Charley Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

WOW!!!! Not good..... There is possiblity of both storms colliding.....
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... b2ce4ff865

[Stormchaser16]

SHEESH Bonnie looks like shes AS big if not bigger then Charlie now.........

Ya never know...... ya just never know

[Matthew5]

Good discussion DT I agree!

[robag]

just wanted to let you guys know that emergency Management is getting fired up here in the Keys. I will keep everyone informed if the Keys get a direct hit. Wish us luck!

[Brent]

DT, your scaring me. A Cat 3 hurricane moving at 15-20 mph will bring me hurricane force winds. It did in 1995 with Opal. I can do without that. Mobile/Pensacola/Destin landfall with the system moving NE would take it very close to me.

[Stormchaser16]

BRAVO BRAVO........... what an EXCELLENT post.... and I cant help but agree more..... great point that a MASSIVE trough must mean a massive ridge..... which would basically center right over where Charley is headed........ kudos

[Derecho]

WOW!!!! Not good..... There is possiblity of both storms colliding.....
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... b2ce4ff865

Tropical systems don't "Collide" and you don't end up with a stronger overall system in the rare cases where there is a merger (one basically gets sucked into the other and dies in the process).

[CaptinCrunch]

If both storms joined, it would be hell for the Florida cost. I'll watch from Texas

[drudd1]

Good Luck robag, life is going to be real interesting for you shortly!

[Dan]

However, the latest GFD mdoels as well as AVNI still go with recurvature into Florida. With the trough being there, those ar elikely the models to go, although there may be some chance that this misses the trough

those two models probably don't have the new(and correct) positioning of Charley.

I think its obvious that the trough will pick up Charley, but Charley will be farther west when the turn begins, and the turn will be more gradual and not as sharp as the models indicated yesterday. That makes all the difference in the world between a Tampa Bay landfall and a Panama City Beach landfall.

[The Dark Knight]

Very good post... You hit all of the rough spots....

[Dean4Storms]

Good post DT and you make a good point about Charley's speed and size trying to make a turn. We'll see if the models keep coming back west. But still, everyone from the Keys to Mobile should stay up to date as I'm sure you will agree.

[CaptinCrunch]

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
THE STORM INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
THE PROBABILITY OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 75 MILES OF KEY WEST HAS
BEEN ADDED.

...STORM INFORMATION....
AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 680 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 24 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS
999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THE
STORM...AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PROTECTIVE ACTIONS WILL BE MADE
LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE
URGED TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR ANY POSSIBLE
NOTICES FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES. AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE AND BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE AT 656 AM AND 917 PM AT KEY WEST
HARBOR...AND AT 545 AM AND 806 PM AT VACA CUT IN MARATHON. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY EVENING. AS TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY IS CURRENT FORECAST TO
PASS JUST WEST OF THE KEYS...THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORM SURGE WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN...ATLANTIC SHORES OF THE KEYS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...WINDS OVER THE KEYS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. ALONG THE REEF...AUTOMATED COASTAL STATIONS REPORT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS...NOT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
CHARLEY...MAY BRING BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THESE SPEEDS TODAY...AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS AND KEY WEST...THURSDAY EVENING.

[Stephanie]

Thank you DT for your analysis.

[The Dark Knight]

There is also a very scary scenario as well as this one.....
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... b2ce4ff865

[HeatherAKC]

Hi Robag....

I'm a property owner in Key Largo. What's the vibe there? Basically, isn't all of your news coming from the Miami media? What do the locals think? I have to start thinking about securing my property around MM98, bayside. Let me know your thoughts as you are there!

Thanks!

[BayouVenteux]

true Brent but as we all know these tracks change each recon report some more than others I would expect charleys track to change several more times. I enjoy the forums though cause the landfall HYPE has already begun!

Yep...it's always amusing to go back a couple pages and see many of the OMG! OMG!'s, (your city here)IS UNDER THE GUN, and LOOK OUT so-and-so! posts looking as dated as the Macarena in 24 hours.

Mom Nature and the tropics never cease to humble.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

[cebers01]

And it also will change Charley's strengthening ability due to more time over warmer water...

The longer he can stay over gulf waters, the better chance he has of strenthening and ability to keep a more westward component against the trough...

Curtis

[stormtrackerFDK1]

From Larry Cosgrove at Easternuswx:

1) Thou Shalt Not Model Hug!

Just because the baroclinic models do not initialize the system well does not mean it will disappear. Regarding the tropical cyclone prediction schemes: the recent turn to the right of guidance concerning Charley is meaningless. I disregard evaluations of a TS if the potential threat is more than 72 hours away.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=3520

I guess he supports DT on this one.