think of a figure skater pulling her arms in"

Or a boxer swalling down more steroid pills

[Agua]

Add Camille.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sorry, bfez, I didn't see your thread until just now...