Frances Advisories

[lilbump3000]

I just say the gulf and east coast watch out. Because depending on how strong this high is this system can get in the gulf.

[AtlanticWind]

I was going by a 8pm position fix on the monterrey sat. It could be a wobble but it might be moving slightly more west than earlier today.

[dixiebreeze]

Frances is now at 13.8 N 46.8 W

[WXBUFFJIM]

I remember Hugo hitting Puerto Rico very hard. I'm not saying that could happen with Frances, but I don't think Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Lesser Antillies are off the hook what so ever as any deviation to the left of the track could take the center right near them. Even at the current track, outer rain bands would be possible over the northern Lesser Antillies with higher swells. The latest shift from 290 to 280 degrees is definitely troublesome for the northern islands if this continues to stay on that course. Eventually the east coast could be in possible trouble much later in the forecast.

Jim

[Brent]

Yes, and probably tomorrow sometime.

[bahamaswx]

Scary scenario.

[cape_escape]

I don't know very much about all of this stuff. But, from what I can pick up...I'm not liking it very much at all!

[Derecho]

I think you're reading a bit too much into the discussion.

Overall people are really getting ahead of themselves quite a bit.

Even if this made a BEELINE for Florida it would take about 10 days to hit.

Sort of the same thing happened with Isabel..the hype reached a fever pitch, and then people realized it was still 6 days from hitting anything.

[Brent]

I don't know very much about all of this stuff. But, from what I can pick up...I'm not liking it very much at all!

The 5-day position he has puts the system east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeast Bahamas moving WNW.

[Derek Ortt]

it's still not panick time for the U.S. East Coast. Still just a monitoring phase. When I get some new model data from the 0Z runs, thenwe'll know a lot more in the morning, although I may not be doing the forecast for Frances tomorrow morning, I may end up with Georgette duties

[lilbump3000]

And his track can most likely be close to were the strom is going to track. Like i keep sayin it depends on how strong the high is.

[canegrl04]

Cat 4 with a potential to become cat 5,since around that area,the warm waters can intensify a hurricane pretty fast.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Georgette looks to become a hurricane as well, but moving away from land most likely. The tropics have been hopping these days.

jim

[cycloneye]

Derek that is too close for comfort for the northern islands.

[Deenac813]

I'm thinking Frances has the potential to become Andrew's big bad older brother. Think Another Hugo, Gilbert, Isabel or Floyd.

Just imagine a Cat 5 Hurricane with 165+ mph sustained winds around a 45 mile wide eye barreling into South Florida.

It could make Hurricane Andrew look like a summer thunderstorm.

Oh my goodness! bite your tongue. That would be horrible! and not just because I live here.

[Yankeegirl]

D'OH!

[Derek Ortt]

I would have broguht this over the islands had it not have meant a 4 degree southward shift from the previous forecast

[Deenac813]

I think yes for sure and sooner rather than later!

[canegrl04]

I will go on record as sayng Frances will be even badder than Charley- a cat 5.

[cape_escape]

I don't know very much about all of this stuff. But, from what I can pick up...I'm not liking it very much at all!

The 5-day position he has puts the system east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeast Bahamas moving WNW.

Our local forecaster her e said last night that a hurricane in the Gulf could spell real trouble because the water is even hotter than it was when Charley came thru...