EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#141 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat May 28, 2022 9:21 am

Agatha will certainly be one to watch... for both the Atlantic and Pacific.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#142 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 9:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 98.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha
will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make
landfall there on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is
expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late
Sunday or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to
the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall
amounts are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to
10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to gradually become
better organized with a central dense overcast feature and a
series of curved bands evident in the latest imagery. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.5/35 kt, but given recent
trends, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 40 kt.

Agatha is gradually turning to the right, but at a slow forward
speed. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of
285/4 kt. The storm is expected to gradually make a turn
to the north later today or tonight, followed by a slightly faster
northeastward motion on Sunday as Agatha becomes embedded in the
flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest.
This motion should take the storm inland over southern Mexico on
Monday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one
and near the various consensus aids.

The storm is expected to remain in near ideal environmental
conditions of very low wind shear, high SSTs and oceanic heat, and a
moist mid-level airmass until it reaches the coast of Mexico on
Monday. In fact, several of the rapid intensification indices in
the SHIPS model are higher than 60 percent, indicative that rapid
intensification is a distinct possibility during the next day or so.
Given these conditions and guidance, the NHC intensity forecast
remains at the high end of the models and calls for Agatha to become
a hurricane in 24 hours, with additional strengthening expected
until landfall.

Based on the current forecast, new watches and warnings will likely
be required later today.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico
Sunday night and Monday, and a Hurricane Watch remains in
effect for portions of this area. Interests should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#143 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 28, 2022 10:08 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#144 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 28, 2022 10:23 am

Structure improving with every frame, nice bands setup now

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#145 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 28, 2022 11:14 am

VHT's struggling to rotate, indicating there's some shear bothering it. HWRF is also showing some mid level shear bothering this late Sunday, which may cause a tilt in the vortex for a while, though I still expect a Category 1-2 hurricane out of this.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#146 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 11:15 am

Plane for Sunday morning that departs at 9 AM EDT. There will be another mission on Monday norning.

NOUS42 KNHC 281610
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1210 PM EDT SAT 28 MAY 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z MAY 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM AGATHA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0101E AGATHA
C. 29/1300Z
D. 14.1N 98.5W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 30/1530Z
B. AFXXX 0201E AGATHA
C. 30/1100Z
D. 15.3N 97.1W
E. 30/1500Z TO 30/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#147 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sat May 28, 2022 11:20 am

Looks like ADT has finally realized Agatha exists. T2.8/1002mb/41kt initial classification, which lines up pretty well with the storm's intensity of 40 knots.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 28, 2022 11:28 am

Yellow Evan wrote:VHT's struggling to rotate, indicating there's some shear bothering it. HWRF is also showing some mid level shear bothering this late Sunday, which may cause a tilt in the vortex for a while, though I still expect a Category 1-2 hurricane out of this.



There has been this persistent shear to the north of the system since yesterday

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby cainjamin » Sat May 28, 2022 11:28 am

Can see some hot towers rotating around a tiny core on visible. Lines up well with the idea of small but strong storm.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#150 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 28, 2022 11:49 am

Some 40 kts winds from ASCAT hour ago

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#151 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 11:51 am

cainjamin wrote:Can see some hot towers rotating around a tiny core on visible. Lines up well with the idea of small but strong storm.


Small core.

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#152 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 28, 2022 12:10 pm

skyline385 wrote:Some 40 kts winds from ASCAT hour ago

https://i.imgur.com/iokDPgp.png


Supports 45-50 given the low bias for the instrument.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#153 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 28, 2022 12:33 pm

Image

Image

18z HWRF showing less mid-level shear and also drastically more east, now crossing this over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#154 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 12:43 pm

45kt.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...AGATHA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 98.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 98.0 West. Agatha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast is forecast to occur late tonight or Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern
coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is expected
to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late
Sunday or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to
the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore
winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts
are currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting
the coast of southern Mexico early Sunday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#155 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 28, 2022 1:03 pm

aspen wrote:Also a pretty significant east shift, similar to the HWRF.


Most of the HWRF runs were eastwards (except for that one 0Z run) along with the GFS. I am guessing a landfall near Salina Cruz will reduce chances of redevelopment in the BoC because of more land interaction.
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#156 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 28, 2022 1:29 pm

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#157 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 1:32 pm

18z Best track up to 50kt.

EP, 01, 2022052818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 980W, 50, 998, TS
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#158 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 1:34 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 281806
TCSENP

A. 01E (AGATHA)

B. 28/1730Z

C. 13.3N

D. 97.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 3.0. RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND
OVER PAST 24 HOURS GIVES MET OF 3.0 AND PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#159 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 28, 2022 1:47 pm

HWRF and HMON goe left.

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Re: EPAC: AGATHA - Tropical Storm

#160 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 28, 2022 2:25 pm

Image

Lol ASCAT.
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