Ivan Advisories

PTrackerLA · #921 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:40 pm

Ivan is a small storm, about the size of Charley IMO. Or maybe I just used to the huge Frances?

WeatherNLU · #922 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:42 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Ivan is a small storm, about the size of Charley IMO. Or maybe I just used to the huge Frances?

Ivan is not as small as Charley but not as big as Frances. More like in between.

canegrl04 · #923 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:43 pm

"It appears Ivan has overcome the shear" :eek:

Ivan making himself invincible? :eek:

To strengthen the next couple of days :eek:

#924 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:43 pm

x-y-no wrote:PurdueWx80:

Is there any other source for vortex messages than the NHC site? One that's a little better about updating? Earlier today, they were going backwards ... :-/

This is by far the quickest...it has all the other products too. Just scroll to the very bottom of the page and the most recent vortex message will be the very last link on the page.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/

Derek Ortt · #925 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:43 pm

also a slight rightward adjustment

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

I will have track and intensity graphics very soon

x-y-no · #926 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:43 pm

AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE
OCEAN IS NOT AS WARM.

Eh? the Gulf isn't as warm? Is that really right?

Website · #927 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:45 pm

120-hour position is only about 100 miles west of Naples, Florida.

canegrl04 · #928 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:45 pm

CaneCurious · #929 Postby **CaneCurious** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:45 pm

Derek, I was just going to post asking where you were. What are your thoughts and predictions?

#930 Postby **miamiwxgal** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:47 pm

Yesterday's SST composite

x-y-no · #931 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:53 pm

48hr VT 10/1800z 18.5n 77.0w 130 kt over Jamaica

#932 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:54 pm

TJUA radar site is picking up 40 - 50 knot winds appx 60 miles SSW of the Wester tip of the island.

#933 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:55 pm

CaneCurious wrote:Derek, I was just going to post asking where you were. What are your thoughts and predictions?

Didn't he just answer this question before you asked it? I would assume the link he posted is a forecast based on his and others thoughts.

#934 Postby **USAwx1** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:55 pm

Has Ivan tracking Parallel to the FL/GA/SC coast as western Atlantic ridge weakens and slides off to the east after 96 hrs which allows Ivan to turn NW and Eventually NNW.

[/img]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004090812!!chart.gif[/img]

It still shows a landfall near 33 or 34N/80W somewhere around the NC/SC boarder. Overall the 12z Run is not much different than the 0z run.

This morning I would have been quick to dispel the ECMWF solutions from 0z and 12z however it seems that much of the data has actually been trending toward it w/ a more North and east track for Ivan. Take the 12z UKMET for example.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

And the 18z Hurricane models.

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040908 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040908 1800 040909 0600 040909 1800 040910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 67.0W 14.3N 69.7W 15.7N 72.2W 16.8N 74.3W
BAMM 13.1N 67.0W 13.9N 69.8W 15.0N 72.3W 15.8N 74.3W
A98E 13.1N 67.0W 13.9N 69.9W 14.7N 72.6W 15.2N 75.2W
LBAR 13.1N 67.0W 14.3N 69.8W 15.9N 72.7W 17.3N 75.5W
SHIP 120KTS 120KTS 122KTS 124KTS
DSHP 120KTS 120KTS 122KTS 124KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040910 1800 040911 1800 040912 1800 040913 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 75.9W 18.0N 77.8W 19.3N 78.4W 22.3N 78.2W
BAMM 16.7N 75.9W 17.7N 77.4W 19.7N 78.2W 23.1N 78.7W
A98E 15.4N 77.6W 14.9N 80.7W 12.7N 82.2W 10.0N 83.3W
LBAR 18.3N 77.8W 19.8N 80.6W 21.0N 81.7W 23.7N 81.3W
SHIP 130KTS 133KTS 131KTS 117KTS
DSHP 81KTS 88KTS 62KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 67.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 64.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 61.1W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 140NM

I do believe there is an eastward trend developing here; however I don’t think Ivan’s track will progress to the extremes at which the ECMWF has been indicating the past two runs. Right now the new UKMET and NOGAPS are basically the Middle ground between the ECMWF and GGEM extremes.

Derek Ortt · #935 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:56 pm

graphics are here

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

Cangialosi did the storm update at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004.html

#936 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:56 pm

Appears plenty warm to me...

-Eric

Possum Trot · #937 Postby **Possum Trot** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:56 pm

What exactly does this mean :?:

"INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS."

Is it the current sea level windspeed :?:

rainstorm · #938 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:57 pm

looks like a disaster. everyone is shifting right to florida

PTrackerLA · #939 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:58 pm

Starting think we'll be safe again here in Louisiana. Panhandle looks like it will get slammed.

lilyv · #940 Postby **lilyv** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:58 pm

Derek,
Thanks for the info, and all your hard work.
Have family in P'cola. , so I'll be watching this storm closely.

Ivan Advisories

special ivan forecast... now calling for a cat 5

Puerto Rico Radar Picking Up 40kt winds

12z ECMWF...not much different than 0z

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