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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A 43
KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM BOTH THIS AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH
FLIGHT INDICATE ODETTE IS TILTED TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 050/9. SURFACE DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM
SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS STORM SHOULD STEER ODETTE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AS THE GFS AND AND UKMET ARE FASTER
WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS
AND GUNA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
WHILE ODETTE CURRENTLY HAS OUTFLOW EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM REACHES HISPANIOLA. PASSAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CAUSE ODETTE TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION...THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS
WHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ODETTE TO CAUSE SOME GALES AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE INTENSITY AND WIND
RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN CHANGED AT 48 HR TO REFLECT THIS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 15.3N 72.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 16.7N 71.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 70.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 67.9W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.5N 62.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003
ODETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON RECON AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST FLIGHT
INTO ODETTE HAD TO BE TRUNCATED DUE TO INTENSE LIGHTNING AND SEVERE
TURBULENCE. THEREFORE...THE MAX WINDS NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY WERE
NOT SAMPLED...BUT RECON STILL FOUND 60 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT
0433Z WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS MORE THAN 40 NMI
FROM THE RADAR CENTER. A 06/0310Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED AN 80
PERCENT CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND AN ELONGATED BUT CLOSED
MID-LEVEL EYE. IN ADDITION...A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMS THAT ODETTE
HAS STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.
UNLIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS
SPREAD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...THERE IS MUCH
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THIS MORNING ON A
TRACK ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ABOUT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
ONCE ODETTE EMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY 24 HOURS
...WITH RAPID ACCELERATION BEGINNING BY 36 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...
COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO OR ABSORPTION BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND THEN BASICALLY BACK ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL.
NOW THAT ODETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
HAS DECREASED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT ANOTHER 5
KT INCREASE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ODETTE...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BE
WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE ODETTE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THE
GFDL MAKES ODETTE A 74 KT HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT
THE GFDL ALSO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS HISPANIOLA.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE POTENTIALLY DEADLY
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.5N 72.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 71.3W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/0600Z 20.7N 69.3W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 65.8W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 60.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND TO
THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 995 MB. HOWEVER
THE DROP REPORTED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS SUGGESTING THAT IT DID NOT HIT
THE CENTER AND THE PRESSURE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ODETTE HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT
IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE TO REACH
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC.
ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 TO 12
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER OUTBREAK OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...IN FACT... THEY ARE ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE VERY RELIABLE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.2N 71.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 71.0W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 68.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 08/0000Z 25.5N 64.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 58.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE LOW.
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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003
CORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE
THE LAST FIX FROM THE RECON WAS AROUND 17Z AND INDICATED THAT THE
CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT WINDS AND PRESSURE REMAIN
AT 55 KNOTS AND 994 MB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE BARAHONA PENINSULA AND THE ISLA BEATA WITH
VERY HEAVY SQUALLS. THE WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT AS ODETTE MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE
TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OR TO PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
ODETTE NOT ONLY HAS REFUSED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS
ANTICIPATED BUT IN FACT...IT HAS SLOWED DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL WAS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATEST RUN.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.5N 71.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 68.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 08/0600Z 24.5N 64.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
