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KatDaddy
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Expect Recon Plans to be Cancelled

#901 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Aug 07, 2004 9:23 am

Nothing to investigate in the W Caribbean at this point.
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#902 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 07, 2004 9:28 am

Dr. Steve Lions said that the mid-level circulation asociated to our wave is over Honduras and it should be moving westward, in any case, development will look possible in the EPAC, but not in the Atlantic.
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#903 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:17 am

ABNT20 KNHC 071507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED. DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED 625 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
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rbaker

#904 Postby rbaker » Sat Aug 07, 2004 11:21 am

thought if the shower activity hung around it had a better chance today, since ull was moving sw and a ridge was forming over what was left. But there is nothing left. Just wasn't meant to be.
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Dean4Storms
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Remnant of TD2 now looking better again.......

#905 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 07, 2004 4:03 pm

Convection deepening west of Jamaica. But, will it continue overnite?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#906 Postby lilbump3000 » Sat Aug 07, 2004 4:15 pm

Yes it is and i think we may not have seen the last of it yet.
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#907 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 07, 2004 4:46 pm

Jamaica reported surface pressures of 1011 MB's as the wave passed. The lowest pressures *were* a little further south but the shear is still strong in that region so I am not sure where the lowest pressure is now. May take a while to get reorganized but at least the shear seems to be slowly relaxing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
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WXBUFFJIM
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#908 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Aug 07, 2004 5:08 pm

I think the real question is what happens when this thing potentially reaches the Gulf Of Mexico??? Will it reach the Gulf??? Will it potentially intensify into a tropical system once again. There's definitely a few possibilities and I'm definitely not letting my guard down as far as the Gulf is concerned.

Jim
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#909 Postby The Dark Knight » Sat Aug 07, 2004 5:27 pm

We'll see......
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dixiebreeze
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Signs of life in old TD 2 tonight........

#910 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Aug 07, 2004 8:05 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Our Bonnie wannabe seems to be livening up tonight in the Caribbean and those blobs in the east don't look too shabby, either.
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#911 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 07, 2004 8:15 pm

ON Sunday maybe they will be able to initialize it and start forecasting track again. Will it be over the Yucatan into the western gulf or start to recurve through the channel?
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#912 Postby wx247 » Sat Aug 07, 2004 9:46 pm

Still quite a bit of convection this evening. We shall see what morning brings...
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MGC
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GOM Dead, look to former TD 2

#913 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:01 pm

GOM is as quiet as it gets. A couple areas of weak low pressure that don't appear to be doing much. Convection is less than organized.

Now, on to former bogus TD 2. Given up as dead just yesterday, nocturnal convection is starting to concentrate. Look for this wave to continue on a NW to WNW track into the southern GOM where things could get interesting Sunday night into Monday.....MGC
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#914 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:03 pm

:P we will see
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WXBUFFJIM
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#915 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:20 pm

If that thing moves wnw or nw and gets into the gulf with that kind of convection, you bet your bottom dollar we need to keep an eye on it. With 88-90 degree waters sitting there, that's bad news, especially if the winds upstairs are favorable.

Jim
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#916 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:29 pm

I might be wrong but tonight the shear doesn't seem to be as strong as days ago because the thunderstorms doesn't seem to be sheared.
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#917 Postby Aquawind » Sat Aug 07, 2004 10:36 pm

Nice blowup tonight..93L as well to bad it's not over a LLC..

Image
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hurricanemike
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Ex TD2 trying to come back?

#918 Postby hurricanemike » Sun Aug 08, 2004 12:21 am

Is Ex TD2 trying to make a come back?? Nice ball over convection and semi-swiral shows up nicely on IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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Stormcenter
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Re: Ex TD2 trying to come back?

#919 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Aug 08, 2004 12:40 am

hurricanemike wrote:Is Ex TD2 trying to make a come back?? Nice ball over convection and semi-swiral shows up nicely on IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html


Yes I totally agree. It will be VERY interesting to see what happens when it enters the GOM. :eek:
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dixiebreeze
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Old TD 2 looks the best in this bird's eye........

#920 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 08, 2004 12:55 am

view of the three systems:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
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