Ivan Advisories

[warlock_xp]

sry wrong maps

[btsgmdad]

That ties Allen and Isabel for attaining Cat 5 THREE times!

[B-Bear]

Don't mess with Tinkerbell.

[Brent]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 19.7N 83.2W 140 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 20.8N 84.1W 140 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 22.3N 85.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 23.9N 85.9W 135 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 25.8N 86.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W 115 KT-DUE SOUTH OF DESTIN, FLORIDA(130-135 mph winds)
96HR VT 17/0000Z 34.0N 84.5W 45 KT...INLAND NEAR ATLANTA, GEORGIA
120HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 20 KT...INLAND

[dennis1x1]

if what he said about the models were true i guess id agree with him...but its not...the nhc track is tightly clustered around both the ukmet and gfdl...the 2 most respected tropical models that are used. ONE run of the NOGAPS has shifted to new orleans.....until the other 2 show a shift...or at least multiple runs of the NOGAPS keeps the shift..it would be irresponsible to move the NHC track much from where it is...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[ACM]

as far as i know there are no mountains in western cuba.

just looked it up...there is the Guaniguanico Mountain Range in Western Cuba, don't know how high

[Guest]

Look at the Sat. looks like Ivan is quite a large system now. Certainly he is very heavy carrying lots of rain. Now on his northern passage will he dump on Fl.. . We dont need another drop.

[hla97]

Word of advice, Been calling hotels for about 4 hours in Baton rouge and Denham Springs.... They are all booked up!!

[chakalakasp]

There was a post in the radio thread last night asking whether or not the storm would miss the Caymans, as the staff at the radio station was just catching on that something bad might be on it's way and was wondering if they'd be spared. They'd been running music all night with little in the way of news (!!!) and had seemed to have little idea what was going on, with normal staff shifts (and a DJ who thought that he'd be back on at the same time the next day) and nobody planning on going anywhere, even though the winds had reached troipical storm force and power lines were starting to go down across the island. I sent them this email:

-----

Someone else who's been emailing you is a member of an internet
weather forecasting board that I post on. The person was asking for
more information, as apparently your station was trying to follow the
storm a little more closely and was wondering about your chances of
not being hit. I should preface this with the fact that I am *not* a
meteorologist, I'm merely passing along information to you compiled
from various reliable official U.S. meteorological sources. Always
rely solely on the official information provided to you by your
government, unless you have your own meteorologist on staff. I
provide the below info just to give you an idea of what may be in
store.

The advisories that you've been posting have more or less been word
for word mirroring what the U.S.'s National Hurricane Center has been
releasing.

Hurricane Ivan's progress can be seen animated at the following link:

[sat loop deleted beacause link length was mangling browser window width in forums]

In this link, you can clearly see Grand Cayman in relation to the storm.

The current belief at the NHS is that the storm should pass either
very near or directly over Grand Cayman. The most prudent thing to do
is to plan for the worst, which appears rather likely at this point.
As the U.S. NHS puts it at 11PM:

"Hurricane IVAN

THE HURRICANE HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING AND THE LAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVATION...BY DROPSONDE FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS...WAS 910 MB. IVAN RANKS SIXTH FOR LOWEST ATLANTIC BASIN
CENTRAL PRESSURE BEHIND CAMILLE IN 1969 AND MITCH IN 1998 AT 905 MB
EACH...ALLEN IN 1980 AT 899 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE AT 892
MB...AND GILBERT IN 1988 AT 888 MB. BOTH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SKILL
IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGES FOR SUCH EXTREME TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IT SUFFICES TO SAY THAT IVAN IS LIKELY TO HAVE A DEVASTATING IMPACT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA...

Expected forecast positions:

INITIAL 12/0300Z 18.3N 80.0W 145 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 81.0W 145 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 20.3N 82.4W 145 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 21.6N 83.7W 145 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 23.3N 84.5W 130 KT"

So, this is the sixth most powerful Atlantic hurricane in recorded
history, it is very near you, it is headed for you, and it may
actually strengthen a bit more before it hits you. Whoever is working
the night shift should expect to not leave the station until Monday or
maybe Tuesday. With wind gusts to 200 mph, if the storm impacts
directly, travel will be literally impossible, with automobiles being
lifted into the air by the wind and thrown considerable distances.
Once the brunt of the storm has passed, going outside will be
extremely dangerous. You will likely not be able to find your way
around, as typical buildings that you use as landmarks will be gone or
destroyed beyond recognition, and there will be debris and dangerous
downed live power lines just about everywhere. I live in the
midwestern United States and spend some time each summer chasing
tornadoes, and it never ceases to amaze me the catastrophic damage
that occurs once windspeed approaches the 200mph mark. I hope for
your sake that the studio you are broadcasting from is a well
constructed building away from shore. From what I've read, the
building codes in the Caymans are very strict and good, so hopefully
the loss of life and property won't be catastrophic.

I'm really praying for you guys. I'm not sure if I'd have the courage
to do what you're doing, staying on air during this (I'd be in a
concrete bunker or have purchased a ticket at any cost to another
country), but you're to be commended for your bravery in coming in to
keep the public aware of what's going on. Unless this storm does
something miraculous, as it did with Jamaica (which still experienced
heavy, but relatively light damage), you guys are in for a
catastrophic hurricane.

Good luck! You'll be in our thoughts and prayers tonight!

------
I really hope those guys are alright -- they (except for one female DJ who decided to "stick it out as long as possible") took off a couple hours later, when winds were gusting to hurricane force and the government was giving warnings to not go outside for any reason. If anyone hears how they fared (their stream died during the storm and it's not back yet,) do tell.

[hesperhys]

...by the time Ivan makes landfall,he will have made millions of people along the Gulf coast evacuate

Unfortunately, this is probably true. But which is the better scheme for maximizing public safety: "Better safe than sorry (evacuate if a major storm seriously threatens)" OR "Don't risk upsetting folks with evacuations for storms that might not even hit"...

Note that the answer to the question "which is more politically expedient?" is not necessarily the same as the best answer for maximizing public safety...

[Anonymous]

This is the ugliest Cat 5 system I have ever seen. When it gets its act together we may not want to get a vortex.

[dixiebreeze]

BTT

[Stormcenter]

I've NEVER seen this before.
The probabilities of Ivan making landfall are
identical from Panama City, FL to New Orleans, LA at 13%.
But the interesting thing is that Buras, LA is the leader at 14%,hmmmm.
That pretty much tells you they still DON"T know where Ivan is going.
Now that is scary.

[dennis1x1]

i agree bump....amazing storm......noone would guess a cat 5 storm with that sat pic, both in IR and WV....


i see shear has crept back into the nhc discussion...also interesting that they are touching on a subject brought up here concerning Ivan making his own environment......not so much in steering but possibly in winning out over the shear.

[Anonymous]

Only because Buras is closer to Ivan, than both of the other two cities, by about 60 miles. That is the reason.

[calidoug]

IR and WV look fine. Nice cold dougnut of strong convection. Don't be misled by small irregularities in the shape of the outflow, especially during the end of an EWRC.

[dennis1x1]

amazing to think that even how bad it was (is), how much worse it COULD have been....same with jamaica.

[HardCard]

On the contrary.. Fox 8 DID say Grand Isle wil likely start evacs TOMORROW.

[Ivanova]

What are those black areas in the hurricane ??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[nashrobbers]

What I think I've heard the experts say is that "Worst case" depends on what side of the river you're on. A Cat 3 (or higher) approaching the city form the southeast between the mouth of the river and Slidell would be catestrophic for the east bank (New Orleans, Metairie, Kenner, etc) as water piles up in Lake Pontchartrain and tops the levees along the lakefront. On the other hand, a Cat 3 (or higher), particularly a slow moving one, approaching the city from the south or southwest, could be devasting for the Westbank due to tidal surge from the Gulf and Lake Salvador. While its still early, it doesn't appear that Ivan could achieve the trajectory that would create the "worst case scenario" for the Eastbank. Westbank beware.