ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

No development this time, to close to land, however 93L may get a 2nd shot at developing down the road in the gulf again, storybook isnt closed on this one yet even if it loses the “ invest “ name

If you fall off the horse, get right back on.

[HurricaneBelle]

this system is putting the "L" in 93L, a lot of rain for a lot of people and not much more

[BobHarlem]

Big convective blowup just east of Louisiana, but not where it needs to develop.

[MGC]

Heavy rain and lots of lightning here in Pass Christian currently......MGC

[Stormcenter]

Whatever is south of Biloxi looks suspicious.

[Stratton23]

Stormcenter i believe thats an upper level low, non tropical

[Frank P]

Whatever is south of Biloxi looks suspicious.

I got 3/4 in of rain and wind gusts up to 22 mph out of the south about 45 minutes ago, it’s definitely tropical downpours. Winds have died down now and are only 4 mph out of the SSW.

[Javlin]

Stormcenter i believe thats an upper level low, non tropical

I think that is the ole MLC now back 100 miles S of Pensacola you see a small tower what I think was the old LLC(?) not that any of us expect much from this point out is just rain...just an obs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface and radar observations indicate that a westward-moving broad
area of low pressure continues to be located near the coast of the
western part of the Florida Panhandle. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located south to
southwest of the center. This system is forecast to continue moving
westward across the northern portion of the Gulf tonight, and is
expected to reach the Louisiana coast by Thursday. If this system
moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf
appear generally favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form over the next day or so before the
system moves fully inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida tonight and continuing for
portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. For
additional information, please refer to products issued by the
Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Papin

[BobHarlem]

Close to last visibles of the day:

[Sciencerocks]

Probably has a closed LLC and in fact it has had a closed LLC for the past 48 hours or since it was off Florida. One could probably say it is a depression. Probably no more then 25 knts but I've seen 20 knt depression in the 1990's.

[sasha_B]

Probably has a closed LLC and in fact it has had a closed LLC for the past 48 hours or since it was off Florida. One could probably say it is a depression. Probably no more then 25 knts but I've seen 20 knt depression in the 1990's.

Sustained winds are up to 30 kts and has continued deepening (albeit slowly) according to the 0z best track update. I think that forecaster Papin's remarks in the latest outlook from the NHC - and the fact that they've not lowered TC formation chances at all - suggest that this is a possibility they're considering. If it consolidates it will have little time to strengthen, but not zero.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1945638198220034492

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Recent satellite wind data, in combination with surface and radar
observations, indicate the broad area of low pressure located over
the far northern portion of the Gulf remains quite disorganized. In
addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
displaced well west of the broad center. While some additional
development of this system remains possible over the next 12-24
hours, its current structure suggests its chances of developing into
a tropical depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later
today are decreasing.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[wxman57]

Trof axis is moving into southeast LA now. No development. Wind offshore is generally in the 15-20 kt range. General rainfall 1-3 inches across south LA. Some areas could receive 4-6 inches through tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf Coast (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low
pressure area over northern Gulf is located just south of the coast
of Mississippi. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest
of the center. Some development could occur before the system moves
westward into Louisiana later today or tonight, although the
chances of the system developing into a tropical depression are low.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Low moving thru Paseaguola, Miss.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf Coast and Southeastern Louisiana (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low
pressure area is moving inland over southeastern Louisiana, and
that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest
of the center. Little development is expected while the center
remains near the coast this afternoon and tonight, and the system
is expected to weaken as it moves farther inland on Friday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TomballEd]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf Coast and Southeastern Louisiana (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low
pressure area is moving inland over southeastern Louisiana, and
that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest
of the center. Little development is expected while the center
remains near the coast this afternoon and tonight, and the system
is expected to weaken as it moves farther inland on Friday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

It is well and truly dead. Models suggest little to no rainfall from this makes it to Central Texas which is good news.

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf Coast and Southeastern Louisiana (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low
pressure area is moving inland over southeastern Louisiana, and
that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest
of the center. Little development is expected while the center
remains near the coast this afternoon and tonight, and the system
is expected to weaken as it moves farther inland on Friday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

It is well and truly dead. Models suggest little to no rainfall from this makes it to Central Texas which is good news.

Yeah, this should be at 0% now and I thought the prior ones at 30% were too high.

I consider 93L to be a big fail for the ICON. But that’s of course good news.