Charley Advisories

[NorthGaWeather]

The outflow and convection is expanding in size. It just looks like its further north. NW motion continues

[Aquawind]

Pretty good chance of some windy rainbands at least..Probably not much of a Storm Surge or Erosion issue for the east coast..

[bahamaswx]

Convection certainly is expanding. CDO diameter is ~210miles, compared to roughly 170-180 earlier tonight.

[Anonymous]

Any chance this will be a threat to Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, then fish?

[LaBreeze]

I thought the latest on Charley was that he was moving WNW at 25 mph, not NW.

[bahamaswx]

I'm anticipating a direct hit on the Florida Keys (cays?), so the margin of error would always include the extreme northwestern Bahamas--Andros, Grand Bahama--but I doubt it. No threat to the Bahamas really.

I'm currently located on an island in the central Bahamas anyway; I'll see nothing from Charley. =(

[NorthGaWeather]

It is WNW at 25 MPH. Charley is not gonna be a fish.

[Aquawind]

Is that showing mid 70s temps over the Gulf? If so then its not right.

Yeah something is not right about that graphic..other than the date..lol

[wayoutfront]

no kidding... the buoys are showing 80 in the gulf


south of DR and Cuba the this closely resembles last weeks SST's on the Navy site

gotta be a glitchh somewhere

[bahamaswx]

Not that big really.

[USAwx1]

Furthermore, IF the 0z WED GFS is correct WRT the position of the longwave trough---its not impossible that remnants of Charley become quite a rainmaker for the EC.



by 12z SAT the GFS has Charley over NW SC/SE NC riding NNE in the SW flow in the Mid levels---Downstream of the trough axis centered over the GL region.



0z SUN over the delmarva:





06z SUN:





SLP/1000-500 Thk/6hr precip:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... lp_84s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... lp_90s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... lp_96s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102s.gif

60hr precip total for the period ending 06z SUN

[USAwx1]

BTW, that is a HORRIBLY amplified longwave pattern for this time of year.

[tailgater]

Looking at sat. pics early tis morn Charley's blob is wobbling a good bit to the west let's see if this continues ,also showing signs of some SW shear.

[TexasSam]

Seems I remember the time on the recon flights is the time they arive at the storm...

[Ripopgodazippa]

WTNT33 KNHC 110847
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...CHARLEY APPROACHING JAMAICA...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.

TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

[Anonymous]

Im surprised they didnt upgrade it, it looks pretty good now.

[rainstorm]

toward pensacola and then up just west of richmond as a rainmaker. even though the models now say charlie will hit west fla, i still think it will move up the coast and hit the panhandle, then, also move up just west of richmond. from richmond to the mountains, floodng could be big, helped only by fast movement of both systems

[Rainband]

That would be worse for me helen, Hope your wrong

[Guest]

That would be worse for me helen, Hope your wrong

Your hope is a guaranteed lock..sadly, rainstorm hasn't a clue.
Charley does not and will not have any effect on Bonnie, they are eons apart in distance and time.

[rainstorm]

not at all, charlie will create a push in the atmosphere moving so fast