Ivan Advisories

Derek Ortt · #961 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:06 pm

If it was a compliment, then I appologize sincerely and I am in the wrong for making that comment

#962 Postby **USAwx1** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:06 pm

ericinmia wrote:The new Euro has the eye of Ivan skirting ashore in miami-dade county... That would be horrible!

I have pretty good faith in the Euro's ability to predict ageneral area... especially after its long term predictions with Frances. The Euro has been fairly steady with the hurricane passing over the south fla area.
-Eric

the EC did a fairly good job with the track of Frances, so of course I have my concerns that it may score the coupe here.

Josephine96 · #963 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:06 pm

Me neither.. Gulf waters appear plenty warm to me..

lilbump3000 · #964 Postby **lilbump3000** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:06 pm

Is everyone in flordia ready?

x-y-no · #965 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:06 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Damn, that's a beauty... I completely agree, it looks like it is stronger than what they say. However, RECON reports haven't shown the greater increase (I think).

Yeah, it looks stronger to me, but I'll trust RECON on this one. :-)

#966 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:06 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Eric - do you have a link for that one???

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

There ya go...
-Eric

Possum Trot · #967 Postby **Possum Trot** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:07 pm

How far is that from the center of the storm? It looks like a long way for TS force winds.

Derek Ortt · #968 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:08 pm

recon has not increased because they have yet to sample the NW quad. The other quads, especially the SE quad, have increased significantly

#969 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:08 pm

I have NO idea what he is talking about with cooler waters. The waters from Tampa south are warmer than they were for Charley. The only "cool" waters are in the far NE Gulf to the right of where Frances went over. The buoys I just looked at are anywhere from 85-89 degrees between Tampa and the Keys.

Josephine96 · #970 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:08 pm

I know I'm ready..

Josephine96 · #971 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:09 pm

We could have a Category 4/5 barreling towards Central or S Fla like we did with Charley

#972 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:10 pm

Thanks - yikes!

Bane · #973 Postby **Bane** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:10 pm

Doesn't bode well for anyone in the southeast.

Derek Ortt · #974 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:11 pm

Oceanic heat content is significantly lower in the GOM than it currently is. Therefore, if the storm mvoes slowly, it may encounter some upwelling

rainstorm · #975 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:11 pm

yall sound thrilled that a cat5 will hit fla

#976 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:11 pm

ericinmia wrote:Appears plenty warm to me...
-Eric

I've been trying to find the link to that derived image - could you post it please?

Josephine96 · #977 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:11 pm

It's booking along quite nicely right now

#978 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:13 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:I have NO idea what he is talking about with cooler waters. The waters from Tampa south are warmer than they were for Charley. The only "cool" waters are in the far NE Gulf to the right of where Frances went over. The buoys I just looked at are anywhere from 85-89 degrees between Tampa and the Keys.

Here's the Navy's version of the sea temps and analysis:

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graphic.pl/metoc/40/19/0-0-5/0

If he's talking about that little area on the south side of Cuba versus the waters north of Cuba - yeah, maybe it is a little cooler (a relative term) on the north side.

Josephine96 · #979 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:14 pm

Something tells me this thing will grow into a bigger monster

Josephine96 · #980 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:14 pm

I personally think Avila dont know about sst's.. But that's as far as I'll go lol

Ivan Advisories

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