Ivan Advisories

[jagesq]

Well, the fact of that matter is this....Never in the history of hurricane research has a storm entered the gulf, and then not made landfall. In addition, though this may not be tru, it seems to me that the largest difficulty in forecasting hurricanes occurs when they are in the gulf. Everybody from SW Florida to Brownsville Texas should probably watch this thing. The craziest thing that scares me is how quickly it has shifted. Ive been outta town unable to track this, and when I left, it was going to make landfall somewhere in the keys and then track up the Peninsula. This was maybe Thurdsay? Unbelievable, I am way way outta the cone in Jupiter Florida, but I am really beginning to worry about the Gulf, especially New Orleans and East. Could this possibly be Camille's Russian brother?

[PurdueWx80]

Still going in near 92 W (Southwest Louisiana).

[Sanibel]

A category 5 with a clouded eye? Does this mean it is still getting its business together? Does it mean it will not blow its stack and fade, but instead brew at this category 4-5 phasing level for longer?

Something hints to me it is now at its strongest...

[Taffy]

THE BLACK SPOTS MEANS IT NEEDS A BLANKET. it IS TO COLD

[STORMSURGE]

Yep, once they Enter the gulf, they either hit something(usually BIGtime) OR die. and I dont foresee Ivans name in the obituaries any time soon

[hesperhys]

"Here's another for 'ya. AMERICAN PIE ....drove my chevy to the levee.....Back to top"

The problem with that song is that the levee was DRY...

[k3839]

I notice that the strike possibilities list Pensacola, Mobile and New Orleans at 13%. My gut feeling has always been New Orleans. It would be a cat 5 would destroy the city.

[chrisnnavarre]

Yeah, well it sure looks like he's targeting me here in Navarre right now. The plot gets grimmer by the hour. If things get anymore stressful I'm going to have to take to the bottle or the herbal tea. My stomach is in knots right now.

[FritzPaul]

It's 13% all over the northern gulf coast from NO to Apa. This only means there is a lot of uncertainty.

[donsutherland1]

In what has been an almost annoyingly regular occurrence, Hurricane Ivan continued to track somewhat farther to the south than what I had anticipated.

Earlier, I thought that he would reach 82.5W at 20.0N latitude. Instead, he passed reached 19.3N 82.5W earlier this evening.

With Ivan maintaining a west-northwest track and the computer guidance having continued a westward shift, my general idea of a Panhandle remains intact. In fact, my confidence has grown that Ivan will make landfall around Pensacola, Florida give or take 50 miles (approximately the vicinity of the locations shown on the UKMET and GFDL).

At this time, I remain concerned about Ivan's possibly taking a track close to that of Camille following his passage near or across extreme western Cuba. The latest run of the NOGAPS Model suggests that such a concern might not be far-fetched. Moreover, with every westward shift in my ideas, I am more wary of the Camille track as ultimately proving to be the track Ivan takes. For now, I'll hold off on that, but the next 24 hours should be revealing.

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=315575

Therefore, residents from New Orleans to Mobile should also pay careful attention to the Category 5 monster that continues to prowl the Carribbean.

My expected track is as follows:

22.5N 85.2W
25.0N 86.4W
27.5N 86.6W
30.0N 86.6W
31.0N 86.3W

As noted yesterday, Ivan's trajectory immediately prior to landfall could be an important clue as to whether or not he will make landfall as a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane.

Of all the 18 Category 4 or stronger hurricanes that have made landfall in the United States, just one had an easterly component to its track immediately ahead of landfall. Moreover, none of the great hurricanes that have made landfall on the northern Gulf Coast have had any easterly component to their track immediately prior to landfall.

If one is looking for historical milestones that could be shattered depending on Ivan's landfall and strength at landfall, a number follow:

• The United States has never seen two major hurricanes make landfall in a single season when the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) averaged positive during the hurricane season (which is all but certain in 2004).

• No state has seen the landfall of two Category 4 hurricanes in the same season. Florida did see the landfall of two Category 3 hurricanes (Easy and King) in 1950.

• In seasons in which two or more major hurricanes made landfall in the United States, none of those hurricanes was a Category 5 hurricane.

Finally, as Hurricane Camille was mentioned earlier, here are some excerpts as the storm was heading through the Gulf of Mexico:

Hurricane Camille, the second most dangerous hurricane of the century, came out of a day-long stall in the Gulf of Mexico... and headed its 160-mile-an-hour winds at the Florida panhandle and its resort areas.

The storm, called "extremely dangerous" by the Weather Bureau, is moving at a forward speed of 12 miles an hour toward the north northwest.

A hurricane hunter plane flew into the "tight little hurricane" and reported a barometric pressure of 26.81 at the center of its 10-mile -wide eye, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.
Source: "Hurricane Winds Grow to 150 M.P.H.," The New York Times, August 17, 1969.

[HurryKane]

Other levee songs:

Bob Dylan, Down in the Flood: http://bobdylan.com/songs/flood.html

Natalie Merchant, Build a Levee: http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/nataliem ... levee.html

(shaddup. It's this or toss and turn in the bed all night.)

[Ixolib]

"Here's another for 'ya. AMERICAN PIE ....drove my chevy to the levee.....Back to top"

The problem with that song is that the levee was DRY...

Oh yeah, you're right. "But they were singing bye bye......"

[Stormcenter]

I have a feeling by the time Ivan makes landfall,he will have made millions of people along the Gulf coast evacuate

I agree with you. I'm looking at a Mobile to Panama City landfall.
I really hope he weakens considerably before making landfall.

[sitcommom]

It was Clif

[Anonymous]

All I can say is that if it should become evident that Ivan will make a New Orleans landfall, with New Orleans getting the Right Front Quadrant of the strong Category 5 hurricane, I fervently hope that they will be able to get everyone out of there in time. Not only is New Orleans very, very, very low in elevation, much of New Orleans is BELOW SEA LEVEL!!!

Get out now, while you still can. If Ivan slams into New Orleans than it will be a horrific catastrophe of epic, even biblical-like proportions!!!

[Possum Trot]

On the 1100 NHC forecast map, the East edge of the cone is just North of Tampa, FL which has a 10% chance of the eye passing within 65 Nautical Miles, and the West edge is near New Iberia, LA which also has a 10% chance. Is it standard for the forcast map cone to include all points with 10% and greater chances, or did it just happen that way this time.

[vbhoutex]

As usual Don a very easily understandable discussion that explains a lot!!. I do have one problem with it though!!! You bring Ivan in right over my mothers house!!!!

[FritzPaul]

"Hurricane Camille, the second most dangerous hurricane of the century, came out of a day-long stall in the Gulf of Mexico... and headed its 160-mile-an-hour winds at the Florida panhandle and its resort areas. "

I don't like that quote (de ja vu ????).

[FritzPaul]

we'll all have to stand on Monkey Hill, which is the highest point in NO. LOL

[LSUChamps0002]

Biblical proportions? Im from New Orleans. I dont like locusts. Plague is scary too. Let's not lose our minds. It will be awful, but maybe not biblical. I'll just move to Houston for a year or so.