Ivan Advisories

[rtd2]

quote"agree he seems to be more active at nite, .."




Dont they call that the Diearnal effect or something like that?

[logybogy]

The FSU Super Ensemble apparently has a hit now at Biloxi, Mississippi, and it has been trending west.

Why has the NHC been so stubborn with their far east outlier forecast when all the guidance shows further west? New Orleans will need plenty of time to evacuate. Literally tens of thousands of lives could be at stake here.

[Houstonia]

Actually...
2PM position: 19.2N, 82.1W
5PM position: 19.3N, 82.5W .1 degree north, .4 degree west

ANd now at 19.5 82.7. ONly 2 hours I know but isn't that also only 12 to 14 miles. 6 or 7 miles an hour?

Wait a minute - where are you getting those latest coordinates? Is there someplace that they post them before 8:00 edt?

[NateFLA]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... TNT34.KNHC

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

This is the same sort of damage that can be expected if Ivan were to hit an area such as the Mississippi gulf coast.

Coastal, worse. the surge would be allowed to build up and penetrate a much greater distance. the surge likely went 'around' grand cayman to some degree. still a horrible storm

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 12, 2004 4:33 p.m.

Ivan will move through the Yucatan channel tomorrow and its projected path by accuweather.come takes a major hurricane perhaps as strong as cat 4 and in a worst case, cat 5, into the gulf coast between the mouth of the Mississippi and Pensacola later Wednesday and Wednesday night. The options of a more eastward path are lessening, and increasing danger appears to be further west with each moment. The large area of disturbed weather east of the windward islands will develop slowly on its way northwest the next couple of days, and may be a post Ivan threat in 7-10 days for the eastern sea-board

[Stormsfury]

Basically, a long discussion, a lot of images, and links ...

Ivan definitely not clear-cut in its intentions as of yet ... with potential short-term ramifications that changes to the long-term scenarios ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

SF

[Guest]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44379 this thread says....NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 9 10 So as of now it's 10% on sept. 15. As for the strength who knows.

[Houstonia]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT34.KNHC

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

just hit reload and got them... thankee!

[canegrl04]

Still 150mph.

[Brent]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44371

[yoda]

Good post and good info SF! Thanks!

[huricanwatcher]

well New Orleans...... its coming at ya according to MSNBC news.......

prayers are with you

[calidoug]

Outer eyewall is contracting, and the inner eyewall has contracted to the point of almost being filled at 2345Z, and will likely collapse soon, and clear out a larger eye, as the outer wall takes over.

[TSmith274]

Yeah, sorry to all of you for the continued focus on New Orleans on this board. We in New Orleans are terrorized all year long with local media and public service announcements telling us how vulnerable we are here. People are getting nervous here. So, don't be suprised if you see a lot of new people on here asking questions about a N.O. landfall. Thanks for all of your opinions by the way.

[Viper54r]

well New Orleans...... its coming at ya according to MSNBC news.......

prayers are with you

Link to this information please...

[Saitex]

The FSU Super Ensemble apparently has a hit now at Biloxi, Mississippi, and it has been trending west.

Why has the NHC been so stubborn with their far east outlier forecast when all the guidance shows further west? New Orleans will need plenty of time to evacuate. Literally tens of thousands of lives could be at stake here.

Don't look at the nogaps
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Anyway, I don't think it's as likely as some may.

[huricanwatcher]

hey least we paying attention..... gezzzzz.. been there, through one..... dont wish it on anybody..

lighten up

[MGC]

The threat of a New Orleans area landfall increases by the hour as Ivan continues to track WNW. If Ivan is still on a WNW track Monday morning then it will start to hit the fan......MGC

[skysummit]

I just came back from my parents home in Lockport, La. (about 50 miles south of N.O.) I have to say, people are beginning to get extremely nervous down there and they have the right to. If a CAT 4 or 5 would hit SE La., the coastline would then begin around the NOLA area, and not along Terrebonne, Lafourche, Jefferson, and Plaquemine Parishes.