Ivan Advisories

[NateFLA]

I agree, I see more W movement in the eye for the last few frames, but I also see the bottom of the 'cane moving solidly on the same track... so I don't know what to think yet... ERC, wobble, or a God given turn...

[TampaFl]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 081730
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...DRY AIR ALOFT OVER N FL PENINSULA
HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEV THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS
FROM FROM BAY AREA SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE TREND TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE 10 POPS N TO 20 CENTRAL AND 30 POP
SOUTH. SW FLOW KEEPS OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THU SHEAR
VORT AXIS OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE N GULF. WHILE SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE PENINSULA TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS. SOME MODIFYING DRY AIR
REMAINS N SO EXPECT TO SEE POP TREND AGAIN ON THU WITH 40 N TO 60 S
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. BY FRI WEAK SFC RIDGE TO SHIFT TO THE N WITH
NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...HERE WE GO AGAIN? LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH IVAN BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AS USUAL ALL
ELEMENTS OF UPPER RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER
FOR US TO BE NAILED. UNFORTUNATELY...CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
IT AFFECTING FLORIDA SOMEWHERE. WILL BE ABLE TO FOCUS MORE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...SO AS WE ALWAYS SAY...STAY TUNED.

AS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...A GENERAL NE TO E FLOW AND CONTINUED
DECENT MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR SCT AFTN/EARLY EVE PCPN INTO SAT
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED SCT AFTN PCPN BUT THIS COULD BE
THE DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IVAN...SO IT COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE BREEZE.

FOR MON AND TUE...HAVE GENERALLY LEFT THE FCST TREND ALONE AND ONLY
INCREASED WIND SPEED A TAD AND VEERED THE DIRECTION A LITTLE BASED
ON LATEST TPC TRACK. NO CHANGES TO WED WITH EXPECTED SW FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM...DISCOUNTING THE GFS SHARP RECURVATURE WHICH
IMPLIES N FLOW THROUGHOUT.

&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING
FOR NO HIGHLIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND. NHC FCST BRINGS HURRICANE IVAN
INTO SE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS LATE SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 89 75 90 / 20 50 20 40
FMY 75 89 74 89 / 30 50 20 50
GIF 75 90 74 91 / 20 50 20 40
SRQ 76 88 75 89 / 20 50 20 40
BKV 75 89 72 90 / 10 40 20 40

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RD
LONG TERM....BSG

[Stormsfury]

[Steve Cosby]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like some pretty nasty shear coming up at the southwestern corner of that loop as well.

[MetroMike]

Still looks more WNW to me with perhaps a wobble here and there.

[debbiet]

Ours too saying too soon to tell for sure, but shows a projected path nearly identical to Charley.

[Josephine96]

A lot of Louisiana people here huh

[debbiet]

Ours too saying too soon to tell for sure, but shows a projected path nearly identical to Charley.

[x-y-no]

Its possible Ivan could go in the GOM untouched like JB thinks

That's certainly possible ... but I'm pretty concerned for Jamaica right now.

[c5Camille]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT24 data were found.
** WTNT34 KNHC 082034 ***
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...
INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  67.7
WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND   
685 MILES...1100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
 
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN WILL
CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.
 
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947
MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N... 67.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA


[Brent]

If it hits the Florida Peninsula, late Sunday or Monday. Remainder of the Gulf probably Late Monday or Tuesday.

[c5Camille]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 26


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 08, 2004


...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan moving across the Caribbean
Sea...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...and for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the entire southwest peninsula of
Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward...
including Port au Prince.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern coast
of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located by a
reconnaissance plane near latitude 13.4 north...longitude 67.7
west or about 95 miles...150 km...north-northeast of Bonaire and
685 miles...1100 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph ...28 km/hr. On
this track...the center of Ivan should move north of Aruba...
Bonaire...and Curacao during the next few hours and then will
continue on Route toward the area near Jamaica.

Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds of near
140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
possible during the next day or two.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 947
mb...27.96 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.4 N... 67.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 947 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.

Forecaster Avila

[c5Camille]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 26


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2004



today has been a historic day for the department of Commerce/
National oceanic atmopheric administration/National Weather
Service/National Hurricane Center. The president of the United
States visited the facilities at Miami Florida.

A reconnaissance plane just penetrated the eye of the hurricane and
reported a minimum pressure of 947 mb. Satellite images indicate
that the hurricane continues to be well-organized with a distinct
eye...surrounded completely by very deep convection. The outflow is
excellent outflow. Initial intensity remains at 120 knots. It
appears that Ivan is overcoming the shear and heading toward a more
favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment for strengthening.
After crossing Cuba...the shear is forecast to increase and the
ocean is not as warm. Therefore some weakening is possible.
However...Ivan is expected to remain a very dangerous Hurricane.

Ivan has been moving toward the west-northwest and is now moving
295 degrees at 15 knots. As indicated in the previous forecast...
during the next 24 to 48 hours...the subtropical ridge to the north
of Ivan is expected to change little...keeping Ivan on a
west-northwest track. Thereafter...the ridge is forecast to weaken
and a broad mid-level trough will likely become established over
the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should steer the hurricane on a
northwest and north-northwest track with a decrease in forward
speed. It must be re-emphasized that the forecast track beyond 72
hours continues to be highly uncertain since steering currents are
forecast to be weak and not well-defined in the forecast models.
The spread in the models continues in the latest 12z run. Some
models bring Ivan over Florida and another group move the
hurricane toward the Gulf of Mexico. There is no apparent reason to
favor one scenario over the other at this time. Therefore...the
official forecast remains near the global model consensus and
presumes that there will be enough ridging to keep the hurricane on
a northwest to north-northwest track... bringing dangerous Ivan
over western Cuba in 4 days and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
day five.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/2100z 13.4n 67.7w 120 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 14.2n 69.8w 125 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 15.5n 72.5w 120 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 17.0n 74.7w 125 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 18.5n 77.0w 130 kt over Jamaica
72hr VT 11/1800z 20.5n 80.0w 130 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 22.5n 82.0w 120 kt over western Cuba
120hr VT 13/1800z 26.0n 83.5w 115 kt

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...
INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7
WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND
685 MILES...1100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN WILL
CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947
MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N... 67.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Possum Trot]

I think I need more data points before I decide which way the thing is going...er... has gone.

[x-y-no]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like some pretty nasty shear coming up at the southwestern corner of that loop as well.

That's the same ULL which has been backing up in front of him ... unless it stops moving away, it won't do him any damage, and may just serve to ventilate him.

[rtd2]

rtd2 wrote:
Qoute"130 kt in NW quad????"

135mph surface???


Using a 90% reduction from 700mb (flight level) to SFC with intense convection ... correct ...

SF






SF...That is EXACTLY what I was using...Interesting though I seen a recent EXPERT study/article saying 90% reduction is crap and more accurate reduction would be 65-75% thoughts?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004
 
TODAY HAS BEEN A HISTORIC DAY FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/
NATIONAL OCEANIC ATMOPHERIC ADMINISTRATION/NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES VISITED THE FACILITIES AT MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE AND
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 947 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT
EYE...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. IT
APPEARS THAT IVAN IS OVERCOMING THE SHEAR AND HEADING TOWARD A MORE
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE
OCEAN IS NOT AS WARM. THEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
IVAN HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING
295 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...KEEPING IVAN ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. IT MUST BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72
HOURS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS.
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE LATEST 12Z RUN. SOME
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 13.4N  67.7W   120 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 14.2N  69.8W   125 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.5N  72.5W   120 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N  74.7W   125 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 18.5N  77.0W   130 KT OVER JAMAICA
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 20.5N  80.0W   130 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  82.0W   120 KT OVER WESTERN CUBA
120HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  83.5W   115 KT


[WaryEye]

That is absolutely the funniest thing that I have seen on these boards. LOL