ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 90, 2024090518, , BEST, 0, 280N, 951W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782024 to al902024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902024.dat

[Sciencerocks]

ascat also shows a closed LLC. This could easily become a tropical cyclone. So things are popping!

[Nimbus]

See what the models do with it now that it is distinguishable.
Looks like it beat the area north of Honduras.
I could see a front dropping far enough south to shear most of the precip east away from Texas so even Florida could be affected.

[EasyTiger]

The Middle Atlantic is starting to look bone-dry. My thought is that it's going to take the Caribbean wave coupled with the TX low to form anything significant. The entire system will need strong enough circulation to pull from the EPAC. Interesting days ahead, for sure. I'm extremely curious as to how all of this interacts with the "Fall" front dropping down.

[EasyTiger]

It looks like this system will be around for another 5-7 days. I swear, I've been watching this for almost three weeks now

[LadyBug72]

It looks like this system will be around for another 5-7 days. I swear, I've been watching this for almost three weeks now

I know, right?!?! We were just talking about how long we've been talking about this mess and what it may or may not do.

[Sciencerocks]

All this needs is a good blow up of convection and this will be nameable. I'd go 70%...

[Frank P]

All this needs is a good blow up of convection and this will be nameable. I'd go 70%...

Its gonna need more convection near and around the center for this to be upgraded. Notice the flare of up convection on the south side and east side of the broad LLC in the latest sat images, not sure if they will last or not but certainly needed for strengthening.... Appears its southward motion has slowed down a tad

[Steve]

All this needs is a good blow up of convection and this will be nameable. I'd go 70%...

Its gonna need more convection near and around the center for this to be upgraded. Notice the flare of up convection on the south side and east side of the broad LLC in the latest sat images, not sure if they will last or not but certainly needed for strengthening.... Appears its southward motion has slowed down a tad
https://i.ibb.co/MCjmPb8/39216866-1.gif

It’s going to take a while now with that dry air wrapping in the low center. Mid energy will blast you next couple of days. I got caught in some torrential rain today between Slidell and Diamondhead. Luckily it was mostly spotty back to Florida.

[Frank P]

All this needs is a good blow up of convection and this will be nameable. I'd go 70%...

Its gonna need more convection near and around the center for this to be upgraded. Notice the flare of up convection on the south side and east side of the broad LLC in the latest sat images, not sure if they will last or not but certainly needed for strengthening.... Appears its southward motion has slowed down a tad
https://i.ibb.co/MCjmPb8/39216866-1.gif

It’s going to take a while now with that dry air wrapping in the low center. Mid energy will blast you next couple of days. I got caught in some torrential rain today between Slidell and Diamondhead. Luckily it was mostly spotty back to Florida.

Steve, I been waiting for a good blast for the past couple of years....nothing really significant on the MS coast yet, but I got a plethora of cameras set up along with my weather station to capture anything if it does come this way... take care old friend...if ya ever passing down HWY 90 and have time let me know and maybe we can have a few drinks on the front porch.

[ROCK]

Waiting for that wave to cross the Yuc and juice things up a bit. ICON has been jacking with this thing for weeks now. I might have found a favorite model to hug...lol

[Frank P]

Waiting for that wave to cross the Yuc and juice things up a bit. ICON has been jacking with this thing for weeks now. I might have found a favorite model to hug...lol

If I had my choice, I would go with the Sports Illustrated models but yeah Rock I get your point...

[tolakram]

Waiting for that wave to cross the Yuc and juice things up a bit. ICON has been jacking with this thing for weeks now. I might have found a favorite model to hug...lol

What did the NAVGEM do to deserve this?

[mpic]

Ok I am obviously confused about which depression.is which lol

[Frank P]

Ok I am obviously confused about which depression.is which lol

Oh wait what, huh, did I miss something, is there a TD out there?

[mpic]

No, I should have said Invest...90 and 99...confused!

[HurricaneBrain]

Funny thing is the Navy and ICON are both in agreement on a solution where this system moves south and the Caribbean system energizes it into a north-moving NS. This solution is becoming more plausible by the hour IMO.

Waiting for that wave to cross the Yuc and juice things up a bit. ICON has been jacking with this thing for weeks now. I might have found a favorite model to hug...lol

What did the NAVGEM do to deserve this?

[Frank P]

Station 42019 pressure down 29.79 in as the lowest I could find in the area

[Nimbus]

Ok I am obviously confused about which depression.is which lol

Oh wait what, huh, did I miss something, is there a TD out there?

Really dry circulation not sure it can deepen much more but its trying

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42019

[Frank P]

Ok I am obviously confused about which depression.is which lol

Oh wait what, huh, did I miss something, is there a TD out there?

Really dry circulation not sure it can deepen much more but its trying

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42019

Ha, I just posted this about a minute before you...