Ivan Advisories

[Fodie77]

Its going to go south of that second point.

Definitely, I would be shocked if the NHC didn't shift their track further west.

[Weatherboy1]

I've had 'em up since Frances, and now I'm confident this thing is coming nowhere near me anymore. If it's going to go anywhere outside the current forecast track, it'll be to the west, not east, of it. The low behind that shortwave has stopped digging south, and other than that, there is nothing out there to cause any kind of sharp eastward turn. So it's finally time to let all the sun shine in and enjoy a nice FL day! Good luck to those of you in the Gulf who will likely have to deal with this thing eventually.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE EAST HALF OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GLFMEX.  THIS EVOLUTION IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW HURRICANE IVAN TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
NORTHWARD TODAY WITH THE POWERFUL HURRICANE REACHING THE SE
GLFMEX IN 24-36 HOURS. CURRENTLY...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ.

[tdess02]

Mobile AFD this morning paints an ominous picture for the North Central Gulf Coast. They say the trough will be lifting out by Tuesday. This is why some of the models have shifted far left. This is going to get very interesting.

[opera ghost]

Unless it turns almost due north- it cannot hit that second point..... Oh dear.

[lookout]

IMO anyone along the gulf coast has a right to discuss possible landfall in their area and the outcome if it does happen. No one is jumping to conclusions.

did i say noone has a right to discuss it? of course not, but throwing out all this doom and gloom would probably worry a lot of folks in the new orleans area unnecessarily. if its not jumping to conclusions talking about new orleans then what is it? this would imply a serious threat to that area which just doesnt seem possible in my view. just my 2 cents.

[lilbump3000]

They keep talking about that turn, and i sure will be here waiting for it to.

[LAwxrgal]

^ Excellent KatDaddy. Ivan has continued to go against the guidance and do what he wants. We just have to wait and see.

[BlueNole]

Worst case: could this put the FL peninsula back into play? Thanks,

[Anonymous]

YEP....it's going to make a turn toward the northwest at some point. That is a no brainer.

The point is, WHEN?

No big news here.

[jlauderdal]

Great weather in sofla due to subsidence on the edge of the cane

[Lindaloo]

No one in this thread SAID it was coming to them in New Orleans!! They are all discussing the "what if" if one as strong as Ivan comes there. You are mighty bold to even imply that it won't go to NO. NO ONE along the Gulf Coast should let their guard down. But yet, you basically say it is going to a certain area! That IMO is jumping to conclusions.

And it is your opinion on the doom and gloom.

Nice edit BTW!

[mobilebay]

They keep talking about that turn, and i sure will be here waiting for it to.

Yea that dad burn sneaky turn

[Sean in New Orleans]

I think the Florida Peninsula is in the clear---especially the southern half. If I was there, I would take the boards down and let the light inside the house.....This storm isn't coming to the Peninsula of Florida. It's safe to say that, IMO.

[QueenBee]

Cyclcloneye How strong do you think this through is? I mean on the weather models I have seen earlier the rain was going east to west off of the Louisiana coastline.

[roostercogburn]

Rainband, if you enjoy the adrenaline rush of a hurricane that is cool. Admit it though. From reading your posts I just get the feeling that you are clinging to any news that this beast may turn our way.

[wabbitoid]

I have a question that's been bugging me.

Long ago, as Ivan was nearing the Windwards, it was reported that it was convecting up to -80C. That means to me that it was convection up to the tropopause, or right at the limit of the stratosphere.

I don't know if it's still doing this, as they haven't reported that figure since. But isn't that above the shearing winds that would reduce its intensity?

So I have a several part question:

What is Ivan convecting to, and is that abnormally high?
How high are the shear winds of the trough?

Thanks so much.

[canegrl04]

TWC said it should be happening by tonight

[Cuzam]

Today Ivan didn't moved NW 310 degrees but instead it moved between 285-290 more west than north and if this motion continues my opinion is that the Yucatan Penninsula may have to have at least a hurricane watch.

I live in Cozumel (Eastern Coast of the Yucatan Penninsula) and since yesterday there have been public warnings on the radio for the people in Cancun, Cozumel and the Mayan Riviera to take the approrpiate precautions. Also, the boats that cross from the mainland to the Island have left since last night, so besides airplanes the Island is without sea communications. All boaters have placed their boats in safer areas. The day is really sunny (as usual) 31ºC and some wind from the North. The local authorities have mentioned we should be expecting storms, high winds (most certainly with higher gusts) probably thunder. All this sometime between today and tomorrow.

[Rainband]

Rainband, if you enjoy the adrenaline rush of a hurricane that is cool. Admit it though. From reading your posts I just get the feeling that you are clinging to any news that this beast may turn our way.

couldn't be father from the truth. How could anyone enjoy no power for days and havoc. I admit frances was kind of cool but after having no power for 28 hours and all the stress...... Guess you better turn in your degree on reading between the lines . I am more worried than anything else. My mother lives in a mobile home on the GOM