Gaston Advisories

[Hurricanehink]

Definetly. It's ashame that it went from 40 at 11 to 60-65 at 5.

[James]

Thanks for the info. Gaston is looking much more organised, with convection now covering the centre, unlike earlier.

[mb229]

Thank you Derek. I respect your work and your willingness to express your knowledge. My 84 year old mom lives lives alone at Ocean Isle Beach, NC. A few extra hours of warning will give her more time to prepare. She's healthy a horse...but moves a tad slowly!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The models are all over the place on this one (some have it going east, others south, and still another NE) :

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Any thoughts?

[seahawkjd]

Well for one thing look at the initialization times on the models. Some are at 8pm, some 8am, and the most recent was 2pm.

[Guest]

even though their at different times, those models all have very different solutions.

[Carolina_survivor]

Wow. Yes, thanks for the heads up!

[rbaker]

yes, recon found 59 kts at flight level, and given that its moving at a snails pace, with that burst of convection and radar presentation over the gulf stream, prudent to issue cane warnings.

[vacanechaser]

000
URNT11 KNHC 281927
97779 19274 70300 80300 03000 30021 24208 /0012 43015
RMK AF861 0107A GASTON OB 05

30.0n /70.3w 21kts..

[ChaserUK]

I am still quite new to all of this. What could be the potential effects of this extra storm system on the final track of Frances?

[KatDaddy]

Damn straight Derek! I was away for only AN HOUR! The last I saw an exposed LLC. Now I see an amzing explosion of convection and a perfect CDO.

[rbaker]

996mb is too high to qualify normally for a hurricane, probably will take it to 55 or 60 at 5pm

[James]

Ususally 996mb would be too high, but it does happen. Look at Danny last year, he was classified as a hurricane with a minimum pressure of 1002mb. I do agree with you though that it will probably be different in this case.

[Guest]

Except for NOGAPS which was last nights run, the models are all in good agreement of a NE track after landfall.

[Guest]

Heres more consistency

[doglegleft]

a hurricane watch / warning would be prudent... the majority of the area is unaware of the potential development. While a Cat 1 is only possible at lease the area would be prepared for a probable moderate to strong TS. TWC made no mention of the rapid intensification in their afternoon reports… -doglegleft

[Rainband]

Based upon the explosive intensification of Gaston, we need a Hurricane WARNING at 5 p.m. for the SC coast for Gaston

I'm sure the NHC will do it if it's applicable

[Derek Ortt]

I do not understand why only a watch is out and why the surface iwnds were held to 50 m.p.h.

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS GASTON STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCH
ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD
BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND GASTON
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNED AREA. DANGEROUS HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNED AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[Andrew92]

Here's the discussion....


000
WTNT42 KNHC 282029
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT GASTON IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED 59 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...WHICH WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...IS NOW COVERED BY A NEW BURST
OF CONVECTION...AND THE CHARLESTON WSR-88D SHOWS A GOOD CURVED BAND
PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KT...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/3. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAK. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE STORM...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN AFTER 24 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED IN ABOUT 36-48 HR BY
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN ACCELERATION. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
ON THE SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HR.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER GASTON AT THIS TIME...AND THE SHEAR IS
LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL...
WITH THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF 60 KT BEING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
STRONGER SHIPS AND THE WEAKER GFDL. GASTON SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GASTON
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY...AND THIS REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE TRACK OF GASTON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 31.4N 78.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 31.8N 79.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 32.7N 79.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 33.7N 79.6W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 34.9N 78.4W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1800Z 37.5N 74.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 01/1800Z 41.0N 66.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1800Z 43.0N 55.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$