ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

First model runs take it to the Texas Mexico border as a weak TS

[cycloneye]

18z Euro has a reflerction moving NW to South Texas.

[Stratton23]

Even though it only has roughly 2 days over the gulf, shear is favorable and models show an ULAC forming right over the top of 98L while its in the gulf, I dont trust this one at all

[TomballEd]

Other than a few Euro ensembles, this doesn't have much support.

[LarryWx]

Other than a few Euro ensembles, this doesn't have much support.

Hey Ed,
That’s the thing about the SW Gulf. Many times when they become TCs they had little or no prior model support, which I assume you realize.

[Stratton23]

If i was a betting man, id bet my bank account this becomes fernand sometime later this evening with a landfall between south padre island and corpus, dont think global models have a good handle on 98L, it looks pretty healthy on satellite, will be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find this afternoon since they probably will fly into it because its got pretty good convection, hurricane models tease fernand out of this

[TomballEd]

Other than a few Euro ensembles, this doesn't have much support.

Hey Ed,
That’s the thing about the SW Gulf. Many times when they become TCs they had little or no prior model support, which I assume you realize.

I noted on discussion page for 98L it is looking good today and what I expected. I stated I'm 98% confident it doesn't Humberto/RI. If it looks this way this afternoon, I don't see how NHC doesn't PTC it for warnings for Mexico and maybe Deep South Texas.

12Z models will be interesting to see.

[Horn1991]

If i was a betting man, id bet my bank account this becomes fernand sometime later this evening with a landfall between south padre island and corpus, dont think global models have a good handle on 98L, it looks pretty healthy on satellite, will be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find this afternoon since they probably will fly into it because its got pretty good convection, hurricane models tease fernand out of this

I'd bet you're correct on the Fernand, but I just don't see how this feature comes in as far North as Corpus.

[Stratton23]

Horn1991 corpus is cert a possibility, and the euro / euro aifs have been pretty consistent in that general area, right now the NHC has the “ center” south of the convection, but if a LLC tries to get going more north under the convection, that would generally put more of the texas coast in play, but corpus is probably the most extreme north solution on models

[wxman57]

12Z ECMWF, GFS, and ICON have it inland by Brownsville by early afternoon tomorrow. No closed isobars. Just rain.

[LarryWx]

12Z ECMWF, GFS, and ICON have it inland by Brownsville by early afternoon tomorrow. No closed isobars. Just rain.

But keep in mind that the models often miss quick developments of small TCs in the SW Gulf.

[wxman57]

12Z ECMWF, GFS, and ICON have it inland by Brownsville by early afternoon tomorrow. No closed isobars. Just rain.

But keep in mind that the models often miss quick developments of small TCs in the SW Gulf.

Yeah, I'm aware. Hopefully this one just moves ashore around noon and causes some rain. Recon finds no evidence of an LLC and little evidence of even a surface trof. Convection appears to be decreasing.