Ivan Advisories

[Ixolib]

BUMP - Anyone heard anymore details on the FSU model?

[washington]

I am on campus waiting for it to come out again.

[Hurrilurker]

It must have just happened that way since the cone is a fixed size, which seems to me not a very realistic way of measuring strike probabilities since clearly you sometimes have very certain vs. very uncertain synoptic features, as well as tightly clustered vs. widespread models which are used in the forecast track. The "cone" should be allowed to have a variable width IMO, but currently doesn't.

[karenfromheaven]

I live in Lynn Haven. We moved my sailboat out of the marina today and anchored her out in West Bay. I hate to leave her out there alone, but I'm too inexperienced to have singlehanded her west to Texas 3 days ago like I should have. We're putting up some plywood tomorrow, and then my spouse wants me to pack up the kitties and head over to Gainseville to stay with my sister and her husband. I've been pretty anxious for the last few days, and we've done they best we know how. My spouse works for the Dept of Corrections in Wewahitchka, where they have steel and concrete buildings, generators, water, etc. I hope to have a boat and a home to return to. Karen

[MSRobi911]

Agua her 10:00 was way way more serious than her 6:00pm I was amazed at the 6:00

[chakalakasp]

528
URNT12 KNHC 130318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0318Z
B. 19 DEG 41 MIN N
83 DEG 10 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2381 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 235 DEG 140 KT
G. 151 DEG 17 NM
H. 919 MB
I. 11 C/ 3116 M
J. 19 C/ 3110 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C32
N. 12345/7
O. 0.5/3 NM
P. AF977 2709A IVAN OB 18
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 2339Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 154/9NM
FROM FL CNTR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALL QUADS INSIDE EYE. EYE
APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.

;

[LaBreeze]

What on earth could possibly cause this track to make sense? I'm not believing it.

[Anonymous]

Biblical proportions? Im from New Orleans. I dont like locusts. Plague is scary too. Let's not lose our minds. It will be awful, but maybe not biblical. I'll just move to Houston for a year or so.

Alright, I went a bit too far, Champs. It wouldn't be as bad as 'biblical proportions.

However, if that hurricane made landfall at New Orleans and it's max sustained winds were 165 mph, and when you take into account the storm surge with such a storm plus 30-foot waves on top of that surge, and the fact that parts of New Orleans are below sea level, it would be a horrific catastrophe, especially if Ivan were to stall or slow down over New Orleans.

It's time to at least move to higher ground, if not getting out of New Orleans. By the time the National Hurricane Center realizes that Ivan is definitely headed for New Orleans, it will be too late: Everyone will be trying to leave New Orleans at the same time. Talk about bottlenecks and road rage, with a monster Category 5 hurricane roaring in over highways turned into massive parking lots.

[Ixolib]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm9+shtml/130253.shtml?

I'm also kinda wondering why the 3- and 5-day forecast tracks from NHC don't seem to be in sync with their Strike Probabiities map? I mean the "cones" there don't agree with each other - either in direction or otherwise?????

[donsutherland1]

FritzPaul,

Camille was actually moving slowly. It didn't stall even as news accounts said that it had:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[Possum Trot]

Thanks. I notice the the probabilities include Miami with 4% and Port O'Connor TX with 2%. That seems more like the actual cone to me with Ivan defying forecasts.

[calidoug]

Lightning probably correlates with eye drying out.

[donsutherland1]

David,

I very much hope that Ivan will somehow avoid a U.S. landfall or weaken sufficiently before then to minimize the risk of harm. Hopefully, everything will turn out ok for your mother and all who might be impacted.

[Ixolib]

Lightning probably correlates with eye drying out.

Will that impact its intensity?

[FritzPaul]

I got this from WWL's forum:

** Everyone from Louisiana to Florida Should Closely Monitor the Progress of Ivan

** Highest Strike Chances Over FL Panhandle (12% Chance of Landfall) But Ours Not Much Lower (10%)

** Model Trends Overall Continue West.

**Uncertainty Remains High on Landfall Area

Current Analysis:

The past few hours, we have seen a bit of a wobble to the north, but the last few frames tell me it was just that - a wobble. It looks like it's more west the past few frames. Overall movement is still to the WNW. Remember, to look at short term tracks of the eye will drive you nuts - trust me. Hurricanes don't move in straight lines. Look at long term tracks to get the overall motion.

The hurricane continues to be a powerhouse monster tonight. Still being reported as a category 4 storm, but it certainly could strengthen again. Right now, it appears to be holding steady. The strengthening and weakening of these storms is controlled by the eyewall breaking down and redeveloping. Sort of a yo-yo effect so to speak.

Water vapor images clearly show the little mini-trough dropping down over the northern Gulf coast and indications are the upper ridge (high) around New Orleans is breaking down. This is helping to build the high over FL proper.

Track:

Well, I am confused about NHC's 4pm track. It is still to the east of most of the available model guidance. Maybe they are seeing something I am not? Heck, most of those guys have Ph.D's and just have a B.S. so maybe that's why. It seems as though they just don’t want to commit to a track further west. Anyway, Ivan continues on track tonight, if not a little EAST of track.

Most models remain clustered on the central and western FL panhandle at this point, most to the west of NHC's track. There are a couple of models close to NHC's track, including the GFS and the UKMET. We do have some models further west. The Canadian model takes Ivan toward Houston. This model has been the furthest west of any model. It seems to keep Ivan on the present track and doesn't stop until Texas. This is a trend further west than what it had been doing, which was brining it right at us. I find this solution to the track very interesting. Speaking of us, the Navy NOGAPS model and the European model point to a SE LA landfall. These are the only two models to do so. I still have an unconfirmed report the super-secret FSU Super Ensemble model is brining Ivan in close to Biloxi.
What we watch for next is "THE TURN". It's when this turn happens that will determine the threat to SE LA. We want it to happen sooner, rather than later. This turn will be determined by how much the weak trough over LA erodes the ridge of high pressure Ivan is tracking along. Most models are showing this turn to begin soon, and thus a track to our east. A few say it will begin later, thus a track more toward us. And of course the Canadian says not much of a turn at all - an idea I am not ready to throw out just yet. Put it this way: a track over the western tip of Cuba - good. A track any further west than that - bad.

Keep in mind, most models have been too far to the right with the track of Ivan. I don't see any reason why this will not continue, so I am still leaning to the left of the model consensus. This would mean the storm could come very close to our area, perhaps from Biloxi to Mobile. But anyone who tells you exactly where this storm is headed is just making a wild guess. There is no way to know. The level of uncertainty remains very high with this storm in the later time periods because the steering currents that move Ivan along become very weak. The turn tonight or tomorrow will be critical. Let's hope this storm continues just to the right of the NHC track as it is trying to do tonight.

Tonight and tomorrow we watch to see when that turn begins, if it does even begin at all. Due to the level of uncertainty here, I urge everyone in SE LA to closely monitor the progress of this storm and to have a plan of action in place in case we are threatened. Of course, let's hope we are not.

I'll have a complete update tonight on Nightwatch and will have more information right here on this forum after midnight, as new model data becomes available.

John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[LaBreeze]

That's bigger than a cone!

[RonStallcup]

Forecasted landfall: 30.0N 85.7W

Pensacola Regional Airport is at 30.5N, 87.2W

I am at 30.4N 87.8W (estimate)

It's going to be a long week....

[Possum Trot]

Ixolib - I think I see your point. The highest probability is 14% at Buras LA. It would seem reasonable to expect the center of the cone to pass through the point of highest probability.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The old eyewall appears to move out the way real quick and get wrapped up real quick as a new one takes it place... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[donsutherland1]

RonStallcup,

That landfall was last night's idea. Tonight's, unfortunately, is closer to you:

30.0N 86.6W