ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Storm is weakening in perfect conditions. Isn't this odd to anyone?

It probably hasn’t weakened. I don’t think there were any direct observations that supported 45 kt. But yeah a storm remaining this anemic and wasting all this time in an ideal environment is 2022 at its finest.

If it's struggling than clearly the environment isn't ideal. Storms that have these sorts of internal issues take days and days to recover, and today it's only begun that process.

That’s the thing: the environment was forecast to be ideal — very low shear, >60-70% RH, excellent UL outflow, high OHC and SSTs, etc — but clearly the models have missed something significant that’ll impact Ian’s future track and intensity.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120?s=21&t=NCIdgqZB6J3Xs36FpkxzWA

Yeesh, it continues to seem like the models have blown it with their environmental and intensity forecasts in the WCar. Maybe the deep tropics are overall still a little too stable, and we hadn’t realized because of Fiona’s over-performance near and north of 20N?

Yes most of the models had full blown hurricane by 2am this morning

This was also reflected in some of the earlier NHC discussions which had it between 55-60 kts right now, meanwhile its barely 40 kts right now.

[crimi481]

Fiona's tail is the x factor - disrupting Ian's north quad

[toad strangler]

Ian looks like scrambled eggs right now.

It does and it doesn't. Structure looks great. No meat on the bones (CDO)
Ian needs a big meal.

[Pelicane]

Fiona's tail is the x factor - disrupting Ian's north quad

Fiona is way out of the picture now.

[Coolcruiseman]

TVCN shifted well to the east and is now precisely on top of my track. Not good news for Tampa. NHC will follow with an east shift in a couple hours.

From your vantage point do you see it turning N once inland (as the TVCN track appears) or going NE across the Peninsula?

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeesh, it continues to seem like the models have blown it with their environmental and intensity forecasts in the WCar. Maybe the deep tropics are overall still a little too stable, and we hadn’t realized because of Fiona’s over-performance near and north of 20N?

Yes most of the models had full blown hurricane by 2am this morning

This was also reflected in some of the earlier NHC discussions which had it between 55-60 kts right now, meanwhile its barely 40 kts right now.

All it’s going to take is one deep sustained convective burst to put this back on track. That structure is primed

[skyline385]

It probably hasn’t weakened. I don’t think there were any direct observations that supported 45 kt. But yeah a storm remaining this anemic and wasting all this time in an ideal environment is 2022 at its finest.

If it's struggling than clearly the environment isn't ideal. Storms that have these sorts of internal issues take days and days to recover, and today it's only begun that process.

That’s the thing: the environment was forecast to be ideal — very low shear, >60-70% RH, excellent UL outflow, high OHC and SSTs, etc — but clearly the models have missed something significant that’ll impact Ian’s future track and intensity.

Also reflected in the SHIPS forecast which had the MPI at 170 kts since the last 12-24 hours. It has clearly not happened.

[chaser1]

core structure on vis satellite does appear to be better defined but we won't know whether this appearance is merely transient or not until we begin to see sustained convection wrapping/rotating around the apparent center. That could start happening now.... or not. Also, you can throw out D-min as a primary factor against. If conditions are ripe, convective bursting over center should commence. As for motion, I see the same NNW short term motion too. While this may not at all be indicative of true overall motion, any less of a westward trek now might have real downstream implications depending on eventual point of landfall.

[psyclone]

Ian looks like scrambled eggs right now.

It most definitely doesn't. It has phenomenal circulation. it's just convectively skimpy and needs to hit the gym and bulk up. This system reminds me of Florence before it went nuts out in the atlantic. very convectively vapid but had outstanding rotation. Once it developed deep convection it was off to the races. Time will tell if that happens here.

[tolakram]

Fair warning. If you think it's a good idea to start pondering conspiracies here you'll find your posting privilege's removed, at least until Ian is gone. If you're dumb enough to admit you had a post deleted and decided it was a good idea to post a second time you will want to find another forum to spread your BS.

WE HAVE NO TOLERANCE FOR THIS. Apologies to everyone for having to read this, but I wanted to make sure to mention it in thread. Thanks.

[ConvergenceZone]

https://twitter.com/massachusettswx/status/1574113023618437120?s=21&t=NCIdgqZB6J3Xs36FpkxzWA

Not sure this tweet makes much sense. He mentions that it favors the weaker eastern track, but I thought the eastern track suppose to be the stronger track and the northern gulf coast the weaker track, so which one is it? or maybe I'm just missing something?

[skyline385]

Yes most of the models had full blown hurricane by 2am this morning

This was also reflected in some of the earlier NHC discussions which had it between 55-60 kts right now, meanwhile its barely 40 kts right now.

All it’s going to take is one deep sustained convective burst to put this back on track. That structure is primed

Sure nobody is denying that but the question is why hasn't it happened yet when all indicators pointed towards it, even the NHC was expecting it.

[SFLcane]

Ian looks like scrambled eggs right now.

It most definitely doesn't. It has phenomenal circulation. it's just convectively skimpy and needs to hit the gym and bulk up. This system reminds me of Florence before it went nuts out in the atlantic. very convectively vapid but had outstanding rotation. Once it developed deep convection it was off to the races. Time will tell if that happens here.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1574114086224334849

[ronjon]

Structure is primed. I'd expect a CDO to form tonight with DMAX. CAT 1 cane by tomorrow morning.

[CronkPSU]

This was also reflected in some of the earlier NHC discussions which had it between 55-60 kts right now, meanwhile its barely 40 kts right now.

All it’s going to take is one deep sustained convective burst to put this back on track. That structure is primed

Sure nobody is denying that but the question is why hasn't it happened yet when all indicators pointed towards it, even the NHC was expecting it.

was expected to be a hurricane at 2 AM...more than 10 hours to get there still

[LARanger]

my house n mazatlan is nowhere near water unfortunately but has built in metal shutters for security reasons and placed long before my arrival here.. they areblack and solid and donot remove.. these open wide for bright sun and stay nicely set open. can close easily for canes or whatever security reason was imagined on installation. these could be placed in all homes without major cost..is a shame that so many in cane danger zones donot think of using this kind of security against storms. they allow regular window usage and close easily and reopen as easliy. kids can do it. shame usa has not figured this out.

Typically, the assumption that another group hasn't figured out something obvious finds its best utility in comedy. It seldom works well outside that context.

Plenty of Americans have figured out shutter technology for security and storm uses, going back decades. Fortunately, the homeowner before you bore the expense of installation, and neither of you minded the appearance. (Around here, an obvious window security apparatus (e.g. barred windows on older homes) might depress home values in the area by giving the appearance of a high crime zone.) The prior owner could also have chosen to bring in a variety of other products which are available in the US, including large-scale roll-door-esque metal storm shutters that cover entire walls, impact-resistant windows, and various other things not here listed. It's just an odds calculation of expense of purchase and installation versus the probability of break-in by human or hurricane . . . not to mention that having a few boards to nail up or screw in as needed is a lot cheaper, even if it temporarily looks worse.

[SFLcane]

Structure is primed. I'd expect a CDO to form tonight with DMAX. CAT 1 cane by tomorrow morning.

Structure is fine but yet to see any organized convection. Also it’s certainly north of the nhc track for now.

[cheezyWXguy]

This was also reflected in some of the earlier NHC discussions which had it between 55-60 kts right now, meanwhile its barely 40 kts right now.

All it’s going to take is one deep sustained convective burst to put this back on track. That structure is primed

Sure nobody is denying that but the question is why hasn't it happened yet when all indicators pointed towards it, even the NHC was expecting it.

The convective collapse that occurred yesterday was at a time when the low level structure was heavily compromised by competing vorticies. With such a lack of focused low level convergence, subsidence ruled and this takes quite some time to undo. I think there were some tweets from Andy Hazelton and Eric Webb about this posted on some previous pages

[wxman57]

Can I ask a stupid question? Been looking at the storm surge risk maps here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/
It seems like in FL especially south of Ft Myers that a major could easily inundate 5-10 miles inland if not more.
My question is how widespread could these scenarios play out? I assume this map is the absolute worst case for each point on the map if a hurricane was perfectly placed to flood it. That's why it shows flooding in TX, LA, FL all at the same time - it's not responding to a specific storm. Is there a way to visualize what kind of hurricane would create the surge needed to flood a specific place? Or theoretical flooding for a theoretical storm? This map makes it hard to estimate because it just shows hundreds if not thousands of continuous square miles flooded up and down the coast without any way to see what's realistic.

Certainly not a stupid question. Every storm is different. Saffir-Simpson category may play only a small part in surge height. That's why those maps may be somewhat less than useful. The NHC will be producing more detailed probabilistic surge maps 48 hrs from landfall. Maybe Tuesday morning. They will take into account the wind speed and, more importantly, the wind field size. As you know, there are very few mountains along the Florida coast, so a surge could travel inland quite a ways if it's 10-12 feet at the coast. That's particularly true if you're near any inland waterway which connects to the Gulf. Gotta go. Client call.