Bonnie Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

Yes there is reason to feel that this may not actually be a TD ATT. However will wait to see what recon's word is on that matter, and will adjust forecast from there if neccesary.

[Aquawind]

IF the LLC does exist and it is further south.. The Deep convection looks pretty nasty from Barbados and could be concentrating as the northern portion is currently warming..either way the convection is persisting..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Evidently there is something that is making them increase the winds..They have the tools and means to use them better than just generic sat pics..Well see...funny as soon as looks open it can organize as well..even with the forward speed..this is nothing new for CV waves..they have teased our eyes for years..it can go poof and we will ride it until the next one or it's over land..

[Guest]

TD 2 does NOT look good this evening... the fast foward speed is ripping the guts of the TD .

TD 2 is important b/c its development will tell us IF the same problem we have had over the last 2-3 seasons in the MDR -- manin development regon is STILL there. Recall last season and 2002 and 2001 how many seemingly healthly TW TD and TS got destroyed or seriously Damaged moving into the Carribean basin--even the western caribbean... Chantal Debby ...

So with TD2 we might get a good indicator that this tendency for very fast foward speeds is over --- or it is still there.

TD 2 has been moving 20 MPH and once again we see the fast foward movement of TD creating RELATIVE SHEAR.... in other words the LLC center races east ahead of the convection and the thing dies.... or barely manages to hold together.

Thus if TD 2 does become an open wave or fails to develop Until it is OUTSIDE of the MDR.... then this would be an indicator that we are going to have the same problems as before.

The term Relative shear... is NOT shear is the normal sense.... where winds at the 850 MB level is from one direction and the winds at 700 MB level are 180 degrees different

This shear is created by the fast movement of the LLC with respect to the convection

[Stormchaser16]

Great post DT.....

Forward acceleration..... that creates vertical shear correct?

[Brent]

The models initialized this at 30 kts(35 mph) this evening, that's why.

NW wind at Barbados at 11pm. That should mean there is an LLC.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Thanks for the explanation. I knew it looked bad. However, the forward speed (if published forward speed refers to the speed of the llc) has decreased in the last advisory, which should impact its development capacity during this period and reduce the shear.

[ncweatherwizard]

Forward speed...rather in combination with winds at various levels and its direction.

[Guest]

its RELATIVE SHEAR.... which is not the same as atmospheric shear caused by multi directional winds at various levels

[KatDaddy]

Great to see you posting again. I appreciate you viewpoint. I remember Lily quite well and thought the Upper TX Coast was ground zero. I remember your arguements and models that support your solution.

[Stormsfury]

Stormchaser16, relative shear in this sense, is taking the actual low level circulation and seeing it outrace the convective envelope ...

For example, let's say that the LLC (like right now) is moving 23 kts ... however, the MLC (and convective envelope) is only moving 16 kts ... that's 7 kts difference, and the LLC will outrun its own convection, and thusly ... an eventual poof ... the LLC unable to sustain itself ...

SF

[Stormchaser16]

O ok, yes i understand what happens when it moves too fast, but i saw the term vertical shear being thrown around a few times with another wave like this, and i took it to mean shear created by a system moving too fast(thus not being able to vertically stack)

[Matthew5]

This storm has alot of energy, in a large area. These kind of storms that hold together at this speed are the ones when they slow down. That bomb out of now where. Do not play this storm down yet!

[tailgater]

I also see that TD2 doesn't look as well as it had 12 or 24 hrs. ago,but the thing is, it's going about the same or a little slower than it was when started developing so there must be other factors.

[FWBHurricane]

Im going to post my forcast for this storm, bare with me please im kinda new at this and might get alot wrong...but its worth a try.

Looking at the recent satellite loop it seems that it has gotten alittle better organized, convection still holding around what looks like a much further south center than origionally thought. I agree with rainstorm in that some shear is starting to affect it, but only slightly. With that said, i do beleive this system will become a TS but not anytime soon. With some slight shear over it and it moving really fast, it needs to catch up with itself. I think by tomorrow night or thursday ( if conditions become better ) it will become a Tropical Storm. I looked at the satellite loops and the trough isnt moving very fast. I seriously think this is going to become a bigger threat then everything thinks. The TD is moving faster than the Trough...and i think by the time they meet...TD2 ( Or Bonnie ) will have already passed Haiti, postioning itself south of Cuba near Jamaica. Once the trough picks it up it will move WNW then NW towards the Bahamas and then the Carolinas again. This is if it survives the mountains of Cuba but i doubt it will be a big problem. I think this could be a large threat to some land areas up north into NC..again!

( I hope you like...sounds kinda iffy to me but atleast i tried. )

[Stormchaser16]

All in all a good post FWB, but a few things I will make note of-

First the only shear affecting this system is relative shear... its moving too fast is the bottom line

Second, as TD2 continues to head west, no matter how fast it wants to race, it only seems meteorologically sound that it will find the weakness in the Western atlantic ridge created by Alex and turn in response to that. If that doesnt occur, well then IDK, the front will still pick it up but with more hesitation i suppose. Once it rounds the western edge of the high, a more poleward motion will occur(likely a WNW track) that should bring it close to the Bahamas, by this time the front will be oncoming and should throw this puppy northward.

[Air Force Met]

i think dissipation has occured

In order to dissipate seomthing...you have to have something to begin with...and that is debatable. I would not call it dissipation...it is still well developed...even if it is a wave. IN order to call it dissipated...you would have to have determined that a well developed LLC existed and now it doesn't...and the convection and organization has dissipated. That obviously has not happened.

So...dissipation has not occured. I still see it on satellite and can disinguish it as a system...so that is technically incorrect.

[dixiebreeze]

TD 2 does seem to be blooming with added convection early this morning (12:43 a.m.).

[MGC]

The LLCC has dissipated. Looks more and more like an open wave tonight....MGC

[lilbump3000]

Even if the front and trough make it very far south like they talking about, it will start to weaken the futher south it gets like they always do.

[HURAKAN]

Does anyone know at what time exactly the RECON will investigate the system? Because they say early Wednesday, but could be from 5 AM - NOON.