Ivan Advisories

[Ixolib]

Yes PT... It's like they are quite willing to update the graphics for strike probability, but are waiting on an act of congress to update (adjust??) the forcast track. Hmmmmm......

[LSUChamps0002]

I made hotel reservations this evening in Batesville, MS. Believe its about 350 miles north of here, new orleans. Everything below is already booked, even in Jackson.

Its just in case, but if this does move west of cuba, the rest of the rooms anywhere within reach will get booked. I seriously doubt most from here have made reservations, so they will go fast.

Im still betting I wont need em, but better safe than sorry.

[Ixolib]

The old eyewall appears to move out the way real quick and get wrapped up real quick as a new one takes it place... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Any viewpoint on the consequences?

[Ixolib]

I made hotel reservations this evening in Batesville, MS. Believe its about 350 miles north of here, new orleans. Everything below is already booked, even in Jackson.

Its just in case, but if this does move west of cuba, the rest of the rooms anywhere within reach will get booked. I seriously doubt most from here have made reservations, so they will go fast.

Im still betting I wont need em, but better safe than sorry.

I made reservations last night in Brookhaven. Checked again tonight and NOTHING was available!!

[SwampDawg]

At this point, i would believe anything. There is not a model to my knowlege that has nailed this storm thus far.

[Miller]

Someone asked for this information a day or two ago.
Oil and Gas Leases in GOM

[chakalakasp]

Lightning shouldn't matter to intensity. What that means is that the eyewall replacement cycle is in it's completion stage, and the storm should now either maintain strength or strengthen up some more.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The old eyewall appears to move out the way real quick and get wrapped up real quick as a new one takes it place... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Any viewpoint on the consequences?

It will strengthen even more after the replacement is complete, IMO...and then it will weaken, somewhat, when this process reoccurs--just a part of the interesting lifetime of this water-based phenomena....

[Sean in New Orleans]

This is because of the eyewall replacement...

[btsgmdad]

I would think the oil company either already have or will soon evacuate the platforms in the Gulf.

[Ixolib]

The old eyewall appears to move out the way real quick and get wrapped up real quick as a new one takes it place... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Any viewpoint on the consequences?

It will strengthen even more after the replacement is complete, IMO...and then it will weaken, somewhat, when this process reoccurs--just a part of the interesting lifetime of this water-based phenomena....

Interesting is the word!! Still can't believe how much I've learned in the past few weeks - and I've lived with hurricanes all my life. Goes to show how much we don't even how much we never knew. Thanks...

[Ivanova]

According to a recent Bloomberg article,
most of the GOM oil facilities are off the
coasts of Texas and Louisiana.




Crude Oil Rises on Concern Hurricane Ivan May Cut U.S. Output


Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rose as much as 1.9 percent in New York on concern Hurricane Ivan may disrupt output in the Gulf of Mexico, source of one fourth of U.S. oil.

Royal Dutch/Shell Group, BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Kerr- McGee Corp. yesterday began removing non-essential staff from platforms in the eastern Gulf. Ivan, with 150 mile-per-hour winds, moved toward western Cuba on a course that may take it to northwest Florida by early Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

``If it was to wander off west toward Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, we could run into real problems,'' said Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures Inc. in Huntington Beach, California.


****

Ivan has been blamed for at least 56 deaths in the Caribbean, including 34 in Grenada. At least 11 people were killed in Jamaica, which avoided a direct hit from Ivan Saturday, the Associated Press reported.

Cuba Next

The center of the hurricane was about 210 miles (340 kilometers) southeast of the western tip of Cuba, according to the center. Most of the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are in the western half, off the Louisiana and Texas coasts, about 700 miles northwest of western Cuba.

Heavy rain, ``possibly causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,'' is expected along Ivan's path, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 8 p.m. New York time. The hurricane's center is expected to pass near or over western Cuba Monday.

``There remains considerable uncertainty as to just when and where and at what intensity Ivan will make landfall in the U.S.,'' the center said."


Go to URL for entire article

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... world_news


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[Possum Trot]

That's bigger than a cone!

Your right. Wait a sec, I'm thinking that technically a cone is a three dimensional object. Without the round part the forecast area on the map is actually a polygon. I think a two dinemsion ice cream cone shape has its own name, but I don't remember what it is. I guess I'm off on a tangent.

[frankthetank]

watch the prices of oil/gas go up this week...its almost a guarantee...i believe theres quite a few RIGS out in the gulf...

[washington]

Well the lastest model run takes it to Ft. Walton beach, but i talk to one of the people they feel like its going to keep shifting westward. I asked if he felt like it will shift to LA he said its going to be a long week, and he said that you guys should be worried.

[FritzPaul]

Buras is higher only because it is relatively closer to the storm.

The cone is not fixed and is based on strike prob.'s.
That is why the cone is wider this evening (note the SP's the same from NO to Apa).

[Stormcenter]

That is too close for comfort.
I was under impression Texas had nothing to worry about now
I'm starting to wonder.

[CajunMama]

usually they evacuate when the storm enters the gulf

[Sean in New Orleans]

This system should encompass almost the entire Gulf of Mexico when it gets there!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Lindaloo]

We have them off the coast of MS as well.