ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[GCANE]

60 hrs out and 75% chance of a Cat4, 35% for Cat5.
Peaks around 8AM Monday north of Hispaniola.
Right about where the CoC and ULL, driving the poleward outflow channel, are at the same latitude.

[GCANE]

60 hrs out and 75% chance of a Cat4, 35% for Cat5.
Peaks around 8AM Monday north of Hispaniola.
Right about where the CoC and ULL, driving the poleward outflow channel, are at the same latitude.


https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2025al05/problcat/2025al05_problcat_202508150600.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052025_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/151736_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Forgot to mention that a straight due-north course induces a secondary Coriolis force which may strengthen Erin more than what the models are forecasting.
This is a little known effect and not built into the models.

[Teban54]

Eye cleaning out?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=thRZQXd5Spc
Levi's new video

[GCANE]

Eye looks pretty small on LWIR.
May see a pinhole again.

[sasha_B]

Eye cleaning out?

https://i.postimg.cc/g2jGtTm7/goes19-ir-05-L-202508151315.gif

Maybe not clearing quite yet but it does seem to be warming. Eye was 25nm in diameter and eyewall was open as of around 16z (final VDM) though, so improvements in appearance and drops in pressure may be gradual/sporadic until it can remain closed.

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2025081518, , BEST, 0, 187N, 568W, 65, 993, HU

[zzzh]

[sasha_B]

T4.5 at 18z (per NOAA) and since then we've seen the eye start warming quite a bit (before it was obscured by that big convective burst in the eastern eyewall). Intensification is ongoing and possibly accelerating though of course we'll need direct observations from recon to confirm.

[LarryWx]

Any guess as to what the total ACE will be from Erin? It’s already at over 4.

[aspen]

Nice big convective burst rotating upshear into the struggling NW quadrant. That should help close off the last open section of the eyewall. Maybe we’ll see intensification pick up tonight.

[LarryWx]

If Erin reaches cat 4 and sustains it for a couple of days or at least on and off, I think that at least getting close to 30 total ACE would be attainable.

[cheezyWXguy]

We’ll see what recon finds, but erin could already have a pressure well into the 980s now. That huge burst has been wrapped around the core and seems to be comprising the full cdo now. New pink dots showing up around the eyewall and maybe a slight rewarming of the eye. Think it’s go time.

[aspen]

We’ll see what recon finds, but erin could already have a pressure well into the 980s now. That huge burst has been wrapped around the core and seems to be comprising the full cdo now. New pink dots showing up around the eyewall and maybe a slight rewarming of the eye. Think it’s go time.

You called it. 983.5mb extrap, with hurricane force FL winds in that newly filled NW quadrant.

[MarioProtVI]

We’ll see what recon finds, but erin could already have a pressure well into the 980s now. That huge burst has been wrapped around the core and seems to be comprising the full cdo now. New pink dots showing up around the eyewall and maybe a slight rewarming of the eye. Think it’s go time.

You called it. 983.5mb extrap, with hurricane force FL winds in that newly filled NW quadrant.

This is NOAA though which has a known low MSLP bias so the real pressure is probably around 986-987 (pending VDM/dropsonde). Still solid deepening

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If Erin reaches cat 4 and sustains it for a couple of days or at least on and off, I think that at least getting close to 30 total ACE would be attainable.

Non-zero chance Erin flirts with Category 5 status on Monday, IMHO.

[zzzh]

Dropsonde has 986mb with 14kt wind

[KirbyDude25]

We’ll see what recon finds, but erin could already have a pressure well into the 980s now. That huge burst has been wrapped around the core and seems to be comprising the full cdo now. New pink dots showing up around the eyewall and maybe a slight rewarming of the eye. Think it’s go time.

You called it. 983.5mb extrap, with hurricane force FL winds in that newly filled NW quadrant.

This is NOAA though which has a known low MSLP bias so the real pressure is probably around 986-987 (pending VDM/dropsonde). Still solid deepening

Dropsonde just recorded 986/14kt, which supports 984-985 mb. It's deepening at a rate of at least 2 mb/hr now.

[Kingarabian]

Should get the Atlanfic some good ACE and hopefully clear all land areas. The best type of hurricanes.

[psyclone]

Nice to see a phat photogenic long tracker in August for a change. These seem rare in recent years. I'm sure the east coast surfers are excited...as they should be. Beautiful long period swells for days incoming. Feels like that bell ring is close at hand. Welcome to hurricane season gang...the real season.