CPAC: CALVIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

EP, 94, 2023071006, , BEST, 0, 103N, 977W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, ep772023 to ep942023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep942023.dat

[cycloneye]

Hopefully, this one is not like 93E and develops into a good longtracker.

[Kingarabian]

CMC and Euro still make a hurricane out of it. GFS has really backed off on intensity though.

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located
a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week.
The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward,
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2023071012, , BEST, 0, 102N, 989W, 20, 1008, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian 12z ICON and GFS are a little bit stronger.

[NDG]

Not much support of this becoming a hurricane other than from the usual aggressive HWRF & HMON.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located
a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days. The system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian Calvin is there.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

Still has ways to get better organized.

[ElectricStorm]

This also seems pretty broad and is likely a ways away from developing. However this should track more west than 93E is so I think it will have a much better chance to develop. Should see Calvin and hopefully we can get a good hurricane out of this, but I'm skeptical.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian Calvin is there.

https://i.imgur.com/Cj7D0XH.png

Also Euro, but weakens to TD at that point.

[Yellow Evan]

Upper and middle environment is mostly favorable after 36 hours. SSTs gradually drop off but should remain above 26C for about 5 days. System is compact so dry air intrusions less of an issue. We’ve seen similar setups before be grossly underestimated by global models prior to TCG.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian Calvin is there.

https://i.imgur.com/Cj7D0XH.png

Also Euro, but weakens to TD at that point.

https://i.imgur.com/4kZwpP9.png

Waters east of Hawaii are cooler compared to 2014-2018. Looks like any significant impacts need to come from the south.

[Yellow Evan]

Both GFS and ECMWF have a favorable TUTT interaction that could allow for it to retain deep convection for longer than one would expect but it is still dubious outflow from a TC over 23-24C SSTs will destroy the TUTT easily.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The
system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward over the
next several days, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Blown Away]

Kingarabian,
GFS continues liking a TS/Cane into Hawaii… It’s El Niño, so it could happen.

[Teban54]

So the GFS was initially aggressive with this invest becoming a long-track major, then went quiet since 0z 7/8 to the point of almost not showing a hurricane... And now there are two runs in a row with a major again.

Any idea why?