Ivan Advisories

[yoda]

Yep... here's IVAN!!! Will the I storm be a bad one again? We will see...

[Hurricane Cheese]

hmmmmmmmm, me thinks Ivan won't be a big sissy and weaken like his lil sis Frances....

Hello Carribean!

[dennis1x1]

now thats some serious shear........circ well to ne of blob.

[Hyperstorm]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 030835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

...IVAN FORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...NINTH NAMED STORM OF THE
2004 SEASON...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES... 985 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...10.0 N... 30.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN

[Hyperstorm]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 030840
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE...T.D. NINE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IVAN. IVAN
CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. GLOBALS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH IVAN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SAVE NOGAPS WHICH IS SLOWER AND MORE
POLEWARD...AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ESSENTIALLY MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS.

IVAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SITUATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND
IVAN WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO
AGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN IVAN TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY 84
HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL NOT
TOTALLY DIMINISH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 10.0N 30.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 10.1N 33.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 10.3N 36.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 10.6N 39.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 10.9N 42.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 11.6N 49.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 13.0N 55.2W 80 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 15.0N 61.0W 85 KT

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

5 day track map...

[Tertius]

So, just leave the freakin' boards up. Gotcha. Interesting season this year......

[ncbird]

****Jumps up and down and has a fit ***

I know we are in the hight of hurricane season, but a sleep break sure would be nice.

[Hyperstorm]

Let's just hope this is no repeat of Georges because I'll fall off my chair...

[siobhan222]

This is lovely. In other words, if Frances doesn't get us, Ivan might.

I've heard the expression "no peace for the wicked" but this is a bit much!

[yoda]

Let's just hope this is no repeat of Georges because I'll fall off my chair...

How will this become another Georges?

[Hyperstorm]

Here comes the misunderstandings...

Let's just HOPE this is not another Georges as some models are indicating making it through the Lesser Antilles and just south (it could go further north or further south) of the Greater Antilles into the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's just hope...

[yoda]

Here comes the misunderstandings...

Let's just HOPE this is not another Georges as some models are indicating making it through the Lesser Antilles and just south (it could go further north or further south) of the Greater Antilles into the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's just hope...

OH ok, I understand now Hyperstorm.

[jlauderdal]

So, just leave the freakin' boards up. Gotcha. Interesting season this year......

that is great advice. after hanging 63 steel panels and 10 pieces of plywood yesterday my body this morning is saying no mas. i wll be taking some of the stuff down when it passes but at 75% of it is staying up. 5 years ago during floyd it wasnt a big deal but i am 5 yeatrs older and am feeling it..

[quickychick]

At which point it will be officially renamed "OMFGFS"

Haw!

[CFL]

Too close to my neck of the woods. Thankfully my hurricane stock is nicely supplied in advance due to Miss Frances.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the misunderstandings...

Let's just HOPE this is not another Georges as some models are indicating making it through the Lesser Antilles and just south (it could go further north or further south) of the Greater Antilles into the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's just hope...

Your are right Ivan is almost at the position Georges was at that longitud and after that we know here in Puerto Rico what happened.I see this one as the biggie for the islands in 2004.

[rainstorm]

one thing. the longer frances is stalled, the bigger the trough will be to frances east

[Hyperstorm]

one thing. the longer frances is stalled, the bigger the trough will be to frances east

Excellent point. The concern is for a more WNW heading as it approaches the central/northern islands and Puerto Rico...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Here we go again.....