Alex Advisories

[ncweatherwizard]

We may get 15kts with Alex in 24 hours or less, but I feel more comfortable with 36 hours, since the intensification process seems to be leveling out temporarily. As for the disturbance, we may be looking at a depression before tomorrow night.

[Rainband]

Good news it wont make landfall.

[Rainband]

I trust The NHC

[Rainband]

Done as a precaution. The worst of the weather will be offshore. Like I said I trust The NHC

[Brent]

It's a safety measure. If the forecast verifies(strengthen, track, and wind radii), the hurricane force winds will NOT hit the coast. HOWEVER, any track to the left will, and given the erratic motion of this through it's life, I think it's a good idea.

[WXBUFFJIM]

The NHC did a good call there just to be safe. That northwest eye wall could potentially impact the outer banks, hence the hurricane warning. But the strongest winds are likely gonna be east and northeast of the center.

Jim

[ColdFront77]

Heading toward land, landfall close enough can still bring some interesting weather.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I wouldn't be surprised if this thing gets into another bursting phase as the evening wears on. It's definitely looking to be an interesting night not only because of the track, but the intensity as well.

[Bane]

He starting to intensify again rather quickly.

The outflow looks better. I'm waiting in anticipation of the next recon data.

[The Dark Knight]

Same here, Brent....

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 11.3N 46.4W T2.0/2.0 91
02/1745 UTC 31.8N 78.7W T3.5/3.5 ALEX

[The Dark Knight]

Very nice....

[Stormchaser16]

Isnt 2 the threshold for depression?

[dixiebreeze]

I believe T 2.5 indicates tropical storm strength, so you may be correct about T 2.0 being a depression.

[Stormchaser16]

Ya i think i remember someone saying that 2.0 was the threshold for depression

[Brent]

Yes. 2.0 is equal to 35 mph winds and a pressure of 1009 mb.

Latest NHC statement:

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Anonymous]

Here is the chart and yes 2.0 is TD.... I think the NHC is just waiting to see it maintain convection being it is so far out and they have time to watch it-It would be silly to upgrade only to have to downgrade it the next day.

Code: Select all

CI        MWS         MSLP           MSLP          Saffir-Simpson   
Number    (Knots)    (Atlantic)    (NW Pacific)         Category     
 1         25 KTS                                     (Approximate)
 1.5       25 KTS
 2         30 KTS      1009 mb        1000 mb
 2.5       35 KTS      1005 mb         997 mb
 3         45 KTS      1000 mb         991 mb
 3.5       55 KTS       994 mb         984 mb
 4         65 KTS       987 mb         976 mb        1  (64-83 KTS)
 4.5       77 KTS       979 mb         966 mb        1  (64-83 KTS); 2  (84-96 KTS)
 5         90 KTS       970 mb         954 mb        2  (84-96 KTS); 3  (97-113 KTS)
 5.5      102 KTS       960 mb         941 mb        3  (97-113 KTS)
 6        115 KTS       948 mb         927 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
 6.5      127 KTS       935 mb         914 mb        4  (114-135 KTS)
 7        140 KTS       921 mb         898 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
 7.5      155 KTS       906 mb         879 mb        5  (136+  KTS)
 8        170 KTS       890 mb         858 mb        5  (136+  KTS)

CI   -- Current Intensity
MWS  -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars


[The Dark Knight]

Yes...... Good point....

[ncbird]

I am not a pro at this, just someone who has lived on the east coast of NC for 12 years so can talk with some exp. as what we deal with here. It seems to me that almost all the hurricanes we have been hit by, have been predicted to go farther out, but their paths gradually seem to creep closer and closer till wham we are going to get a land fall. Our local weather guy made a good point a little earlier.... Alex has been wobbling east and west, and with as close as it is comming to the coast, all it is gonna take is a wobble to the west and wham someones gonna be sitting with a hurricane on them.

Alex might not be strong, and yes the worst winds are on the east side, but many in this area live in trailors or low lying area's. Even a weak Cat 1 can cause many problems not to mention the flooding headaches we always deal with.

[Rainband]

Short term (tonight through tuesday)...
impressive rain showers/thunderstorms and rain have developed over the County Warning Area...with the heaviest
storms occurring over ilm North Carolina counties. After consulting with
surrounding offices have decided to put ilm North Carolina counties
in a Flood Watch until 5 am Tuesday.


Still looks like the center of Alex will pass east of the Carolina
coast...but heavy rains and strong winds from the outer bands will
begin affecting the region later tonight and through much of the
overnight hours. East to northeast winds 20 to 30 miles per hour...gusting to
40 miles per hour...along the coast diminishing inland. Rainfall totals will
generally be in the 2 to 3 inch range but isolated areas of 4 inches
will be possible.


Persistent onshore flow ahead of Alex combined with a high tide
around 1000 PM this evening will provide an increased risk of
shallow coastal flooding. Some minor beach erosion is possible as
well with 5-6 feet surf pounding the beaches.


See latest tropical storm local statement issued by the National
Weather Service in Wilmington and the latest advisories from the
Tropical Prediction Center on Tropical Storm Alex.


On Tuesday the region will be on the backside of Alex with much
drier northwest flow in place. Will carry low chance probability of precipitation Tuesday afternoon in
the event some precipitation is wrapped around the back of the storm.


&&


Long term (tuesday night through monday)...


Drier air moving into the region Tuesday night with downsloping
Wednesday. Temperature guidance has been consistent and so little
change in forecast there with highs well up in the 90s...except for
the south and southwest oriented beaches.


Cold front and moderate short wave approaching from the northwest Thursday.
Increasing moisture and weak instability will help keep temperatures
a few degrees cooler ahead of approaching front. Frontal passage prognosticated for
Thursday night into Friday with probability of precipitation increasing to chance Thursday night the
dropping to 10 for Friday am.


Front pushes off the coast Friday with drier air and falling
thickness values over the region. Silent probability of precipitation Friday afternoon...mainly a
few isolated diurnal storms. Reinforcing surge of cool/dry air
arriving Saturday night into sun as upper trough swings off the
coast and lifts to the northeast. Highs sun below climatology with no probability of precipitation
planned. Cool/dry Canadian high remains over the region on Monday with
highs remaining below climatology.


&&


Aviation...
Tropical Storm Alex obviously the dominant player through the
period. Banded nature of precipitation thus far will make for
keeping showers confined to vc in predominant groupings with tempo
groupings for heavy tropical showers causing lowered ceilings and low
visibilities. Winds picking up through overnight hours but will keep ts
gusts out for now. Winds will also back from east or northeast to
northerly and then eventually northwesterly through overnight hours.


&&


Marine...
will keep tropical storm warnings going tonight for all waters as
Tropical Storm Alex slowly moves north-northeast along the coast. Tropical storm
force winds will scrape by the outer reaches of the South Carolina
coastal waters...but by nature of their more eastward reach the
North Carolina waters may get a healthier shot of ts winds
overnight. Coastal waters forecast issuance will be delayed until the receipt and
processing of tcm wind grids from the hurricane center.


Seas (already 8 feet at Frying Pan shoals) should build as high as 10
feet within 20 miles of shore in the North Carolina waters tonight...and as high
as 7 feet in the SC waters. Conditions will begin to rapidly improve
as the center of Alex moves north of the area Tuesday morning.


After Tuesday...the only other feature of note in the forecast is a
cold front which should move through the area Thursday evening.
Behind this front winds will become northerly and persist into the
weekend.


&&


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...
North Carolina...Tropical Storm Warning for ncz097-100-101.
... Watch for ncz087-096-097-99-100-101.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for scz034-046.
Marine...Tropical Storm Warning for amz250-252-254-256.
&&


$$
Aviation...mbb
marine...tra